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Jun 1, 2018 17 tweets 7 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
The needle shifted a little further into the red zone with concerns over an expanded security vote chest, an import rate hike bound to affect fuel prices, talk of water colonies, and the CBN’s continued fixation on forex.
The glue that holds up the inefficient political system in #Nigeria, and skews it against both the will of the people and a level playing field for better candidates to emerge, is the existence of slush funds that warp campaign funding.
Security votes rank high up in upholding this system.

When the existence of the security votes is taken along with the abysmal security situation across the country, the irony is not lost on observers.
Until black funds like these are unavailable to the state governors and @AsoRock, not much progress will be made in reforming our political system.
The proposed bill on water resources, the latest front in the raging debate over the appropriate amount of federalism and devolution necessary for #Nigeria’s development, is not only causing a rift between federal lawmakers,
it appears to be splitting states along what appears to be regional lines.

#Rivers, in the South for example, says that “states have conceded so much in #Nigeria, particularly those in #NigerDelta.”
#Ekiti, also in the South, has called the bill “a subterfuge to achieving another version of the failed cattle colony” and an effort in “recolonising the states for the benefits of the few.”

#Bauchi, in the North, is not only in support, it plans to create a regulatory unit.
Others such as #Kwara (Middle Belt) and #Osun (South) declined to state their official positions.

PANDEF, the group of #NigerDelta elders, on its part, said the bill was provocative.
As more southern states continue to weigh in on this issue and northern lawmakers and states double down, expect the political rhetoric to sharpen and legal challenges to be prepared – land and natural resources are nominally vested in state governors via the 1978 Land Use Act.
is large and increasingly unwieldy, yet still possesses the appetite to expand its responsibilities even more.

Most states will double down in order to protect their legal turf.

In the inevitable clash of interests, ordinary Nigerians will profit little.
While the price pressures brought by rising crude oil prices will arrive at our shores, @AsoRock is unlikely to allow prices rise in a season of electioneering, especially the price of petrol.
Hence we expect the subsidy bill currently borne via @NNPCgroup back-channels to rise dramatically, with further pressure on exchange rate to rise upwards.
Balancing the price of petrol and the exchange rate will lead to policy decisions which will be short term expedient, but damaging in the long term.

When @AsoRock finally has no choice but to pass the price increases to Nigerians in one go, the impact will be swift and heavy.
Recent happenings in the global markets are clearly spooking Mr. Emefiele who has made it clear that his primary goal is price stability.

Internationally, the US dollar has been strengthening due to many factors – political turmoil in #Italy and other @EU_Commission countries;
easing trade animosities between #America and #China; the American withdrawal from the multilateral nuclear pact with #Iran and continued #Brexit talks.
On the local scene, an exit of foreign portfolio investors and the approaching summer holiday break and minor Hajj are pushing the demand for dollars.

These factors and more have forced @cenbank to act in order to minimise exchange rate fluctuations.
As for BDC operators, they see @cenbank’s increased FX sales from $40k per week to $60k per week as insufficient, while loosening the requirements for banks to sell FX to customers over the counter as hostile to their survival.

The overall outlook is not pretty.

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More from @sbmintelligence

Sep 28, 2018
There was cheery news that regulators had seen the error of their ways regarding indiscriminate use of iron fist tactics.

This step forward was blunted by events such as leap backwards in Osun, a problematic strike action, and a return to bad old habits by a bus company.
On 25 September, @cenbank governor, Godwin Emefiele, said that he was optimistic the regulator would resolve the dispute in a way that will ensure that “everybody will be happy.”

We think this is a belated attempt at reassuring waning investor sentiment towards the country.
A day earlier, @SBGroup, one of four banks @cenbank alleged helped @MTNNG illegally repatriate $8.1 billion, said the regulator may review a decision to penalise its West African unit.
Read 27 tweets
Aug 31, 2018
Aso Rock picked on the bankers of the opposition in a busy week that also saw it acting coy on personal civil liberties and rolling the carpet for two of the EU’s most powerful leaders. All these occurred while cocoa simply could not find its way to the country’s main ports.
@officialEFCC’s interest in @ZenithBank’s transactions involving @riversstategov signals a willingness on the part of @MBuhari's administration to focus on the latter given its pre-eminence in the political architecture of the opposition @OfficialPDPNig.
@riversstategov has emerged as the hub and financial nerve centre of @OfficialPDPNig – a position that has seen its governor, @Gov_Wike, as one of the most important figures within the party's ranks, if not its most influential kingmaker.
Read 19 tweets
Jul 20, 2018
President Obasanjo once called maintaining Nigeria Airways (NAL) irresponsible. Six years later, one of his successors, despite a petition from former NAL employees appealing for ₦45 billion in severance pay, is shopping the world for an investor for a proposed national carrier.
Between a ferocious fight over revenue sharing, and ignoring the obvious on Boko Haram, bad ideas seem to die slowly, such that it has almost obscured the recognition Nigeria’s music industry got from the world’s largest music label.
The latest #BokoHaram attacks don't suggest a resurgence of the group so much as they demonstrate its resilience, capacity for strategic hibernation and stealth.

They also indicate that the financing with which it procures weapons and its recruitment remain largely uninhibited.
Read 27 tweets
Jun 29, 2018
Plateau’s bloody week holds important long-term consequences for the rest of the country, as does our global poverty profile, the President taking a swipe at restructuring advocates, and the finance ministry’s chest thumping while not saying much.
The #Plateau incident underscores the simmering nature of multiple low and medium intensity conflicts occurring across #Nigeria, a historically certain prelude to a total breakdown of law and order.
Inter-communal distrust has continued to escalate with cyclical patterns of strife in conflict areas.

The pervasive loss of confidence in @AsoRock as a neutral arbiter is a key factor in this escalation as it encourages communities to adopt vigilantism with catastrophic results
Read 20 tweets
Jun 6, 2018
Yesterday, a rare joint session of both houses of @nassnigeria met and issued resolutions that has set it on a collision course with @AsoRock, and holds important political and economic consequences for #Nigeria as it stares down the barrel of #election2019.
The tension between the 2 most important arms of the FG, both controlled by @OfficialAPCNg, has endured through the tenure of @MBuhari's administration and is consequential for the party, for the wider political state of the country and in driving economic policy.
Federal lawmakers, in passing a vote of confidence in the principal officers of @NGRSenate and @HouseNGR, condemned the “systematic harassment and humiliation by @AsoRock of perceived political opponents, people with contrary opinions including legislators and the judiciary,”
Read 24 tweets
Mar 12, 2018
The Egmont Group, an international body of 155 Financial Intelligence Units that provides a platform for the secure exchange of expertise and financial intelligence, meets from today, March 12, 2018, until Thursday, March 15.
A deadline to Nigeria to separate its National Financial Intelligence Unit from the EFCC lapsed yesterday, without Nigeria enacting a law that would have done so. The likely outcome of the Egmont Group’s meeting will be Nigeria’s expulsion from the group.
In July 2017, @EGFIU lost patience with #Nigeria and suspended the NFIU because of @officialEFCC's habit of leaking sensitive financial intelligence to the media.

@officialEFCC had also refused to cooperate in efforts to grant the NFIU operational independence.
Read 19 tweets

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