Assessment of #Iran

1. Several provinces and cities are likely to run out of water this summer. A few cities are already experiencing lack of water. This is likely to lead to greater unrest.

2. The economy continues its decline with major capital flight reported.
Additional sanctions are likely to hasten the economy’s death spiral, leading to major unrest.

3. Overall the public mood in #Iran can be described as explosive. Contrary to some analyses, #iranians have not rallied around the flag in response to Trump’s policies.
4. The movement to overthrow the regime is growing. There is no one specific party or group that leads it, but younger Iranians seem to be a big part of it. Lack of centralized leadership has pros & cons but it prevents regime from crushing opposition easily.
5. The regime’s position in the ME is also under pressure as its bases are attacked in Syria and its influence challenged in Iraq. Internal unrest will put further pressure on the regime’s regional position.

6. What happens next is impossible to predict. But Iran is going
Through one of the most turbulent times in its modern history. Chaos and violence on a massive scale are very possible.

7. This is the most leverage the US has had against the regime in the last 39 years. But DC shouldn’t think the game is over. The regime has proven itself
Capable of getting out of crises again & again.

8. US financial pressure against the regime has proven to be very effective. But other areas are lagging, especially in the realm of information and opposition support.

9. Despite new initiatives, VOA Persian is likely to be
Ineffective unless major management & programming changes are made.

10. And the US is disengaged from the #Iranian opposition. It seems like the US can’t make up its mind either. It pursues regime change policies while stating that it doesn’t want regime change.
DC has to be all in if it wants positive changes in #Iran.

11. Ultimately the situation in #Iran is tragic & depressing. Iranians are under severe pressure. But Iranians have also proven capable of surviving many calamities. They’ll survive the Islamic Republic as well.
But they have to make the right decisions. And DC has to make the right decisions as well, otherwise the future of US-Iran relations and America’s position in the Middle East could become even bleaker.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Alireza Nader علیرضا نادر

Alireza Nader علیرضا نادر Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @AlirezaNader

Jul 25, 2018
The last 8 months has been one of the most eye opening times in my life, both personally & professionally. The December uprising showed me the critical state of #Iran. It was always hard to get information on areas outside of Tehran. But the uprising opened a whole new world.
As protestors took to the streets, I watched dozens of videos of people expressing their anger & desperation. I watched regime forces shooting & beating poor & thirsty people. I saw the world react with indifference. I saw how how the regime used the nuke agreement 2 oppress
#Iranians. I always knew how terrible this regime was. But the extent of its destruction became more clear than ever. I never thought Rouhani would improve #Iran. But I hoped that the benefits of the nuke agreement would trickle down. Maybe 30% of returned assets would be spent
Read 9 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!


0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy


3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!