Thread by @wataboutery

#BJPDumpsPDP

Chanakya Neeti at work!

I sense an election being advanced to January.

No exams, but ahead of an exam season, thus no vacations 😭 for NOTA-Hindus

One Nation One Election (practically) with many state elections likely to be clubbed with Parliamentary polls

Jammu-Kashmir
Rajasthan
Madhya Pradesh
Chhattisgarh
Odisha
Andhra Pradesh
Telangana

Karnataka - in-fighting
West Bengal - 356
Kerala - 356
Tamil Nadu - dissolution
Delhi - implosion

Possible candidates for state elections with Parliamentary polls

Arunachal Pradesh
Sikkim
Mizoram

And additionally

Haryana
Jharkhand
Maharashtra

Arunachal Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Odisha - all go to polls in June-2019, but the last 3 being opposition-ruled, might need more than a nudge for simultaneous polls!

Sikkim also is due to have its Assembly polls in May-2019, but that can be clubbed with the former!

Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan are due in Jan-2019.
Mizoram is due for polls in Dec-2018

Postponement of these 4 assembly polls for 6 months or advancing the previous five ahead by half-year can merge into one grand poll in 9 states + the Centre.

Jammu-Kashmir is added to the potpourri now. Having a minority or governor government would mean a 10-state group going into polls.

Haryana, Jharkhand & Maharashtra are due to have their assembly polls in late 2019 (Nov-Dec) or early 2020 (Jan).

They are BJP-ruled states!

By advancing their elections, we have already 13 state-polls being brought together into ONE grand mother of all polls

JK-HR-RJ-MP-MH-CG-TS-AP-OD-JH-SK-MZ-AR

These 13 are natural candidates to have their polls unified with Parliamentary elections.

There are the 5 odd ones as well.

Kerala & Bengal are in a big dog-fight with the center. And their local conditions are also very law-and-order challenged. The silence of NaMo & A-Shah is very pregnant. They are biding their time, IMO. At the most opportune moment ...

... the iron will be struck. When the provocation gets responded to with (what else, but) an on-ground violent response by Commie & TMC-goons, 356 will be invoked, seemingly well-justified. While MSM will cry hoarse (when didn't they?), the public will realize that the Center ..

... is finally acting to save the lives of people. In neighbouring TN, Dumeels will be all over the place anyway. They require nothing but an atmospheric pressure change to start agitating. Don Quixotic it may sound, that is how they are made of these days.

AIADMK, Rajinikanth and Kamal Hassan all will scramble their energies together and launch an all-out effort to get the state to polls, however divided they may be at the hustings or ideological moorings.

Rest of the opposition will be like a pack of velociraptors ...

... snapping at each other, biting each other's heels, while also messing up an opportunity to make a difference. That way, the ruling ADMK will call for the dissolution of the assembly (with some nudge from he-who-must-not-be-named) and join the 13+2 states going to polls.

Karnataka won't last as long as Oct-Nov (my guess) & will be ready for the next round of polls. Hopefully NOTA Dhimmi Hindus will see the merit in giving a clear mandate, after all, by then.

That makes for 17 states.

JK-HR-RJ-MP-MH-TS-AP-OD-CG-JH-SK-AR-MZ-WB-KE-TN-KA

Then comes my favorite state (!?) - DL

95% seat holders will implode

21 Office-for-Profit disqualifications, random dharna candidates, mass disaffection, on-street agitational politics: all will culminate in a summary dismissal

This completes the 18-state grand-election masti!

Does Chanakya think the same way?

Interesting times ahead, IMHO.

Please read my first tweet in this thread. A mention is made about the vacation options during elections.

2004 elections were lost, among other things, due to vacationing Hindus, who let X and M voters vote their favorite party - the treacherous INC - to power.

Wikipedia information:

Tuesday 20 April - 141 constituencies
Monday 26 April - 137 constituencies
Wednesday 5 May - 83 constituencies
Monday 10 May - 182 constituencies

Since the dates are in Apr-May, by when exams would have been broadly over (except for entrance exams) ...

... there surely was an incentive for folks to go on leave and enjoy the extended or contrived or bridged holidays.

2014, once again an IMO point, was a watershed year. Folks were for sure tired of corruption & galvanized by NaMo, and so were there to vote.

If the 2019 elections are nicely configured (in terms of dates) and voting intent consolidated (in terms of reason-to-come-to-the-booth-and-cast-it-for-India) ... there is a very distinct possibility of NaMo Return.

My guess is that the need for compelling dates will force us to see these elections getting clubbed up together.

The dates would be chosen in such a way that there is maximization of voting percentages. The month of March is for board & final exams. April-May for entrace exams.

February is for prep-exams. December will be winter vacations.

That brings to us the window of Jan-2019.

Or November-2018 (remember 7th is Diwali - after which festival numbers become thinner)

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