Julie Laumann 🌻 Ï Profile picture
Jun 25, 2018 232 tweets >60 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
"Trump has used Harley-Davidson as an example of a US business that is being harmed by trade barriers. Yet Harley has warned consistently against tariffs, saying they would negatively impact sales"

Harley, hit by tariffs, shifts some production overseas apnews.com/6c8942f7363743…
Important issue highlighted by @riotwomennn: are tariff exemptions determined by bribes?

Corker: "22,000 companies have asked for exemptions.There is no basis to deal with them. Are they going to grant these exclusions based on political contributions?"
Trump’s trade war with the European Union is going to cost Harley-Davidson as much as $100 million a year and force the manufacturer to shift production out of the U.S. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
“A company that is as connected to America, and Americana, as Harley is probably going to be laying off U.S. workers in favor of foreign workers and going to be losing money as a result of this. There’s a lot of irony here, to put it mildly”
"The tremendous cost increase, if passed onto [Harley's] dealers and retail customers, would have an immediate and lasting detrimental impact to its business in the region"

Harley-Davidson to move some production from US because of retaliatory EU #tariffs nyti.ms/2KiwXUa
Harley-Davidson's CEO Matthew Levatich urged Trump not to withdraw from TPP because his company needed the Asian market to survive.

When Trump threatened a trade war, Levatich warned that tariffs would hurt his business.

Trump ignored him.

But it's Harley's fault.
"The list of job casualties will continue to grow, with an estimated net loss of 400,445 jobs over the next 3 years because of the steel and aluminum tariffs, quotas and retaliation.

That’s 16 jobs lost for each steel or aluminum job gained."
"About one-fourth of [Jack Daniel's producer] Brown-Forman's sales come from Europe, so the E.U. tariffs have the potential to significantly hurt the company's bottom line"

Jack Daniels hikes European prices after retaliatory tariffs cbsnews.com/news/jack-dani…
Head of global economics research,
Bank of America Merrill Lynch:

"A major trade war would lead to a significant reduction in growth .. A decline in confidence and supply chain disruptions could amplify the trade shock, leading to an outright recession”
He intends to destroy an American legend out of sheer spite.

Trump threatens Harley-Davidson with severe taxes and predicts (hopes for) a public revolt that he said would put the 115-year-old firm out of business washingtonpost.com/news/business/…
China trade dispute casts doubt over exports of LNG from US, industry executives warn of threat to new projects worth tens of billions of dollars on.ft.com/2tu8wwM
Canada makes bid for LNG export position amid US-China trade rift platts.com/latest-news/na…
.@PIIE: A 25% tariff on imported cars would cause a loss of 195,000 jobs in the US auto industry over 3 years.

If other countries retaliate, losses could reach 624,000.

"This would widen the trade war tenfold’: US automakers say no to Trump’s car tariffs
Automakers warn U.S. tariffs will cost hundreds of thousands of auto jobs and increase prices to American consumers $45 billion annually, or $5,800 per car
The flood of requests from U.S. manufacturers for exemptions from the Trump’s tariffs on steel & aluminum imports is exposing competitive information to rivals, customers & US metal producers.

US manufacturers, steel makers battle over tariff relief reuters.com/article/us-tra…
"The consequences of a US withdrawal are so profound that the trade community hasn’t seriously entertained the possibility that Trump would try to withdraw"

Trump has repeatedly told his advisors he wants to pull out of the World Trade Organization axios.com/trump-threat-w…
General Motors warns that Trump's threatened #tariffs on imported cars would drive individual vehicle prices up thousands of dollars and cost American jobs
"If Trump's goal is to try to soften up his [#NAFTA] negotiating partner by issuing threats, it's having the opposite effect, because people are more resolved to stand up against this kind of bullying"

Canadians, livid about Trump, are boycotting US goods npr.org/2018/06/28/623…
Mercosur offers to cut import tariff on EU cars by 50% as the two sides try to advance talks to close a free trade agreement reuters.com/article/mercos…
"We will not escalate, and we will not back down": Canada FM @cafreeland

Canada announces $12.6 billion in retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products, will provide $1.5 billion in aid to Canadian workers and companies harmed by Trump's steel & aluminum tariffs latimes.com/world/la-fg-ca…
March 2, 2018, Peter Navarro, White House National Trade Council Director: I don't believe any country will retaliate to Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs (h/t @MaggieJordanACN)
General Motors comments submitted to Commerce Dept: another wave of tariffs could lead to “less investment, fewer jobs and lower wages” for its employees.

The hardest hit cars are likely to be the ones bought by consumers who can least afford an increase
Polaris, manufacturer of Indian motorcycles, may join Harley-Davidson in overseas production move because of European tariffs (h/t @scottlincicome) minnesota.cbslocal.com/2018/06/29/pol…
All you MAGA morons who have been infesting my mentions with attacks on Harley Davidson can now pivot to vilifying another American company rather than admit that Trump f*cked up.

Doesn't the cognitive dissonance ever get exhausting for y'all?
"The recent EU retaliatory tariffs have required us to expend time, energy and resources to evaluate mitigation plans"

Polaris' Indian motorcycles may follow Harley-Davidson out of U.S. to beat tariffs bizjournals.com/twincities/new…
New Hampshire: maple syrup
Kentucky: whiskey
Wisconsin: frozen pizza
Pennsylvania: toilet paper, chocolate, licorice, ketchup
Ohio: ketchup

Trudeau’s retaliatory tariffs aim to hit Republicans where it hurts @ddale8 thestar.com/news/world/201…
#TPP negotiators to meet next month to discuss expansion, Thailand and Indonesia ready to join

"Once TPP-11 is fully implemented, trade barriers such as tariffs will all but vanish .. the bloc will trail only US, China & EU in size" (^ @snlester) #CPTPP asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Inter…
.@EU_Commission submission to Commerce Department warns of $300 billion hit to US if Trump imposes tariffs on car imports
"EU-owned car companies account for more than 25% of US car production, with plants across the country, including South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi and Tennessee — all strongly Republican states — and the majority of this production was for export"
"BMW, which exports 70% of vehicles from its largest plant in South Carolina, also warned that it could cut investment and jobs if the tariffs are imposed"
The EU letter makes clear that this is not merely about trade, but respect for rules and agreements – pacta sunt servanda. Can the US be trusted?

