V newsworthy Brexit exchange in new C4 fly on wall US embassy documentary - occurs when a very worried head of the Federal Aviation Agency Michael Huerta arrives worried about plane tickets not being valid when UK EU air safety status “evaporates”
FAA’s Huerta points out to the US ambassador that schedules need to be set six months out “If they don’t know what future state is, its very hard for them to sell tickets... concern this is not high enough up the agenda at DEXEU” - Ambassador then talks about how to elevate it
but that’s not the thing. (Though we were on to this story with our #brexitforensics film at the same time)
when FAA’s Huerta gets a briefed by US embassy political/economic staff - opens up by asking:
“Does the public have an notion of what the conditions of exit actually are?”
US embassy analysts then variously discuss with visiting top Trump official
- how UK public hasn’t yet internalised: “the economy is going to tank I better sit on my cash”
- “Government not done a lot of for macro analysis almost deliberately” so as not to upset Brexit voters
Embassy economists then tell Huerta that
- UK growth slowing down “longer term slower slide” including “inflation from an outside shock - worst kind of inflation”
- People tired of austerity .. If Brexit ends up not obviously helping them could have political knock on effects..
Perhaps the US embassy political analyst’s assessment to Huerta is most acute though:
“British Government isn’t interested in telling the British people - this thing that 52% of you said you wanted - here are the range of options: there’s less good & then there’s very very bad”
“The EU27 say: ‘we are a club here are the rules, you tell us how many of the rules you are prepared to accept - and we will tell you where in the clubhouse you can go’... that is not the British conception of what this is - they see it as a negotiation between two equal parties”
Anyway - I think all this must occur on Huerta’s visit to London last December... which fully confirms our #brexitforensics story from a fortnight before then on a crisis on Brexit Aviation talks
Also worth noting that Huerta stepped down from FAA a few weeks ago - but that film is quite an insight into how the US officials really see Brexit - clearly there will be different views, and POTUS is obviously more of a fan... but no way round the Aviation issue legally
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NEW: First Minister of Scotland @NicolaSturgeon tells me at SNP conference “it would be my position “that Northern Ireland backstop on single market being negotiated right now should also apply to Scotland
The First Minister tells me she is “not going to stand in the way of NI having a solution to its issues” but that a NIO-only backstop raises “profound concerns on my part” for the competitiveness of Scotland and losing investment to Northern Ireland
I suggested to FM that surely that would imply checks on the England-Scotland border...
She said “I don’t want checks ... lets wait and see how this all plays out”
The border checks acknowledged by @simoncoveney to @SophyRidgeSky are east-west GB->N Ireland ones on food/farm produce, not North-South ones. not sure how much further that gets us, when senior DUP sources have said they would not accept any increase in what is checked...
salient fact here: offer indicated by PM amid her demand for “respect” after Salzburg was such extra NI checks/ regulatory alignment with Ireland could only be contemplated if approved for NI by Stormont - as of last week had been rejected by EU/IE, & DUP said wd veto there
nothing on paper yet though, and there is of course, no NI Assembly to reject anything...
There is some potential wriggle room, however, for example, if any further east-West checks required, could be one way ie not west-east, enabling NI produce free access to U.K. AND EU
Ministers are well aware of this case, I’ve been told that its significance may be being underplayed, I had been told that the Government would seek to appeal the Court of Session’s reference to the ECJ, but apparently didn’t, or haven’t at the most appropriate opp this week...
This is the actual reference from Scotland’s highest court directly to the European Court of Justice asking for a clarification on whether EU Law (ie Article 50) allows for unilateral revocation dropbox.com/s/3sq5dvjh8ruc… via one of the petitioners @JolyonMaugham
It could have got rather interesting constitutionally if the UK Gov had asked the Supreme Court to overrule Scotland’s highest court asking the EU Court whether a UK Govt had theoretical option to revoke A50 without negotiation, options it says it does not want.
Johnson calls the PM’s Chequers proposals
“Not pragmatic not a compromise.. this is not democracy, not what we voted for... it is a constitutional outrage” to cheers...
Says to fudge it now and fix it later “is a total fantasy”
“Chequers will only embolden those calling for a second referendum” says Johnson...