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Jun 6, 2018 24 tweets 15 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Yesterday, a rare joint session of both houses of @nassnigeria met and issued resolutions that has set it on a collision course with @AsoRock, and holds important political and economic consequences for #Nigeria as it stares down the barrel of #election2019.
The tension between the 2 most important arms of the FG, both controlled by @OfficialAPCNg, has endured through the tenure of @MBuhari's administration and is consequential for the party, for the wider political state of the country and in driving economic policy.
Federal lawmakers, in passing a vote of confidence in the principal officers of @NGRSenate and @HouseNGR, condemned the “systematic harassment and humiliation by @AsoRock of perceived political opponents, people with contrary opinions including legislators and the judiciary,”
complained of the current “reign of fear and intimidation” in the country’s politics, urged @NGRPresident to “take immediate steps to contain the growing level of unemployment and poverty,” called for “competitive and inclusive” #elections2019,
and perhaps most important, warned that @nassnigeria will “not hesitate to evoke its constitutional powers if nothing is done to address the above resolutions”.

The immediate motivation was a move by @policeNG to invite @BukolaSaraki, for questioning over robbery allegations.
The relationship between @policeNG and @nassnigeria has descended to new lows, with the IGP, Ibrahim Idris, refusing to appear before lawmakers on a number of occasions over the course of the year.
The legislators communicated their “vote of no confidence on Idris who does nothing other than preside over the killing of innocent Nigerians.”

@BukolaSaraki is far from the only federal legislator within @policeng's radar.
was arrested and prevented from leaving the country in May on alleged corruption charges which he and his colleagues see as politically motivated.

@ShehuSani was also invited by @policeNG over being allegedly implicated in a murder case in April this year.
has been leading a pack of @OfficialAPCNg politicians who first bandied together as part of a breakaway faction of @OfficialPDPNig – and have variously alleged marginalisation and a lack of inclusiveness within the APC since they joined.
His candidacy for @SPNigeria was not supported by @MBuhari and a large part of the APC establishment, but was ultimately successful in part because he secured the support of the significant PDP Senate caucus which saw a reason inflict a first political setback on @NGRPresident.
remains a significant political force and amid growing discontent with @OfficialAPCNg, his next actions will be a useful barometer for determining whether the ruling party heads into #election2019 from a position of strength or weakness stemming from disunity.
It is not far-fetched to envisage a mass exodus of influential politicians away from @OfficialAPCNg or backroom deals with powerful APC and @OfficialPDPNig state governors in states that are not favourably disposed to @MBuhari.
Such deals could harm @MBuhari's reelection chances.

As a former state governor, @BukolaSaraki still maintains strong ties with most current state governors as well as many former state governors, some of whom are now his colleagues in @NGRSenate.
Politically, we are of the opinion that there will be no impeachment of @MBuhari.

The number of those against him in @nassnigeria is simply not large enough to put together the majority required for such a move.
However, on economic policy, as they have shown in the recent past, @nassnigeria can place blocks in the plans of @AsoRock.

In an election season, governance, already on the back burner, will be stymied by these new developments.
The status of #budget2018 remains unclear despite @nassnigeria passing the Appropriation Bill amid claims from @AsoRock that @MBuhari is still studying the bill.

Don't expect a quick response from @nassnigeria if @NGRPresident makes significant changes to what he received.
will have reduced motivation to pass important reforms in critical sectors like oil and gas, power and infrastructure, which might deliver crucial wins for the administration, wins which it could sell to the Nigerian electorate as the elections draw closer.
A united party would have been hard pressed to deal with substantial policy issues with #election2019 less than a year away, but with the ongoing impasse, real governance would be next to impossible, making doing business in #Nigeria less attractive due to political risk.
This is not to say that @BukolaSaraki’s support in @NGRSenate is unanimous.

He has resorted to the questionable measure of suspending dissenting members, most recently being the suspension of @OvieOmoAgege which culminated in the fiasco of thugs making away with the mace.
and @AsoRock in prioritising politicking over crucial issues is a recurring theme.