"Tariffs would represent yet another disregard of international law and damage further the reputation of the US." (h/t @paulkrugman)
Bartiromo: "Would it be better to have our allies together to go against China, instead of pushing back on our allies, like the European Union?"

Trump: "The allies - excuse me. The European Union is possibly as bad as China, just smaller." (via @atrupar)
Tariff whiplash: after cutting tariffs on imported cars on July 1, China warns it will reverse that policy for US-made cars – including BMW and Mercedes – if Trump imposes tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese goods on July 6
World's biggest trading bloc – covering 1/3 of the world economy – a step closer after meeting of 16 Asian ministers from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which includes China, Japan and India but not the US #RCEP #TPP #CPTPP
“As protectionism concerns increase globally, it’s important that the Asian region flies the flag of free trade.”

Unlike #TPP, the #RCEP agreement doesn’t include higher standards for labor and environmental protection
IHS Markit survey of American factories: tariffs are driving up costs and contributing to the lengthiest delays for supplies reaching factory production lines since the poll began in 2007 theguardian.com/business/2018/…
Twitter gets wind of Trump abandoning WTO rules … and adopting the FART Act
“Let us be as one and achieve a free, fair and rules-based market in this region"

Asian nations form united front as Trump goes it alone on trade: China-backed #RCEP aims to conclude a free trade agreement by the end of the year
In meetings in Brussels, Berlin and Beijing, senior Chinese officials have proposed an anti-US alliance on trade, and offered to open more of the Chinese market to the EU in a gesture of goodwill uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa…
"The European Union, the world's largest trading bloc, has rejected the idea of allying with Beijing against Washington"

Our allies still maintaining their loyalty to the U.S., despite Trump's relentless attacks and sneering contempt.
The European Union has rejected the offer of a formal alliance with China against Trump's trade policies, ahead of a Sino-European summit in Beijing on July 16-17 #EU #tariffs #trade independent.ie/business/world…
In his latest attack on Harley-Davidson, Trump claimed he’s working with other motorcycle makers to offset the production it’s shifting overseas.

To do so, he'd have to lure one of Harley's foreign rivals to US, & none have announced any such negotiations bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
China to cancel 1.14 million tons of American soybean shipments once the extra (retaliatory) tariff on U.S. imports takes effect Friday bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
"There are no winners in a trade war, only casualties and unintended consequences. And that's where we feel we are. We're the victims in a fight that we didn't pick."

Caught in tariff war, US distillers fear losing out on global whiskey boom
A Chinese factory has been hired to produce flags for Trump's 2020 campaign amp.businessinsider.com/chinese-factor…
"Risks associated with trade policy have intensified ..[some US companies] indicated plans for capital spending had been scaled back or postponed as a result of uncertainty over trade policy"

Federal Reserve minutes highlight rising concern over tariffs
Trump’s trade war against China Is officially underway: at 12:01 am, Trump imposed tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese products, a significant escalation of a fight that could hurt companies and consumers in both the US and China nyti.ms/2KV7fWs
"Trump, who has boasted that winning a trade war will be easy, said Thursday that he's prepared to impose tariffs on up to $550 billion in Chinese imports — a figure that exceeds the $506 billion in goods that China actually shipped to the US last year" 🤦
Economists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch (among others): A full-fledged trade war with China risks tipping the U.S. economy into recession
China was set to immediately retaliate against Trump's 25% tariff on $34 billion worth of Chinese imports with tariffs on an equal amount of U.S. products, including soybeans, lobsters, sport-utility vehicles and whiskey
Moody's Analytics: The fallout from Trump’s tariffs and China’s retaliation will have the greatest impact on the U.S. counties that voted Trump into office #karma
Russia imposes tariffs on some US construction, oil & gas, metal processing & fiber optics equipment in retaliation against Trump's steel & aluminum tariffs.

Russia is also joining with EU, China, India, Canada & others to challenge Trump's tariffs at WTO
Apparently Russian officials weren't particularly impressed with the #KremlinCaucus's #IndependenceDay pitch.
"If Trump sticks to his guns, his trade war could usher in a worldwide depression. Even if he’s just showboating (remember North Korea, anyone?), much of the damage has already been done"
"It’s a whole lot easier not to wreck the car in the first place than it is to think about what a repair might look like"

As Trump's trade war begins, aides consider $30 billion bailout fund for farmers facing losses (h/t @TheRynheart) huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/30-billi…
"If Europe is weakened, it will only be bad news for China, not the other way around. This (16+1) platform needs to stay open. It needs to be transparent."

At summit with CEE leaders, China pledges commitment to free trade as clash with U.S. ramps up
"The deal will be the biggest free trade accord ever signed by the European Union. The agreement will unite around 600 million people, representing about 1/3 of global trade."

EU governments approve free trade deal with Japan #JEEPA p.dw.com/p/30yEs?tw
The EU and Japan announced a broad agreement that would lower barriers on virtually all the goods traded between them, in a pointed challenge to Trump on the eve of a #G20 summit.

Overview of #JEEPA and its huge economic and political significance
Trump Tariff Tracker: how severe is the pain?

$85 billion worth of US imports + retaliation = $165 billion total hit so far in the global trade war, per @ChadBown of @PIIE washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2…
China is aiming to boost domestic production of soybeans by calling on its vast army of farmers to expand soybean acreage and offering greater subsidies to growers to make up for the loss of imports from the US nbcnews.com/news/china/chi…
.@paulkrugman: Trump’s tariffs are badly designed even from a pro-mercantilist perspective, inflicting maximal damage to US economy for minimal gain.

In contrast, foreign retaliation is far more sophisticated, with a clear economic and political objective
"Smart trade warriors would target final goods, to avoid raising costs for downstream producers of domestic goods.

