Thread by @felicitycallard

This is fascinating by @MikeOtsuka on logic & motivations of #USS Test 1 (& how Test 1 might be met without de-risking), based on talk at @bsaweel Pensions Symposium. We've invited Mike to contribute longer piece for @OpenUPP2018 at @USSbriefs medium.com/@mikeotsuka/ho… #OpenUPP2018

.@MikeOtsuka's piece links to #USS discussion document sent as response to a Qu & challenge from Mike (sent by USS & linked to a meeting Mike had w USS executives on 23 March 2018). This adds to archive of #USS materials (cc. @ForPension) drive.google.com/file/d/1Q4r6tE… #OpenUPP2018

The #USS discussion document ("Response to Prof Michael Otsuka for discussion purposes") is dated 22 March 2018 with authors Guy Coughlan, Jeff Rowney, Steve Towers. Author in document properties is Jeff Rowney drive.google.com/file/d/1Q4r6tE… #OpenUPP2018

.@MikeOtsuka says that at #USS meeting (which I assume included at least some of authors of discussion document), the requirement to make it possible to close DB scheme within 40 yrs was based on PWC's assessment of strength of the covenant medium.com/@mikeotsuka/ho… #OpenUPP2018

And @MikeOtsuka links here to the recently available #USS document "Covenant Review for the 2017 Valuation: summary of initial conclusions for consultation with sponsoring employers" (first circ. Sept 2016) uss.co.uk/~/media/docume… #OpenUPP2018

I had a look at this "Covenant Review" in a thread I did a few weeks ago

https://twitter.com/felicitycallard/status/998111147965468672

– with a particular focus on how risk was being assessed in it by PwC, #USS itself, & EY Parthenon (through its review of HE sector dynamics) #OpenUPP2018

In putting together @MikeOtsuka's recent piece on Test 1 – & #USS saying Test 1's rationale is that it is *possible* to close DB scheme within 40 yrs – & Covenant Review for 2017 Valuation I am even more interested in how PWC (& USS) assessed the strength of covenant #OpenUPP2018

Can someone whose researches in this field (REMINDER: I work on how human sciences elicit & analyse daydreams – which might or might not have a relationship to #USS pension dispute) write a #USSbriefs on #USS covenant review & risk for @OpenUPP2018 @USSbriefs? #OpenUPP2018

In particular, how are temporal horizons imagined & made real? Why, is it the case that PWC's ability to 'see' beyond 30 years becomes hazy? Why is it that after 40 years, using @MikeOtsuka's phrase: 'Here be dragons?' 🐉🐉🐉 medium.com/@mikeotsuka/ho… #OpenUPP2018

Oh, and another thing – in terms of understanding the tight circuits driving the imaginaries around risk & pensions:

Jeff Rowney, co-author of discussion document prepared for @MikeOtsuka (drive.google.com/file/d/1Q4r6tE…) is currently Head of Funding Strategy at USS #OpenUPP2018

Jeff Rowney moved to USS straight from PwC where he was a Partner whose expertise included dealing with pension deficits (pwc.co.uk/industries/for…) #OpenUPP2018

Rowney was listed as a PWC contact on PWC's "Pensions remain a huge challenge for UK employers" (2010) events.pwc.com/uk/eventsmss/v… #OpenUPP2018

PWC's "Pensions remain a huge challenge for UK employers" (2010) events.pwc.com/uk/eventsmss/v… advised on various challenges & opportunities – including closing/reducing DB schemes & managing legacy DB liabilities. Worth a read 📖 #OpenUPP2018

PWC's "Pensions remain a huge challenge for UK employers" – screen shot of what the report addresses events.pwc.com/uk/eventsmss/v… #OpenUPP2018

To return to #USS Test 1: @MikeOtsuka argues: 'Rather than trying to persuade USS to reject this objective [making it possible to close DB scheme in 40 yrs], we should challenge ... chosen means of realising it' medium.com/@mikeotsuka/ho…

#OpenUPP2018

But I still want to know how to account for the 'here be dragons' scenario 🐉

So please can someone write for us at @OpenUPP2018 @USSbriefs on:

risk &/or
covenant horizon &/or
modelling of future UK HE economic scenarios

&/or pension 'futures' in general
#OpenUPP2018
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