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Election analysis. Public Policy analysis. Non-partisan thinktank. Want insights that go beyond sentiments? Take a deep dive with us.

Jun 9, 2018, 15 tweets


Today we explore loopholes in Nigeria's electoral system that could threaten the credibility of 2019 Presidential Election & trigger post-election violence. We also share what citizens, @INECNigeria & non-state actors can do.

Take a deep dive with us.


68% of PVCs representing 21.4m of the 31.7m citizens accredited to vote in 2015 presidential election failed full accreditation with the Smart Card Readers and had to use incidence forms for accreditation.

Only 32% or 10.3m of PVCs presented passed full accreditation.

42% of 31.7m citizens accredited to vote (i.e. 13.4m) used incidence forms because @INECNigeria's Smart Card Readers could read their PVCs BUT COULD NOT verify their fingerprints as the authentic owners of the PVCs they presented.

This problem was prevalent in the North:

Recall that European Union (EU-EOM) raised concerns in 2015 about the implausibly high PVC Collection Rates in 11 states. 7 of those states had the highest number of people who couldn't verify with their fingerprints as authentic owners of the PVCs they presented during election

26% of 31.74m citizens accredited to vote (i.e. 8m) used Incidence Forms in 2015 because @INECNigeria's Smart Card Readers couldn't read their PVCs at all. This problem occurred predominantly in the South accounting for 67% or 5.4m of the 8m PVC holders affected nationwide.

Of the 31.74m Nigerians accredited to vote in 2015 presidential elections, 7% (representing 2.3m people) COULD NOT cast their votes, 93% (representing 29.4m people) were able to cast their votes.

Nigerians need to ask the authorities, "Why?"

What steps have @INECNigeria @NGRPresident @NGRSenate @HouseNGR taken to ensure that the 21.4m PVCs in circulation that failed in 2015 (i.e. failed either PVC authentication or biometric authentication) will work during 2019 elections? #NigeriaDecides #NigeriaDecides2019

INEC's Smart Card Readers failed completely or lost their data in 21,484 of the 119,973 Polling Units in 2015 Presidential Elections. @USAIDNigeria @IRI_Africa @EUinNigeria @DFIDNigeria need to work w/@INECNigeria to find out what went wrong & prevent it in 2019.

In developing countries, a sense of foul play before or during elections typically sows seeds for disruption of peace/security & ultimately, violence & post-election assassinations. However, with proactive measures, #PeaceIsPossible @Dev4Security @NnamdiObasi @ChigozirimOdink

Recall that 48hrs after presidential election results were called in 2015, the REC for Kano, Munkaila Abdullahi, his wife & two daughters turned up dead. Till date no one knows if he was murdered by those who needed to cover up foul play or those angry at Kano's role in 2015


1. @INECNigeria needs to require all citizens to authenticate with their fingerprint before collecting PVC. This serves 2 purpose:
a. It ensures the PVCs will work as expected on D-Day.
b. It prevents PVC buying & proxy PVC collection that was rampant in 2015

2. The @NGRSenate/@HouseNGR needs to direct @INECnigeria to test the 21.4m PVCs in circulation that failed full accreditation at the 2015 polls using Random Sampling method to ensure they are working &prevent this anomaly from repeating itself in 2019 elections


3. Extend CVR registration & PVC collection time to weekends; most regions having large numbers of abandoned/uncollected PVCs have more people in formal/informal jobs during @INECNigeria's official time (9AM-3PM) for the exercise.


4. 844,519 votes of all Votes Cast were declared invalid for breaching established balloting rules in 2015. This calls for more Voter Education especially through short demonstration videos etc in local dialects on how to handle ballot papers on election day.


5. Development Agencies & Civil Society in Nigeria need to provide more technical support to @INECNigeria to increase their capacity to provide data in timely, granular & easily digestible formats.

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