But almost none of Trump's tariffs are on consumer goods. 95% are on intermediate goods or capital goods like machinery that are also used in domestic production"
"China’s retaliation looks very different, [imposing] tariffs mostly on final goods. And it’s also driven by a clear political strategy of hurting Trump voters; the Chinese, unlike the Trumpies, know what they’re trying to accomplish" (^ @ChadBown for pie charts)
Why Trump's trade war is futile:

The factory cost of an iPhone 7 is $237.45, all of which is considered an import from China on its trade balance with US.

But just $8.46 of that cost actually goes to China. US parts make up the largest share of the total
Trump’s delusions are about to blow up in his own voters’ faces:

Nearly 2/3 of the jobs in industries targeted by China’s tariffs — a total of more than 1 million jobs — are in more than 2,100 counties that voted for Trump @ThePlumLineGS washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-lin…
BMW unveils plan to boost production in China, in a move that will help the automaker lower its reliance on imports from a U.S. factory as trade tensions intensify bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
BMW exported 106,000 U.S.-built SUV's to China last year.

BMW moving some production to China and raising the price of South Carolina-made vehicles to offset the higher cost of exporting to China due to recently-enacted tariffs postandcourier.com/business/bmw-m…
BMW confirms all-electric iX3 SUV will be built in China and exported to other markets, signs massive contract with CATL, China’s biggest battery manufacturer electrek.co/2018/07/09/bmw…
Switzerland launches WTO action over U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs, becoming the 8th member to do so reuters.com/article/us-usa…
China has unveiled a plan to funnel money collected from tariffs to firms and workers affected by the escalating trade war.

Officials also encouraged businesses to reduce their reliance on American goods, urging them to find alternative suppliers washingtonpost.com/world/china-vo…
Tesla to build a plant in Shanghai, becoming the first foreign auto maker to build a factory and a network of suppliers in China without the support of a local joint venture partner.

The factory is expected to produce 500,000 vehicles a year wsj.com/articles/tesla…
Another escalation of an already-disastrous #trade war: Trump is preparing to release a list of an additional $200 billion in Chinese products to be hit with #tariffs bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Trump imposing new taxes on American producers and consumers.

U.S. preparing additional #tariffs on up to $200 billion of Chinese imports, following last week's initial round of $34 billion wsj.com/articles/u-s-p…
China can't match the new tariffs dollar for dollar as in previous rounds, so it is considering other measures:
• holding up licenses for US firms
• delaying approval of M&A involving US companies
• increased inspections of American products at borders wsj.com/articles/shock…
When China cancels its $500 million investment in Trump's Indonesia project, rescinds Ivanka's trademarks and conducts snap inspections on her $1/hour sweatshops, then we'll know Beijing is getting serious.
Senate takes symbolic step to assert power on trade, overwhelmingly (88-11) approves non-binding measure to give Congress more authority in imposing national-security tariffs
Trade war already starting to bite in red states.

"The vote marked the 1st time the GOP-controlled Senate went on the record over tariffs that have hit aluminum and steel makers in Canada, Mexico & EU and potentially threaten overseas automakers as well"
China’s trade surplus with the U.S. surged to a record monthly high of $29 billion in June, with exports swelling just as #trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies escalated (h/t @scottlincicome) wsj.com/articles/china…
In snub to Trump-style protectionism, Japan and the European Union have signed a free trade agreement that will cover 1/3 of the global economy #JEEPA dpa-international.com/topic/urn:news…
.@JunckerEU: "We are leading by example, showing that trade is about more than tariffs and barriers. It is about values, principles and finding win-win solutions for all those concerned"

EU and Japan sign one of the world's biggest trade deals #JEEPA bbc.com/news/business-…
Japan and EU sign trade deal eliminating most bilateral tariffs

Also noteworthy: #JEFTA does not include #ISDS (per MEP @ph_lamberts) wsj.com/articles/japan…
"The same day a stunned world watched Trump praise Russia as a competitor after dismissing Europe as a “foe," the EU & China held a meeting of their own.

The next day, the Europeans traveled to Japan and signed the biggest free-trade agreement in history"
“We should be thriving. We were doing pretty good. But now, it’s like he flipped the light switch off, and it’s all because of tariffs.”

‘I want him to fix it’: Trump voters sorry now that tariffs are killing their Missouri nail factory rawstory.com/?p=1316629
“Raising tariffs on auto and auto parts would be a massive tax on consumers"

Trump threatens 25% tariffs on imported cars despite widespread opposition; Senators Alexander (R) & Jones (D) to introduce legislation to block the tariffs wsj.com/articles/trump…
“This is a show trial .. where they predetermined the verdict and the schedule on which the verdict would be read": @AdamPosen on the Commerce Department's 'national security' hearings to justify auto tariffs
EU prepares new trade retaliation list for possible car tariffs ahead of July 25 meeting between European Commission President @JunckerEU and Trump in DC reuters.com/article/us-usa…
"Trade restrictions aimed at preventing US jobs from going to Mexico & elsewhere have instead hampered a Mexican company’s multimillion-dollar effort to create jobs in the US — an unintended consequence of Trump’s trade war ..

Layoffs have already begun"
Trump's auto tariffs could complicate Peugeot parent PSA’s long-planned return to the U.S. market: “I could launch in Canada,” says PSA’s North American CEO thedetroitbureau.com/2018/07/trump-…
How much more will your next car cost if Trump imposes tariffs on foreign cars and car parts?

Per @PIIE analysis:
Toyota RAV4: + $3,418
Nissan Sentra: + $3,075
Chevy Equinox: + $3,003
Ford Escape: + $2,274
Honda Civic: + $1,695
(h/t @keithboykin)
BMW became the #1 exporter of American-made cars, transforming Spartanburg, South Carolina. Now it is weighing the impact of an escalation of the trade fight
In June, BMW warned Commerce Dept it might cut investment and production in Spartanburg if selling abroad became too costly.

