Thread by @GuillaumeVdLoo

Thread: Some comments (and possible diplomatic/legal solutions) on Italy’s new government threat to not ratify #CETA (a more detailed analysis in my article bit.ly/2JHXjTG with @RamsesWessel and bit.ly/2BmunHG (open access)) #FTA #EUtrade

2/ As long as Italy does not notify the non-ratification, there is time for creative diplomatic solutions (cf. Decision Heads of State/Government MS on Ukraine AA after Dutch referendum) or legal solutions (see below))

3/ But worst-case scenario that Italy makes such a notification, the ratification “permanently and definitely” failed (according to Statement 20 of the Council on CETA’s signature) (on these statements, see also bit.ly/2f4bj7W )

4/ In this case, CETA's provisional application needs to be terminated “in accordance with EU procedures” (see @EUCouncil statement above), this means after a proposal from the COM and decision of the Council (consent EP not required).

5/ Therefore Italy can’t terminate unilaterally the provisional application of CETA (which only covers EU exclusive competences).

6/ One option could be to convince Italy to not notify the non-ratification and just continue with the provisional application (unlikely…)

7/ Another option would be to give Italy a symbolic concession, for example by including new Italian GIs to CETA (Annex 20) through the procedure foreseen in Art. 20.22 (decision Joint Ctee) ((although no MS has a more GIs protected in CETA than Italy (41 in total))

8/ History repeats itself… Italy has also temporarily refused in 2000 to conclude the EU’s agreement with South Africa due to concerns about GIs (related to Grappa)

9/ This new CETA episode illustrates that ‘splitting’ of EU FTAs (EU-only FTAs/mixed investment protection agreements) after Opinion 2/15 is much needed (see recent Council conclusions on this (bit.ly/2khblwm)) + COM proposal signature Singapore FTA)

10/ This option prevents the EU constitutional problem that a Member State can block the Union from exercising its exclusive competences by torpedoing a mixed agreement (which mainly covers EU exclusive competences)