Thread by @LeopoldTraugott

Quick thread on what is happening in Germany right now, where Merkel’s conservative bloc of CDU and CSU is in open conflict over migration policy. #CDUCSU 1/

It is no news that Merkel’s CDU and her Bavarian CSU-allies are divided over migration - this has been the case since at least 2015. Merkel’s desire for a liberal, multilateral approach doesn’t chime well with the CSU’s desire to pull an Orban (or at least Kurz) 2/

But now CSU has upped the ante & basically demands that asylum seekers should be sent back at the German border. Merkel fears the chain-reaction this may trigger within the EU (among other reservations). She wants more time to find EU-wide solution to reduce numbers. 3/

Specifically, Merkel asked for TWO WEEKS for further EU negotations. Which is a bit of a joke if you consider how complex and protracted the migration debate in Europe is atm. But well - never underestimate Merkel’s ability to come up with some last-minute solution... 4/

So why is this row escalating NOW? Many point to Bavarian elections in October, where CSU is afraid of losing too many votes to far-right AfD. Wouldn't be the first time CSU attacks Merkel to strengthen their own profile. But there is more to this. 5/

This dispute is part of an ongoing fight about future direction of CDU & CSU more generally. Most in CSU want a hard move to the right - they cherish relations with Orban, Kurz, Salvini, and adopt their rhetoric. Some in CDU agree with this, but majority don’t. 6/

For more details on this debate, see this @euobs piece I wrote with @JGopffarth this week. (Surprise surprise - I don’t think a sharp drift to the right is the answer for German conservatives. But let’s continue...) 7/ euobserver.com/opinion/142069

Where do things go from here? The CSU runs the Interior Ministry, and thus would have the power simply to go ahead and implement its border policy even without Merkel's approval. They could just send the forces to the border. This, however, is unlikely to happen. 8/

Why? If CSU pulls through, Merkel basically has two options. 1) She accepts, which would be a statement of her absolute powerlessness, 2) She forces Seehofer out, in which case coalition likely to break down. Knowing Merkel, its v unlikely she goes for option 1... 9/

The alternative would then be to kick out CSU leader & interior minister Seehofer - which would most likely end coalition. And CSU, despite all posturing, has no interest in being put out of power. They will likely climb down - the question is just when & at what price. 10/

There are again a lot of doomsayers around, predicting the #Merkeldaemmerung. But, as rightly pointed out by other key observers of GER politics (eg @NinaDSchick,@politixs), you should never underestimate her. So far, she has still come out on top most of the times. 11/11