Already this year, BMW stopped exporting the X3 crossover from Spartanburg to China and began making more in China & South Africa
EU Commission President Juncker will bring 2 proposals to July 25 meeting with Trump:
1) reduction of tariffs on cars and car parts among all major auto-exporting countries (plurilateral deal)
2) limited free-trade agreement bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
"Trump has triggered a war of brinksmanship with a diplomatically mature country that will not back down, & has the tools to inflict serious pain on the US economy, & on Trump politically": @stevelevine

Trump "ready" to slap tariffs on all Chinese imports axios.com/trump-china-tr…
Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch is ratcheting up pressure on Trump to reconsider his tariffs, warning in a letter that GOP senators may be ready to risk a legislative confrontation with him unless he reverses course on trade wsj.com/articles/sen-o…
"Amid the intensifying friction between the US and China on trade, China wants to keep the US in check by strengthening economic cooperation with Japan"

Japan, China set to work out joint development projects related to the "One Belt One Road" Initiative asahi.com/ajw/articles/A…
Remember when the United States envisioned the TPP as a means of containing China's rise?

Good times.
Xi Jinping’s superpower plans: as the U.S. retreats, China is talking more boldly about how it wants to change the global order and assert its own values and interests wsj.com/articles/mr-xi…
In Trump’s cultivation of an “America First” agenda, he may be planting the seeds for a “China First” world – but at a price: crushing of democracy in Hong Kong, colonization of South China Sea, isolation of Taiwan, control of foreign ports, & export of its authoritarian model
The German auto industry employs more than 118,000 people in the United States, and 60% of what they produced is exported to other countries from the U.S. A trade war hurts us, too.

German industry groups warn US on tariffs ahead of July 25 EU-US meeting reuters.com/article/us-usa…
France's Finance Minister, speaking at #G20: the EU will not negotiate a free trade agreement with the US unless Trump first withdraws tariffs on steel and aluminum reuters.com/article/us-g20…
Economic illiteracy aside, this should deeply trouble anyone familiar with what Trump did with "the bank's money" before they stopped lending to him.
"We’re already hearing complaints now from companies, so by the time we get to the midterms, you’re going to be hearing governors, mayors, Congress complaining about jobs, about cost increases, about problems": Carlos Gutierrez, Commerce Sec under Bush 43 politico.com/story/2018/07/…
"The aggressive pursuit of foreign trade that made Mike Pence's hometown a recession-busting economic miracle has made it decidedly vulnerable, with businesses already canceling projects and mulling the depth of job losses" (h/t @DerekCressman) washingtonpost.com/politics/depen…
Trump's trade war hits heavy equipment manufacturer Cummins in 2 ways, affecting both its incoming parts, which will be subject to tariffs (esp. steel & aluminum), and its own products, on which retaliatory penalties will be assessed by targeted countries
The Columbus, Indiana area is the most export-reliant region in the country, with just over 50% of its GDP linked to sales abroad
"Some hog farmers and pork processors are beginning to scale back. Maschhoffs has put on hold $30 million in investments and is instead considering expansion into Eastern Europe or South America"

2.5 billion pounds of meat piles up in US as exports slow
Another @Larry_Kudlow prediction goes down in flames.

@EU_Commission: Juncker will not bring trade offer to Trump talks reuters.com/article/us-usa…
Canada launches NAFTA challenge of 'illegal' U.S. tariff of 30% on solar panels (EU, China, South Korea and Taiwan have already filed WTO complaints against the solar tariffs) cbc.ca/news/politics/…
Trump's tariff war could devastate Detroit: if the full-size pickup segment were to open up with the ending of the 'chicken tax,' it could wipe out earnings at Ford, GM, and Fiat Chrysler (h/t @scottlincicome) nbcnews.com/business/autos…
The US tariff is 2.5% on most vehicles, but 25% on pickups. The “chicken tax" (imposed in retaliation for European poultry tariffs, but now applies to all countries) allows the Big 3 to retain control of a segment that provides virtually all their profits
"Less affluent buyers are likely to suffer more from an auto tariff because they spend a larger share of income on a new car purchase (12% for bottom 20%
v. 3% for top 20%).

As a result, poor households will see more of their tax cut wiped out by tariffs"
“Tariffs are the greatest!” Trump tweets as the White House announces $12 billion bailout for farmers hurt by Trump's escalating trade war wsj.com/articles/trump…
Whirlpool CEO, on tariffs on washing machines: "This is, without any doubt, a positive catalyst for Whirlpool"

[March: steel & aluminum tariffs]

Today: "Global steel cost has risen substantially and, particularly in US, has reached unexplainable levels"
"The company's reversal demonstrates the unintended consequences tariffs have sowed on manufacturers and their carefully-planned supply chains."
Perfect illustration of the dysfunction wrought by protectionism: as adversely-affected (&/or politically-valuable) industries are bailed out, every other sector queues up for its own handout.

Conservatives used to warn about this culture of dependency.
"General Motors buys the vast majority of its steel from domestic producers. But US steel prices have increased in reaction to the 25% tariff Trump announced in March"

Tariff fallout hits Q2 earnings & profit outlook for GM, the nation's largest automaker wsj.com/articles/gm-po…
Ford next on the firing line after tariffs wreak havoc on GM and Fiat: steel & aluminum tariffs will cost Ford $600 million in 2018 (+ sales fell 22% in China in Q2 due to retaliatory tariffs)
EU was going to buy more US soybeans anyway, b/c prices for Brazilian soy had gone up due to higher Chinese demand (after they stopped buying ours). Diversionary trade.

June 27: Trade spat to turn US into top EU soybean supplier bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Trade spat with Mexico (the largest importer of American wheat) speeds US decline as global wheat supplier: Mexico is increasingly turning to cheaper supplies from Russia, which surpassed the US as the top exporter in 2016 reuters.com/article/us-usa…
"While the two sides said the deal was contingent on negotiating in good faith, there was no schedule set to complete the talks"

US, EU agree to resolve trade differences after meeting between Trump and Juncker meet wsj.com/articles/us-eu…
By blocking Qualcomm's $44 billion acquisition of NXP Semiconductors, China made 2 points: It showed it has weapons beyond tariffs to use in its trade fight with US, and it checked the advance of a powerful rival in a longer-range battle for tech supremacy wsj.com/articles/scutt…
Trade deficit grows 5.5% in June as one-time tariff boost to exports fades (in May, companies raced to ship agricultural products to foreign customers before retaliatory tariffs went into effect) marketwatch.com/story/trade-ga…
EU-US trade truce falters on Day 1 over farming: Trump and Juncker only discussed soybeans, but Commerce Sec Ross and US Trade Rep Lighthizer claim the agreement applies to all agricultural products politico.eu/article/eu-us-…
Trump misleads Iowa audience on agriculture deal: only "non-auto industrial goods" are part of the negotiation towards zero tariffs, non-tariff barriers & subsidies.

