Thread by @ValueAnalyst1

2018 Q3 Update

This thread presents my quarterly projections, which I believe if #Tesla achieves, would value $TSLA at $2,500 by 4Q21 and $5,000 by 4Q23. I use them to track @Tesla's progress. Poll follows each projection. Please vote, discuss, and retweet for larger sample.

Model S/X
- 2H18: High demand due to credit phaseout
- 30% GAAP gross margin by 4Q18
- Refresh: Interior in 2019; 2170s in 2020
- 2020+ expansion in Asia, LatAm, ME
- Savings benefit customers
- 2025: 200k S/X per year @ 30% GM
$TSLA Intrinsic Value: $1000

Please characterize☝️ projection for Model S/X

$TSLA

Model 3
- Burst: 6k Sep, 7k Dec, 10k 4Q19
- GM: 18% 3Q, 20% 4Q, 25% 4Q19
- Savings thereafter benefit customers
- GF3/4/5/6 by 2022/23/24/25
- 2025: 2m per year @ 25% GM
$TSLA Intrinsic Value: $1000

Please characterize☝️ projection for Model 3

$TSLA

Model Y
- First: 1Q21; Hell ends: 3Q21
- GM: 15% 3Q21, 25% 1Q22+
- Savings thereafter benefit customers
- GF3/4/5/6 by 2022/23/24/25
- 2025: 2m per year @ 25% GM
$TSLA Intrinsic Value: $1000

Please characterize☝️ projection for Model Y

$TSLA

Semi
- First: 3Q20; Hell ends: 1Q21
- ASP: $200k; GM: 25% 2Q22+
- GF3/4/5/6 by 2022/23/24/25
- ⚡️ ASP: 7c/kWh; Cost: 5c/kWh
- 2025: 200k per year @ 25% GM
$TSLA Intrinsic Value: $1000

Please characterize☝️ projection for Semi

$TSLA

Roadster
- First: 2Q21
- Hell ends: 4Q21
- GM: 30% 3Q22+
- 2025: 10k per year
$TSLA Intrinsic Value: $1000

Please characterize☝️ projection for Roadster

$TSLA

Pickup & Compact & Other
- First: 2Q22
- ASP: $50k
- GM: 25% 2Q23+
- GF3/4/5/6 by 2022/23/24/25
- 2025: 2m per year @ 25% GM
$TSLA Intrinsic Value: $1000

Please characterize☝️ projection for Pickup & Compact & Other

$TSLA

Energy
- Excludes Solar Panels
- Solar Roof growth 2019+
- Powerwall growth 2019+
- Powerpack growth 2020+
- Long-term GM: 20% to 25%
- GF3/4/5/6 by 2022/23/24/25
- 2025: Similar size to Automotive
$TSLA Intrinsic Value: $1000

Please characterize☝️ projection for Energy

$TSLA

Tesla Network (software)
- Starts at the end of 2019
- Excruciatingly slow adoption
- Long-term participation: 30%
- Revenue share: 25%
- GM on rev. share: 50%
- 2025: 5% of revenues
- 2025: 10% of gross profits
$TSLA Intrinsic Value: $1000

Please characterize☝️ projection for Tesla Network

$TSLA

Gigafactories (sanity check)
- Excludes NY GF2
- 200 GWh per GF per year
- 2025: 6.4m vehicles
- 2025: 10m Powerwall
- 2025: 400 GWh Powerpack
- 2025: 1.2 TWh Capacity
$TSLA Intrinsic Value: $1000

Revenue & Gross Profit
Breakdown sanity check
$TSLA Intrinsic Value: $1000

Common Size
Income Statement
R&D/SG&A assumptions
$TSLA Intrinsic Value: $1000

Discount Rate: 19%
Late Stage Venture Capital
Profitability will lower risk
$TSLA Intrinsic Value: $1000

$TSLA Revenue Projection

#NotSellingAShareBefore1000

$TSLA GAAP Net Income Projection

#NotSellingAShareBefore1000