Thread by @MeanLin1

1/ So after a bit of searching I managed to find the joint #TrumpKim declaration. Here's my take:

Nothing terrible happened so that's good. Though as I've argued here, the damage was probably already done when we agreed to a "summit". affiliatenetwork.navisioglobal.com/2018/06/korean…

2/ There were four points I will discuss out of order:

First: Commitment to repatriate POW/MIA remains --> Great!

3/ Secondly, the #TrumpKim Joint Declaration also agreed to build a "stable peace regime" on the Korean Peninsula.

No idea what that means but ok that sounds good. At least now it's back in the hands of professional diplomats and generals.

4/ Third point of the #TrumpKim Joint Declaration sounds like the big one but there are two reasons "work towards complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula" may not be as huge as it sounds.

4a/ We've heard "Work towards denuclearization" from #DPRK before haven't we? Clinton heard that from Kim Jong Il remember? "Nuclear Free Korean Peninsula" was what they called it and we ended up with a nuclear detonation a few years later. Boom.
history.com/news/north-kor…

4b/ #Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula means our nukes have to go as well. Ours were withdrawn in 1991 so does that mean we must remove South Korea from our nuclear umbrella? Who does that benefit? Definitely not the South Koreans. The Japanese will start wondering too.

4c/ We also need to consider the impact on proliferation. Gaddafi gave his #WMD program to the State Department and we ousted him for it. Kim built a nuke and he got the red carpet.

What message will this send to #Iran deprived of their "good deal" and still in the Axis of Evil?

5/ But the fourth and most important point of the #TrumpKim Joint Declaration is the one Kim wanted most and which completely changes the game. To "establish new US-DPRK relations" probably means a US Embassy in Pyongyang and will make #reunification that much harder.

5a/ The #TrumpKim "summit" didn't completely destroy hope for reunification of #Korea, remember USA had relations with East Germany for 16 years and they reunified.

But our allies in #Seoul just took a massive hit to their claim to the throne.

5b/ At some point the South Koreans will realize that accommodation with #DPRK was only good for them if achieved via ROK-DPRK bilat or via multiparty talks. The direct US-DPRK rapprochement cuts #Seoul out of the deal. #MoonJaeIn will pay the price at the polls.

6/ We now have to consider what security in N. Asia will look like.

China won't be comfortable with a US-friendly #DPRK. They will then bolster ties with ROK. Seoul will happily do so for economic reasons and because they will realize USA is no longer all that into them.

7/ Japan is happy that the very real nuke threat may be over but they will find the growing #ROK hostility towards them will accelerate as Seoul cozies up to China. Backed by China, ROK will escalate its claim to its disputed island thereby testing USA's loyalty to Japan.

8/ Japan, #Taiwan, and others will also wonder how much they can trust USA at this point. I wouldn't be surprised if #Japan discusses rearming at this point. If that occurs in earnest, war is just around the corner.

9/ So despite the ambiguity of what #TrumpKim actually achieved, my hat's off to Mr. Trump who accomplished far more than I thought he would. Whether he bumbled into this ass backward or not is irrelevant, he got Kim to say the same thing his father said and that's not bad.

10/10 In summary:
-#Denuclearization means little
-ROK got screwed
-Iran will build a nuke
-China and USA have new friends
-Japan will rearm

Catastrophic Success? affiliatenetwork.navisioglobal.com/2018/06/korean…