At EU's insistence, farm products are excluded, aside from agreeing to buy more soybeans axios.com/trumps-mislead…
French Finance Minister:

"Agriculture must remain outside the field of these discussions. Non-tariff agricultural barriers are not negotiable. We have stringent health, food and environmental norms as well as rules of production" bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
"To back up his points, Juncker flipped through over a dozen colorful cue cards with simplified explainers. Each card had at most 3 figures about a specific topic, such as trade in cars.

“We knew this wasn’t an academic seminar. It had to be very simple."
Until recently, China was the 2nd-largest importer of US almonds after the EU.

Now China has not only imposed a 50% tariff on almonds, but closed a loophole that for years allowed large volumes to be imported via Vietnam without incurring import taxes wsj.com/articles/chine…
The moves reflect China’s efforts to make its tariffs on US agricultural products as effective as possible. Almonds are likely to be among the hardest hit, because the US is the world’s largest producer and exporter of almonds, with 80% of the global supply coming from California
“The general consensus that my producers have is that it’s a Band-Aid. They’d just prefer to have their markets back and not have to get government handouts. They spent years developing those overseas markets and it seems like they collapsed in 30 days" theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
An op-ed by a local farmer called the $12 billion aid package "hush money."
“Once China finds markets in South America, they won’t come back & buy all the soybeans they bought before, all the corn, the pork, b/c they have other markets in place. They’re already investing in infrastructure in Brazil, so they’re in for the long run"
"Growers are expected to take an $11 billion hit due to retaliatory Chinese tariffs"

Agriculture Secretary says farmers could get cash aid by late September but will not be made whole; also advises farmers to shift to corn from soybeans next year #G20 reuters.com/article/us-g20…
In 2017, the entire EU imported 14.5 million metric tons of soybeans, compared to 95 million metric tons for China.

And the EU was already getting 1/3 of its soybean imports from the US long before Trump launched his trade war motherjones.com/food/2018/07/t…
"When Trump aides tried to broaden the talks from industrial products to agriculture, EU officials threatened to demand the U.S. drop its “Buy American” provisions for government procurement, a non-starter for the Trump admin" (h/t @prchovanec)
Beer joins RVs, motorcycles, a/c & heating equipment and soda as consumer goods becoming more expensive due to tariffs.

"Sam Adams brewer Boston Beer Co to raise prices: “At some point, increased commodity costs have to be passed through to some extent” wsj.com/articles/soda-…
"The total price tag could hit $39 billion if Trump compensated the losses across all industries. It would take $7.6 billion to help car and automobile parts manufacturers alone"

Layoffs from Trump tariffs are piling up. So are calls for more bailouts washingtonpost.com/business/2018/…
"Polls show America’s reputation has deteriorated immensely since Trump withdrew from #TPP, with a growing number of Asian nations questioning the US' dependability"

US announces Asian investment program to compete with China’s ‘Belt and Road Initiative"
Pompeo Says The US Will Spend $113 Million To Promote Business In Asia.

China Plans To Spend $1 Trillion. buzzfeed.com/emilytamkin/po…
Caterpillar says tariffs will cost the company up to $200 million in second half of 2018, so it's raising prices cnbc.com/amp/2018/07/30…
Two steel giants with deep ties to Trump regime officials have objected to 1,600 requests by American companies to be exempted from Trump's tariffs.

To date, their efforts have never failed.
"The ability of a single industry to exert so much influence over the exclusions process is striking even in Trump’s business-friendly White House*, given the high stakes for thousands of American companies that depend on foreign metals"

140,000 Americans are employed in steel-producing jobs.

6.5 million Americans are employed in steel-consuming industries (cars, aircraft etc).

8 jobs will be lost for every steel job saved – even *before* retaliation
"Singapore's FM urged the 10 #ASEAN countries to quickly conclude talks for a Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade agreement that includes China and Japan, but not the US"

Asian nations push back at US on trade policies, Iran sanctions #CPTPP #TPP wsj.com/articles/asian…
China's foreign minister also mocked the US announcement of $113 million in a regional economic development initiative.

“I expected the U.S. to offer a figure in billions. My first reaction was that I must have heard it wrong”
Trump has a new plan for how to pay down the national debt: Taxing American consumers and businesses when they buy certain goods from countries subject to his tariffs.

Math is not on his side.
• 2018 federal budget deficit (CBO): $800 billion

• US will collect $40bil in tariffs in 2018, inc $35bil already taken in over past 2 years

• Additional amount as a result of Trump tariffs: $5 billion (1/80th of what he needs to begin retiring debt)
35.4% of Trump counties have shed jobs in the past year, vs. just 19.2% of Clinton counties.

Job growth is still concentrated in the same places as it was toward the end of Obama's presidency, when ~58.7% of average annual job gains were in Dem counties cnbc.com/amp/2018/08/06…
#pt The job growth/loss trend under Trump mirrors patterns of economic growth: counties that voted for Clinton produced 64% of US GDP.
"The lack of job growth in Trump areas hasn't eroded his support among Republicans, [for whom] cultural issues such as gun rights, immigration & loyalty to Trump have become dominant priorities"

Wait, you mean it wasn't about economic anxiety after all?😱
South Korea is threatening to block a revised free-trade agreement with the US (which Trump called a "great deal") unless its cars win an exemption from proposed tariffs, jeopardizing the only free-trade deal the Trump regime has successfully renegotiated wsj.com/articles/trump…
– 8% of farmers support Trump's claim that "trade wars are good and easy to win"
– 40% believe 'Trump's actions on trade have done permanent damage to agriculture'
– 14% say tariffs will be good for their farm’s profits

Trade dents farm support for Trump farmfutures.com/farm-policy/tr…
Only 78% of the farmers who voted for Trump in 2016 said they would still vote for him today.