When Nigerians became vocal about alleged incidences of impunity and extra-judicial killings orchestrated by a special unit of @policeNG in #EndSARS, there was little response.
Structurally, the @MBuhari administration has been hampered by the infighting and the functional breakdown in coordination between its constituent arms, the most prominent sign yet of the wider fracturing of #Nigeria's politics.
As questions of restructuring, devolution, respect for rights, the increasing breakdown of law, order and security and wider unease with the performance of the economy abound, more Nigerians will begin to vocally express their discontent with the ruling elite,
which notwithstanding their affiliations, they will begin to hold responsible for their present economic malaise – a recipe for increased uncertainty on a number of fronts as they contemplate their choices at #election2019.
Read the complete analysis here -…

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More from @sbmintelligence

Sep 28, 2018
There was cheery news that regulators had seen the error of their ways regarding indiscriminate use of iron fist tactics.

This step forward was blunted by events such as leap backwards in Osun, a problematic strike action, and a return to bad old habits by a bus company.
On 25 September, @cenbank governor, Godwin Emefiele, said that he was optimistic the regulator would resolve the dispute in a way that will ensure that “everybody will be happy.”

We think this is a belated attempt at reassuring waning investor sentiment towards the country.
A day earlier, @SBGroup, one of four banks @cenbank alleged helped @MTNNG illegally repatriate $8.1 billion, said the regulator may review a decision to penalise its West African unit.
Read 27 tweets
Aug 31, 2018
Aso Rock picked on the bankers of the opposition in a busy week that also saw it acting coy on personal civil liberties and rolling the carpet for two of the EU’s most powerful leaders. All these occurred while cocoa simply could not find its way to the country’s main ports.
@officialEFCC’s interest in @ZenithBank’s transactions involving @riversstategov signals a willingness on the part of @MBuhari's administration to focus on the latter given its pre-eminence in the political architecture of the opposition @OfficialPDPNig.
@riversstategov has emerged as the hub and financial nerve centre of @OfficialPDPNig – a position that has seen its governor, @Gov_Wike, as one of the most important figures within the party's ranks, if not its most influential kingmaker.
Read 19 tweets
Jul 20, 2018
President Obasanjo once called maintaining Nigeria Airways (NAL) irresponsible. Six years later, one of his successors, despite a petition from former NAL employees appealing for ₦45 billion in severance pay, is shopping the world for an investor for a proposed national carrier.
Between a ferocious fight over revenue sharing, and ignoring the obvious on Boko Haram, bad ideas seem to die slowly, such that it has almost obscured the recognition Nigeria’s music industry got from the world’s largest music label.
The latest #BokoHaram attacks don't suggest a resurgence of the group so much as they demonstrate its resilience, capacity for strategic hibernation and stealth.

They also indicate that the financing with which it procures weapons and its recruitment remain largely uninhibited.
Read 27 tweets
Jun 29, 2018
Plateau’s bloody week holds important long-term consequences for the rest of the country, as does our global poverty profile, the President taking a swipe at restructuring advocates, and the finance ministry’s chest thumping while not saying much.
The #Plateau incident underscores the simmering nature of multiple low and medium intensity conflicts occurring across #Nigeria, a historically certain prelude to a total breakdown of law and order.
Inter-communal distrust has continued to escalate with cyclical patterns of strife in conflict areas.

The pervasive loss of confidence in @AsoRock as a neutral arbiter is a key factor in this escalation as it encourages communities to adopt vigilantism with catastrophic results
Read 20 tweets
Jun 1, 2018
The needle shifted a little further into the red zone with concerns over an expanded security vote chest, an import rate hike bound to affect fuel prices, talk of water colonies, and the CBN’s continued fixation on forex.
The glue that holds up the inefficient political system in #Nigeria, and skews it against both the will of the people and a level playing field for better candidates to emerge, is the existence of slush funds that warp campaign funding.
Security votes rank high up in upholding this system.

When the existence of the security votes is taken along with the abysmal security situation across the country, the irony is not lost on observers.
Read 17 tweets
Mar 12, 2018
The Egmont Group, an international body of 155 Financial Intelligence Units that provides a platform for the secure exchange of expertise and financial intelligence, meets from today, March 12, 2018, until Thursday, March 15.
A deadline to Nigeria to separate its National Financial Intelligence Unit from the EFCC lapsed yesterday, without Nigeria enacting a law that would have done so. The likely outcome of the Egmont Group’s meeting will be Nigeria’s expulsion from the group.
In July 2017, @EGFIU lost patience with #Nigeria and suspended the NFIU because of @officialEFCC's habit of leaking sensitive financial intelligence to the media.

@officialEFCC had also refused to cooperate in efforts to grant the NFIU operational independence.
Read 19 tweets

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