Chris Giles Profile picture
Jun 26, 2018 4 tweets 1 min read Read on X
Japanese ambassador says pointedly that Japan was first to express concerns about Brexit in Sept 2016 “because we work through summer”

Comes after acceptance U.K./EU negotiations will shut down over summer #SMMTSummit
He adds that U.K. government has studied its paper “recently”

“It’s taken a little time”
But says recently progress quite Japanese meeting with PM.

“This is the spirit which will move the process forward”
Japanese ambassador says the managers of U.K. subsidiaries “are not thinking of leaving”

But says no Japanese company has expanddd capacity since the Brexit vote.

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More from @ChrisGiles_

Sep 21, 2018
TM doing aggression
Yikes - it's "any form of customs border" in the Irish Sea now
Now - doubling down on Chequers. Doesn't seem to understand that her proposals do undermine the single market
Read 9 tweets
Jul 25, 2018
Quick comment on nowcasting UK incomes:

STOP IT

I'm talking to you:
@ONS
@resfoundation
@TheIFS

You can't agree on the numbers
The predictions are terrible
It confuses the truth

No data > rubbish data
@ONS @resfoundation @TheIFS It shouldn't be difficult to nowcast (properly described as Thencasting because we are talking 2017-18) incomes, right.

We have the latest survey and roughly know what happened to employment, earnings, taxes and benefits...

... but the results MUST be terribly sensitive
@ONS @resfoundation @TheIFS In 2 days we've had two of these, supposedly doing the same thing from @ONS and @resfoundation.

@ONS says disposable median income grew 1.2% in 2017-18
@resfoundation reckons it's not much more than zero.

That's a big difference
Read 5 tweets
Jul 17, 2018
RPI KLAXON

Quite an extraordinary @LordsEconCom hearing into the RPI

John Pullinger, national statistician says its "not an if, but a when" the RPI gets reformed
@LordsEconCom He faced pretty hostile questioning.

Rightly so. The @ONS position of refusing to improve the RPI while having a statutory duty to do so was indefensible.

Lord Turnbull called it "highly embarrassing and very unfortunate"
@LordsEconCom @ONS Other Lords asked "what has got to change to make you do something?"

or "Are you just not going to bother?"

All appropriate questions. I've asked them too.
Read 8 tweets
Jun 29, 2018
The good, bad (mostly) and ugly of the Q1 national economic accounts

When the economy grows only 0.2%, there will not be much good, but

GOOD
This was revised higher from 0.1%, due to a new methodology for construction. Essentially, this is taking usual slow revisions early
BAD

Business investment. Total investment has been unaffected by Brexit, but business investment growth effectively stopped since the Conservative victory in 2015 and uncertainty descended.

Compare the two here
BAD

UK still an outlier on the global stage. It is the only G7 country to see growth slow in 2017
Read 4 tweets
Jun 28, 2018
A primer on levels, changes and changes in changes of UK productivity

i.e what people get wrong all the time

LEVELS
UK workers produce less in an hour than French or Germans

H/T @bankofengland Andy Haldane whose speech provides most of the charts)
bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/fi…
@bankofengland CHANGES

Productivity levels have been growing over time

(The upward slope in the levels lines in these two charts)
@bankofengland CHANGES IN CHANGES

The growth rate of UK productivity has slowed.

This is the productivity puzzle

Shown by flattening of the line in first chart and widening of the gap between UK and the others in the second
Read 10 tweets
Jun 20, 2018
John James, CEO of Star group, a customs agent says without an agreement there will be a “catastrophe” in the south east
Lorry flows have risen fourfold since 1993 and customs agents have declined. “We believe it will be impossible to get goods cleared because of a lack of agents”
Takes over a year to train an agent. If customs doc is completed away from a port it takes over 10m each. Got to fill in 84 fields on a form
Read 4 tweets

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