None of the growers surveyed who voted for Clinton would switch sides today.
"The company was one of the largest remaining employers in Fairfield County after the local Walmart, which used to be the largest grocery store in the county, closed its doors 2 years ago"

South Carolina manufacturer closing its plant due to Trump tariffs thehill.com/policy/finance…
"Trump’s tariffs have already made an impact in manufacturing-heavy South Carolina.

Volvo said it may have to break its promise to hire 4000 employees for a new plant. And BMW warned tariffs could jeopardize 45,000 SC jobs linked to its Spartanburg plant"
China to match US tariffs dollar-for-dollar on an additional $16 billion worth of imports, starting August 23.

Targets will include coal, medical instruments and cars bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Giant shipload of soybeans worth over $20 million has been circling aimlessly in the Pacific Ocean for a month (at a cost of $400,000 and counting) after failing to reach China in time to beat the tariff deadline (h/t @scottlincicome) theguardian.com/business/2018/…
This is a pretty good metaphor for Trump's trade policy.
Consumer products giant Newell Brands puts a price tag on new tariffs: $100 million in annual sales.

The maker of Crock-Pots, Sharpie pens, Rubbermaid housewares and Elmer's Glue is raising prices to compensate for the higher costs (h/t @scottlincicome)
Juncker: EU wants U.S. LNG "if priced competitively," calls on US to eliminate export restrictions and regulatory barriers for LNG upi.com/6806149t
U.S. car makers left in the dust as China’s tariff cut boosts Europe and Japan: Chinese auto imports set a record of $7.4 billion in July, but American manufacturers were hit by a retaliatory tariff increase wsj.com/articles/u-s-c…
“The tariffs have played a major role raising prices by almost 80% (partly due to associated shortages), which cut deeply into our margins"

PC case maker CaseLabs says it has been 'forced into bankruptcy and liquidation' by Trump's tariffs independent.co.uk/news/world/ame…
"The tariffs would be such a burden that it could force him to shut down some of his manufacturing plants, lay off hundreds of workers and move operations overseas"

A looming trade lesson: tariffs threaten the jobs that Standard Textile brought back to US wsj.com/articles/a-loo…
Compounding the suffering of California wildfire victims:

The Trump regime's tariffs have raised the cost of imported lumber, drywall, nails and other key construction materials, increasing the price of rebuilding a typical home in CA by up to $20,000 nbcnews.com/news/us-news/t…
'#BikersForTrump' founder Chris Cox says he sells Trump shirts made in Haiti because American-made products are too expensive.

And he's promoting a boycott against Harley-Davidson, whose motorcycles sold in the US are ... made in America. thehill.com/blogs/blog-bri…
Wisconsin is the #2 dairy supplier in the US. In an industry where margins can be razor thin, farmers have come to rely on sales to Mexico, one of the biggest importers of American dairy.

Now that market is jeopardy, with repercussions for the Senate race npr.org/2018/08/12/637…
Republicans are pouring millions of dollars into the race to defeat Tammy Baldwin, one of 10 Senate Democrats running for re-election in states that Trump won in 2016.

Trump's tariffs may determine the outcome
Complete malarkey.
• Harley-Davidsons sold domestically are made in USA
• Polaris is moving production of Indian motorcycles overseas
• Reason: higher manufacturing costs from steel & aluminum tariffs + retaliatory tariffs
• Not a single foreign bike maker is relocating to US
A closer look at the #BikersForTrump, and the messages of hatred and threatened violence they proudly display.

Trump has his very own Night Wolves to deploy against his enemies.
Good eye from @jules_su – one of the “#BikersforTrump” is sporting actual Nazi tattoos (Jimmy Willingham, a member of the alt-reich Patriot Prayer in Portland, Oregon, which is directly associated with the Proud Boys).

Nice company Trump is keeping.
"Unless Ford can find alternative markets for exports like the Mustang, the impact could be the loss of American jobs."

Auto industry caught in the crosshairs of the US-China trade war
"Companies are assessing whether they can move production to avoid tariffs. Mexico is on most suppliers' list, as it could source metal from anywhere & ship to more countries, as it has ~twice as many countries covered in free trade agreements than the US" crainsdetroit.com/article/201808…
The expenditure of time and resources that could be used for innovation, investment and expansion to instead evade tariffs is a perfect illustration of @scottlincicome’s maxim: #TNOIIECBAFTATPPAAFPDATW
"Trade policy has already changed since early July & may continue to evolve, so effects of new tariffs may become more substantial & have a larger effect on the economy than CBO accounted for in current projections"

CBO revises economic forecast downward rollcall.com/news/politics/…
The trade thread got broken, so I'm dropping the orphaned tweets here to keep it intact.
Across Michigan, farming and construction are feeling the squeeze of retaliatory tariffs: the recent trade war has forced many to adjust operations to minimize the impact on the bottom line (h/t @scottlincicome) hollandsentinel.com/news/20180819/…
"Everyone knows he doesn't know a lot of things, but occasionally it's important to remember that he also doesn't know anything."

John Oliver creates economic tutorial to teach Donald Trump about tariffs (video) #LastWeekTonight
TL;DR version of @iamjohnoliver's #LastWeekTonight trade bit (though you really should watch the whole segment)
Trump’s budget director, @MickMulvaneyOMB is trying to use his personal influence to secure an exemption for Element Electronics, a South Carolina company in his old district that is about to shut down because of tariffs
Fed signals rate increase next month, also expresses deep concerns over the effect of the trade war on economic growth wsj.com/articles/fed-s…
New US tariffs kick in on $16 billion of Chinese goods (semiconductors, chemicals, plastics, motorbikes and electric scooters).

