Mattarella has just spoken. He confirmed the problem was over the appointment of the finance minister. He said he was open to a ‘political appointee’, not to someone who would sleepwalk Italy out of the euro. He concludes that arguing for ‘Ital-exit’ should be done openly. #Italy
+++ The 5 Star Movement is now reportedly considering an impeachment of Italy’s President Sergio Mattarella.
+++ Mattarella has just summoned former IMF official Carlo Cottarelli tomorrow morning, presumably to ask him to form a government. This will be absolutely toxic for the anti-establishment parties. #Italy
Cottarelli was the head of the IMF fiscal affairs department and has since set up a watchdog of Italy’s public finance. Now compare and contrast that with a 5 Star/League government which wanted to increase borrowing by up to €125bn a year. Quite a contrast...
The League and the 5 Star Movement can easily derail any attempt by Cottarelli to form a new government by voting together against his government (they hold a majority). It’s hard to see how Italy will not face elections soon.
Meanwhile, the League and Silvio Berlusconi don’t back the 5 Star Movement’s calls for impeaching Mattarella. What if the past 10 days were just a ploy to try and win an outright majority for the centre-right at the next election? #Italy
(Just a thought: were Italy to hold a new election in the autumn, this would coincide with the last few months of ECB quantitative easing. Not a great prospect for Italy’s sovereign bonds...)
In an important @repubblica interview the League Salvini criticises Berlusconi for sounding like Angela Merkel and praises 5 Star leader Di Maio, says the past few weeks show they can work well together. Is this a prelude of things to come? #Italy
If the League and 5 Star were to form a coalition, this would turn Italy’s next general election into a de facto referendum on euro membership. Of course, the two parties will deny it and say it is about ‘sovereignty’. #Italy
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1 - There is a lot of confusion over why Italy’s President #Mattarella chose to veto Paolo Savona as finance minister, leading to the collapse of a possible 5 Star-League government. Here’s a short thread explaining what he said last night. #Italy
2 - The main problem was Savona’s explicit support for a ‘Plan B’ to leave the euro - which he did not withdraw before receiving the nomination. This plan had to be secretive, according to a set of slides he co-authored in 2015.
3 - If you are an investor in Italian bonds and you think the finance minister may have a secret plan to leave the euro, what you do? You sell your government bonds, as you fear you will be paid back in a less valuable currency (Lira). This causes a self-fulfilling crisis.
+++ A copy of the draft 5 Star/League agreement (dated yesterday) has been leaked to @HuffPostItalia - I am going to tweet the most relevant sections. Full link below. huffingtonpost.it/2018/05/15/un-…
1) Five Star and the League expect the @ecb to forgive 250 billion euros in Italian bonds bought via quantitative easing, in order to bring down Italy's debt
2) The two parties want to re-open European Treaties and to "radically reform" the stability and growth pact. The coalition would also want to reconsider Italy's contribution to the EU budget.
Good morning all from Rome - as you can see I have opted for the large moka pot this morning. We will all need it! Here are a few thoughts on #Italianelections2018 after an extraordinary night.
1. There are two ways to look at this #ItalianElection2018. One is the electoral outcome: a badly hung parliament. The other is the political message: an anti-establishment triumph.
2. Let's start with the electoral arithmetics. It's ugly. None of the three blocs (Centre-right, Centre-left, 5 Star Movement) will be able to secure a majority. We will need some form of grand coalition, which, in a way is what we always expected.