In March I did 2 #brexitforensics stories - one re unusual gagging clauses injected into consultations with business, & 2. “throw open the borders” plan for No Deal Brexit, referred to in memo leaked to S. Times today
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reports of this memo confirm my story then, which was widely followed up in press, and in Commons at the time - that UK wont enforce customs, livestock, phyto sanitary and other checks if there’s No Deal, because it can’t. Hopes that EU reciprocates:
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... But fairly evident now EU will enforce its customs laws duties, checks and regulations, if that was ever in doubt. In any event, it is not within our power, or any UK politician to make guarantees over what EU27 will do... so trying to work out consequences seems v necessary
... so you may ask, why you havent heard more about this if it was such a serious risk of major disruption... well this is where the story about the Brexit business gagging clauses come in.. they are very real, I have one in my possession: news.sky.com/story/brexit-g…
Still, off record, our #brexitforensics reports established that, quietly,
*nuclear companies activated plans to reposition nuclear materials as contingency against No Deal
*pharma cos stockpiling drugs on diff sides of post Brexit borders
* auto companies moving supply chains
& eg... This is a text I got off a director of one of the most important border trade logistics providers last month...
... anyway, if the response to this research is “Project Fear” I look forward to your volunteering for service on M20, at Dover, Channel Tunnel and Holyhead on April 1st 2019...It all hinges on a judgement that a no checks No Deal will be reciprocated by EU, based on no evidence.
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NEW: First Minister of Scotland @NicolaSturgeon tells me at SNP conference “it would be my position “that Northern Ireland backstop on single market being negotiated right now should also apply to Scotland
The First Minister tells me she is “not going to stand in the way of NI having a solution to its issues” but that a NIO-only backstop raises “profound concerns on my part” for the competitiveness of Scotland and losing investment to Northern Ireland
I suggested to FM that surely that would imply checks on the England-Scotland border...
She said “I don’t want checks ... lets wait and see how this all plays out”
The border checks acknowledged by @simoncoveney to @SophyRidgeSky are east-west GB->N Ireland ones on food/farm produce, not North-South ones. not sure how much further that gets us, when senior DUP sources have said they would not accept any increase in what is checked...
salient fact here: offer indicated by PM amid her demand for “respect” after Salzburg was such extra NI checks/ regulatory alignment with Ireland could only be contemplated if approved for NI by Stormont - as of last week had been rejected by EU/IE, & DUP said wd veto there
nothing on paper yet though, and there is of course, no NI Assembly to reject anything...
There is some potential wriggle room, however, for example, if any further east-West checks required, could be one way ie not west-east, enabling NI produce free access to U.K. AND EU
Ministers are well aware of this case, I’ve been told that its significance may be being underplayed, I had been told that the Government would seek to appeal the Court of Session’s reference to the ECJ, but apparently didn’t, or haven’t at the most appropriate opp this week...
This is the actual reference from Scotland’s highest court directly to the European Court of Justice asking for a clarification on whether EU Law (ie Article 50) allows for unilateral revocation dropbox.com/s/3sq5dvjh8ruc… via one of the petitioners @JolyonMaugham
It could have got rather interesting constitutionally if the UK Gov had asked the Supreme Court to overrule Scotland’s highest court asking the EU Court whether a UK Govt had theoretical option to revoke A50 without negotiation, options it says it does not want.
Johnson calls the PM’s Chequers proposals
“Not pragmatic not a compromise.. this is not democracy, not what we voted for... it is a constitutional outrage” to cheers...
Says to fudge it now and fix it later “is a total fantasy”
“Chequers will only embolden those calling for a second referendum” says Johnson...