𝐒𝐭𝐞𝐩𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐓𝐚𝐩𝐩 🇨🇦 🌎 Profile picture
Deputy Chief Economist & Trade Research Director @ExportDevCanada | @OEAEconomics Board | Chart connoisseur | Twitter pollster | PhD | Views mine. #CdnEcon

Jul 13, 2018, 14 tweets

Tomorrow @PeterGHallXIII and I will be discussing the latest results from @ExportDevCanada's Trade Confidence Index (our semi-annual survey of 1,000 Canadian exporters).

In addition to the usual questions on the outlook, we've added #NAFTA, investment, #CPTPP and more. #CdnEcon

...Here's a rundown of the results, starting with a short video by @PeterGHallXIII to tee up the release of @ExportDevCanada's latest Trade Confidence Index #CdnEcon

Key finding 1: Since our last survey, Canadian exporters have become more optimistic about the near-term outlook - due to by higher expected domestic and export sales.

...Gains in EDC's Trade Confidence Index were broad-based, and occurred for all:
- firm sizes,
- sectors of the economy; and
- regions of the country.

...I see a notable divergence between Canadian exporters' experiences (i.e., order books) and general perceptions (in dramatic media coverage).

Despite elevated uncertainty regarding U.S. trade policy, more Canadian exporters have actually experienced growth in U.S. orders.

...More Canadian firms expect their export sales to grow. This is consistent with Bank of Canada's recent projection update - which raising its export forecast, even after increasing the restraint coming from U.S. trade policy action and uncertainty on Cdn exports & investment.

...More Canadian exporters expect to increase hiring in the next six months, but say they are facing increased challenges in accessing skilled labour (which is consistent with recent Bank of Canada's business outlook survey results on a similar question).

...More Canadian companies plan to increase investment. In particular, we see an emerging trend of more action -and interest- on the part of Canadian firms to invest abroad (including directly in the U.S. market, perhaps to avoid tariffs or that threat; China plans also notable).

...In our survey, Canadian exporters are highlighting two main risks: one of which is natural at this point in the business cycle (rising interest rates); the other is the result of heightened uncertainty in global trade, primarily driven by U.S. trade policy actions and threats.

...Not surprisingly, a growing share of Canadian exporters say ongoing #NAFTA talks have had a negative impact on their company's Canadian operations (28%, up from 23% in the last survey). with highest concerns in transportation, for large firms, and those in Ontario & out West.

...#NAFTA talks are having a negative impact on investment plans for Canadian exporters, reflecting an “investment hesitation” by some firms. All told, we estimate that up to 6% of Canadian firms are delaying their investments because of the elevated level of uncertainty.

...We also see Canadian firms responding to the uncertainty in the US market by diversifying their global operations.

In our last survey, there was a significant increase in the number of Cdn exporters who have started exporting to new countries and those who plan to do so.

...You can find more results in a longer version of this deck I posted on slideshare slideshare.net/StephenTapp/ex… #CdnEcon

...And now @PeterGHallXIII is getting ready to do an interview on @BNNBloomberg to discuss the latest results from the @ExportDevCanada Trade Confidence Index #CdnEcon

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