China immediately retaliated with new tariffs on $16 billion of US imports (fuel, steel products, autos and medical equipment)
China files WTO complaint as US escalates trade war news.sky.com/story/us-and-c…
US-China trade talks end with little apparent progress, while separate discussions between the US and Mexico to renegotiate NAFTA also failed to produce a deal ft.com/content/fa72e3…
"I don’t think this White House has put together a set of coherent demands that the Chinese could conceivably meet": @philipilevy, Chicago Council on Global Affairs
"One by one, small business owners paraded before a panel of US administration officials this week to plead for mercy in the escalating trade war with China .. All were bracing for a big hit to their business if the new tariffs end up being implemented."
"Expectations for future manufacturing activity trended lower ... Respondents expressed concerns about finding trucks to ship goods, competition for skilled labor and **uncertainty related to tariffs**"
Malaysia PM seeks to leverage the 'stupid' US-China trade war, also indicates the country will proceed with #CPTPP, citing the reduced risk of countries being sued by corporations (#ISDS) as a result of the US' withdrawal
“Japanese carmakers are a major contributor to the American economy. If the Japanese auto industry is weakened, it will not be able to invest in the US.”

Japanese minister of economy, trade and industry: tariffs show Trump does not understand free trade japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/08/2…
The fact that BMW's largest plant in the world is in Spartanburg, South Carolina is mentioned quite a bit, but often overlooked is that Toyota's largest plant is in Georgetown, Kentucky.

The domestic/foreign distinction is more of a political construct than an economic one.
Rising prices for steel (↑19% yoy) and aluminum (↑18%) are driving up the value of shipments and orders (both ↑18%) of those metals from US plants, but are having little impact on the actual quantity of production or employment
While tariffs are failing to boost US steel and aluminum output or jobs, that doesn't mean they aren't having any effect.

"Higher metals prices could squeeze American companies that use steel and aluminum as inputs."
"Proposed tariffs on many of the items we sell will inadvertently place a tax on the "Made in America" products you make"

Jo-Ann Fabric creates online petition, urges customers to lobby Congress & White House against tariffs on fabrics, fleece and yarn bit.ly/2w9bk3D
30% of manufacturers and 28% of retail and wholesale trade firms are reconsidering business investment due to "recently announced tariff hikes or concerns about retaliation": survey (conducted before latest round of US-China tariffs) @pdacosta
U.S. and Mexico agree to preliminary NAFTA deal, awaits Canada's approval:
• requires 75% of auto content to be made in the US and Mexico (up from 62.5%)
• 40–45% of auto content must be made by workers earning at least $16/hour nyti.ms/2oe6sGn
For his NAFTA announcement, Trump patched through Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto by speakerphone, who openly contradicts Trump's claims about their agreement. @ddale8
President of Mexico: "I talked to the President* @realDonaldTrump. Mexico and the United States have reached a commercial understanding. We want Canada's re-incorporation into talks to achieve a successful trilateral negotiation of NAFTA this week."
Trump's NAFTA announcement was (predictably) Singapore summit-level bullshittery.
Even Senate Finance Committee Chair Orrin Hatch won't play along: US-Mexico announcement is “an important step toward modernizing NAFTA," a final agreement should include Canada, and he looks forward to reviewing details "so that a revamped NAFTA can pass Congress and become law"
U.S. and Mexico agree to weaken rights to dispute trade practices under NAFTA: businesses and governments would face new limitations to challenge penalties imposed for dumping or subsidies wsj.com/articles/u-s-m…
Culture of dependency.

Trump regime to give $4.7 billion in welfare payments to farmers to offset losses from his trade war, of which ~3/4 ($3.6 billion) will go to soybean growers wsj.com/articles/u-s-t…
USDA to buy $1.2 billion in pork, apples and dairy and other goods from farmers hurt by retaliatory tariffs, in addition to almost $5 billion in direct payments abcn.ws/2wkvfNd
Thread @Austan_Goolsbee documenting the economic benefits of TPP (of which Canada and Mexico are both members) that were foregone in the US-Mexico 'understanding' announced yesterday.
After nearly a decade of growth, global car sales hit a speed bump as auto makers grapple with higher steel and aluminum prices and trade tensions wsj.com/articles/globa…
U.S. merchandise trade deficit grows for second month in a row, surging 6.3% to $72.2 billion in July as exports dropped and imports continue to rise wsj.com/articles/u-s-t…
A previously unreported US-Mexico side agreement would allow the US to impose 25% "national security" tariffs on Mexican car and SUV imports over 2.4 million vehicles/year, and on auto parts imports above a value of $90 billion/year reuters.com/article/us-tra…
Trump regime blocks the reappointment of a WTO appellate member, thus reducing the number of sitting judges to 3, the minimum needed for the appeals body to function bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Since August 2017, the U.S. has blocked all new nominees to the WTO appellate body, which has the final say in upholding, modifying or reversing WTO rulings
"Politically managed trade"

WSJ editorial board on US-MEX deal: half a NAFTA that contains some improvements but notably worse in many ways, with uncertain prospects for passing Congress wsj.com/articles/half-…
"Retaliatory tariffs on American whiskey have created additional uncertainty around the company’s near-term outlook"

Jack Daniel's maker cuts profit forecast on trade war impact bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
US International Trade Commission blocks proposed newsprint tariffs, finds Canadian paper imports do not ‘injure U.S. industry' wsj.com/articles/inter…
More taxes on American consumers.

Trump wants to impose tariffs on another $200 billion of imports from China as soon as a public-comment period ends next week bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Top trade official in Mexico’s new government (taking office December 1) says he wants Canada in any future #NAFTA deal – and Mexico did not sell Canada out theglobeandmail.com/world/article-…
AMLO's chief trade negotiator also called Trump's comments expressing an unwillingness to compromise with Canada (as reported below) "troublesome"
Important point. (NB: US ran a $418 million trade *surplus* with Canada in dairy products in 2017)

Also: US restricts dairy imports through quotas, tariffs and licensing requirements, + USDA sets minimum prices, below which farmers can receive gov't aid
AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka: any new #NAFTA deal must include Canada (h/t @crampell) foxnews.com/politics/2018/…
Trump's bellicose rhetoric against Canada sparks calls for a trade and tourism boycott:

• 72% of Canadians say they would stop buying US-made goods in the event of a trade war
• 73% would stop visiting the US nbcnews.com/business/econo…
Improving India's ties with US was Narendra Modi’s signature foreign policy endeavor when he came to power in 2014.

