Thread by @faisalislam

Live on Sky News Tonight - new #BrexitForensics story as European Governments issue advice to their exporters not to use parts from Britain - Top car exec tells me “catastrophe” for UK auto
#rulesoforigin

Dutch Government official advice to its business community warns its manufacturers “if a large part of your product consists of parts from the UK” they may lose free trade terms for exports.

“After Brexit, parts made in UK no longer count towards this minimum production in EU”

The Government would argue that this is premature, but the likes of the Dutch are already advising their manufacturers to reduce dependence on UK:
“Trade with the UK will become more difficult after Brexit... consider looking for alternatives”

Dutch Gov advice to its biz:
“opps for market access for UK competitors are deteriorating. Their access to EU countries is deteriorating. Your UK competitors may also not be able to use EU trade agreements. Check whether to strengthen your competitive position in these markets”

While we were working on this Dutch story, the European Commission put out a similar technical note on the rules of origin issue: “As of withdrawal date, the UK becomes a third country. UK inputs are considered 'non-originating'," it says.

Full document: ec.europa.eu/taxation_custo…

In theory could be sorted by 1. Being in customs union 2. something called cumulation (both bilateral and diagonal, of course)... but that definitively requires A Deal - ie forget No Deal if you want this sorted. Indeed even the THREAT of No Deal has allowed the Dutch to do this

Government was told about all of this rules of origin stuff about a month after the referendum by Civil Servants, and in detail by the Japanese memo from Sept 2016:
news.sky.com/story/japans-u…

Government response to story: This is about No Deal preps

Company responses:
Eg safety valve manufacturer in Bristol “Seetru” said there was an “oh my god” moment when they realised that their customers in Europe couldn’t buy from them and didnt have the infrastructure to deal with expected UK certificates of origin

Automotive chief exec told me: “hard Brexiters have lit a bomb under the car industry, and the EU have lit it” warning that this was a “catastrophe” for UK auto and that UK does not have the scale to simply grow its own content

Also worth knowing advice detailed above from Dutch authorities to business (remember key perhaps closest ally in EU) also showed extraordinary level of preparedness, including vouchers for advice for Dutch biz to take advantage of deterioriating market access from UK competitors

Anyway full story here: news.sky.com/story/european…

But this is just Part 1.

Part 2 coming up on All out Politics at 10am including -
- a recent UK trade negotiator explaining the warnings, ignored, given to top of Government
- and why post Brexit British cars, arent
#rulesoforigin

Also me in an i8 and r8 and a milk float at a test track - I wont be auditioning for the spare presenting slot on Top Gear...
Also @SamuelMarcLowe with Adam Boulton after my #brexitforensics part 2 at 10am on two way trouble for Brexit on Rules of Origin...