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Sep 24, 2018, 18 tweets

Possibly unwisely, I’m going to stick my neck out and say that while @UKLabour’s Brexit motion is, as it always would be, a bit of a fudge, it is a positive move and contains some very important stuff. Important to read the whole thing though. H/T @LabPeoplesVote 1/

Disclaimers: I’m not a Labour supporter, there are some negatives (e.g. focus on “Hard Brexit”, not “Brexit”), and I would of course liked it to go further. 2/

1. Acknowledgement that the harm of Brexit cannot be simply undone by a future Govt. This is against the ‘let them screw it up and we’ll get power’ thinking prevalent in some quarters. 3/

2. Clarity that ALL of the six tests must be met in full or Labour will vote against. They won’t be, we know that, so unless they try to wriggle out with a ‘this is not the final deal’ line on the WA, they’re voting against it. 4/

(The Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration are not the final deal on a future relationship of course, but they are the final time Parl will be able to vote with any alternative other than a cliff edge at the end of transition as an option, so it would be an awful move)5/

3. An outright rejection of No Deal as a policy option and a pledge to oppose it. This is important. I’ve argued UKGov should do the same. In conjunction with 2 above, this Labour would have to find another option than the WA/PD and No Deal. 6/

4. Reference to Trade Unions putting deals back to their members. Hard to argue that the corollary of that is MPs rather than the public, though the reference to ministers may be intended to keep that open. Taken at face value though, it means the public. 7/

5. Pro-cooperation in Europe here, but, more importantly, a commitment (not new) to no hard border in Ireland. This points at EEA/CU as a minimum acceptable (or acceptance of a backstop permanently). 8/

6. Forget technological drones carrying unicorns 9/

7. The most reported bit. ‘If no GE’, ‘all options’ and ‘including campaigning for a public vote’ are fudgey, and its understandable people are disappointed. Look at the sentence after though, and it’s quite a different story. 10/

If this passes, that the Govt. “should not be afraid to put that deal to the public” becomes Labour policy. That line can and must be used constantly, and I’m sure it will be. Hard to oppose putting the deal to the public when that line is policy and in common use. 11/

8. I know its non-commital, but this can only be taken on if UK is an EU member. Shouting about how to reform from outside would be utterly pointless. Maybe I’m being to positive thinking that people get that, of course. 12/

So, it’s not what I and I’m sure lots of Remain campaigners, including in Labour, wanted. There’s room for more fudge and chicanery from the FB, and I have a hard time trusting them not to do that. However... 13/

However, theres stuff here that it would be very hard to wriggle out of, and which would be used by many Labour members to stop such chicanery. 14/

Hard to see how Labour could vote yes in a meaningful vote, and the commitment to avoid No Deal means it would need amendments for something else. There’ll be no renegotiation at that point, so this points at a #PeoplesVote / #FinalSay.

And it can’t be No Deal vs Deal, as No Deal is ruled out as an option. 15/

So, I maintain caution, scepticism, and mistrust of fudge and purveyors of fudge, but I do think this is positive. 16/16

P.S., and a huge caveat. McDonnell’s comments this morning ruling out a Remain option may well render this thread entirely wrong. The Q is whether the motion or he sets policy. In principle, the motion, but in practice is what matters.

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