But with New Delhi suddenly uncertain about Washington, Modi has in recent weeks sought to mend ties with Moscow, & with Beijing as a hedge nytimes.com/2018/09/02/wor…
“The White House approach to every country now is that we want you to cave on these random issues we have chosen, which are prioritized by nothing more than presidential whim. And you have to visibly lose on them. There are no win-wins.”
"A summit meeting between Trump and Modi went poorly .. Tiptoeing around Trump’s indiscretions is one in a suddenly long list of challenges [for Pompeo]"

And the recurring problem of a gutted diplomatic corps: "Key positions at the State Dept that deal with India remain vacant"
Almost 20% of jobs in Utah depend on international trade.

‘A cloud descending’: Utah business leaders warn of economic toll from U.S. trade wars with Canada, China and beyond (h/t @AlexNowrasteh) sltrib.com/news/2018/09/0…
"A top official with Utah’s largest homebuilder said lapsed rules on U.S.-Canadian lumber trade have boosted costs by nearly 60% since the start of 2017, while higher prices for lumber, steel and aluminum had already hiked home prices by $5,000 to $9,000"
US trade war and a thaw between China and Japan are raising prospects for the world’s biggest regional free-trade deal, after trade negotiators from 16 likely signatories of the China-backed #RCEP voiced high hopes of reaching a broad agreement in November sc.mp/2C5wV2q
South Korea discloses revised FTA with US:
•Extends 25% tariff on imports of Korean pickups to 2041
•Doubles # of US car imports that do not have to comply with domestic industry regulations to 50,000
#ISDS amended to protect public interest regulation
Seoul hopes to avoid Trump's 25% auto tariffs after #KORUS concessions:
– US will retain its 25% tariffs on South Korean pickup trucks until 2041
– Doubling of South Korea's import cap on US vehicles to 50,000/year per manufacturer world.kbs.co.kr/service/news_v…
He didn't watch the John Oliver tutorial, did he?

China. Doesn't. Pay. The. Tariffs.

American. Companies. Do. #ChristmasTax
More taxes on American consumers.

Trump will impose 10% tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods, rising to 25% at the end of the year cnbc.com/id/105454185
USTR official: "We have a little bit of a challenge right now because the Europeans are out cutting deals, Canada, Australia are out cutting deals -- the South Americans are talking about cutting deals all over the world. We’re behind the 8-ball” #winning
"We have a self-inflicted farm crisis on our way. Because somebody took away our markets.

In North Dakota we’re bringing in a record soybean crop -- and we have no place to put it, no place to sell it"
"Low prices and loss of profits are a huge blow for farmers, Sen. Donnelly added, but his real fear was the loss of long-term markets.

“China is just going somewhere else. And our farmers are the losers.”

And the winners? Brazilian farmers.
When Gary Cohn went to the Oval Office earlier this year with news of an excellent jobs report, Trump's keen grasp of economics & policy instantly came into play: "It's all because of my tariffs."

Cohn had to inform him the tariffs were not yet in effect. reason.com/archives/2018/…

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More from @Otpor17

Oct 6, 2018
Turkey has concluded that Jamal #Khashoggi, a prominent journalist from Saudi Arabia, was killed in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul earlier this week by a 15-member Saudi team sent “specifically for the murder" washingtonpost.com/world/middle_e…
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The killing, if confirmed, would mark a stunning escalation of Saudi Arabia’s effort to silence dissent, rounding up clerics, business execs & women’s rights advocates"
"The initial assessment of the Turkish police is that Mr. #Khashoggi has been killed at the consulate of Saudi Arabia in Istanbul. We believe that the murder was premeditated and the body was subsequently moved out of the consulate." reuters.com/article/us-sau…
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French police investigate disappearance of Interpol chief, place his wife under protection after receiving threats by phone & social media irishtimes.com/news/world/eur…
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Oct 5, 2018
93% of his records withheld from the American people

43 witnesses barred from corroborating Ford's account & proving he perjured himself

2,400+ law professors oppose his confirmation, citing his partisan, conspiratorial rant which betrayed a clear "lack of judicial temperament"
Any one of these would be disqualifying for a Supreme Court nominee.

Taken together, they are evidence that Kavanaugh is unfit to serve on ANY bench.
American Bar Association reopens evaluation of #Kavanaugh's "well-qualified" rating, based on his unhinged performance during a Senate hearing last week pbs.org/newshour/polit…
Read 14 tweets
Sep 29, 2018
“We cannot continue to make people keep suffering in pain over and over and over again for a debt that’s already been paid.” 

Excellent #longread on the people behind Florida's #RestoreTheVote campaign, inc a GOP lobbyist convicted in the Abramoff scandal
"A report by Washington Economics Group, whose clients include businesses like Nascar, projected that automatic restoration of voting rights would lead to $365 million/year in gains for Florida's economy, from lower prison costs and increased productivity"
Amazing statistic: the recidivism rate for people who had their voting rights automatically restored under Gov. Crist is 12.4%, vs a state average of 30%.

Also noteworthy: Charles and David Koch's network has declared support for Amendment 4.
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American Bar Association: delay #Kavanaugh confirmation vote until an FBI investigation is completed into the sexual assault allegations against him #KavanaughHearings cnn.com/2018/09/27/pol…
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Sep 26, 2018
You thought the world was laughing at him yesterday - they are in absolute stitches at today's epic embarrassment.

Trump addresses a Kurdish reporter as "Mr. Kurd" #25thAmendmentNow
Trump says he rejected a one-on-one meeting with Justin Trudeau at the #UNGA, threatens tariffs on Canada auto exports: "We're going to tax the cars coming in, and we'll put billions and billions into our treasury .. Canada has treated us very badly"
Aside from his economic illiteracy (Americans pay the tariff, not foreign exporters), his personal animus towards Trudeau and Canada – neighbors, close allies, brothers and sisters – is senseless and destructive.
Read 7 tweets

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