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Jun 29, 2018 20 tweets 6 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Plateau’s bloody week holds important long-term consequences for the rest of the country, as does our global poverty profile, the President taking a swipe at restructuring advocates, and the finance ministry’s chest thumping while not saying much.
The #Plateau incident underscores the simmering nature of multiple low and medium intensity conflicts occurring across #Nigeria, a historically certain prelude to a total breakdown of law and order.
Inter-communal distrust has continued to escalate with cyclical patterns of strife in conflict areas.

The pervasive loss of confidence in @AsoRock as a neutral arbiter is a key factor in this escalation as it encourages communities to adopt vigilantism with catastrophic results
On its own part, federal security assets are overstretched, and rural #Nigeria continues to be under-served in the distribution of security resources leaving such places vulnerable to predatory actions by non-state actors.
In the short term, @AsoRock could deploy troops, but there is a real concern that given the multiplicity of conflicts in #Nigeria, there may be no troops left to deploy.

Without boosting the capacity of the internal security architecture especially the long-neglected @PoliceNG,
these conflicts will persist, their impact differentiated only by peaks and troughs in casualty numbers.

The approaching #elections2019 will lend an added volatility to areas such as the Jos Plateau and the Benue Valley where there is significant anti-Fulani resentment.
As we have seen in recent incidents, reprisals against Fulani and Muslim communities could also escalate in an area in which a strong populist tradition of challenging perceived Fulani Muslim domination exists.
The latest figures from @BrookingsInst provide evidence that @AsoRock is failing to lift Nigerians out of poverty, and has also failed to diversify its revenue sources.
The much-touted recovery was in fact driven by the rebound of global oil prices and growth has been sequestered in the oil and gas sector, thus making this growth a “jobless growth” with no increment in employment figures.
The recession was seen in some quarters (including SBM) as a crisis that could spur the diversification of government revenues away from oil and gas.

In hindsight, it is now clear that the administration’s main strategy was to wait for the rebound in oil prices.
@AsoRock has tried to position agriculture as the go-to sector in its efforts at economic diversification.

But #Nigeria's agricultural base remains too vastly subsistence-oriented and rain-fed and with a very low-value addition to drive a boost in employment or food security.
Given the growing impoverishment of Nigerians, there will be some concern as to how these numbers impact on security with rising rural and urban crime and conflict; a spike in the social consequences of poverty is certain to ensue.
The fundamentals of #Nigeria's economy remain unchanged in a world in which oil is of diminishing strategic value.

This means that Nigeria remains vulnerable to global price shocks.
Finally, it is important to keep an eye on population growth which is almost twice the rate of economic growth.

For poverty figures to trend downward, economic growth has to outpace population growth.

Failing to achieve that has important political and social implications.
@HMKemiAdeosun may make vaunted claims about money being released but Nigerians have done well to demand details from her, details which @FinMinNigeria or the accountant general’s office have been unable to provide so far.
In the past, Budget Performance Reports which contained such details were routinely available online.

However, under the current administration, not only are such reports not available, several FOI requests by multiple organisations have gone unanswered.
Until these details are made available to Nigerians, this bragging about figures without supporting context will remain just, chest thumping.
At the heart of the growing calls for restructuring is a reimagination of #Nigeria’s social compact.

Nigeria’s political system has since 1966, steadily concentrated power in @AsoRock while reducing the provincial constituents to recipients of resource disbursements
– a scenario that has guaranteed poor infrastructure growth, left whole portions of the country in economic decline, stunted overall national growth and presaged the rise of many of the country’s security challenges.
For a president saddled with revitalising the economy, wilfully ignoring these realities smacks of borderline delinquency.

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More from @sbmintelligence

Sep 28, 2018
There was cheery news that regulators had seen the error of their ways regarding indiscriminate use of iron fist tactics.

This step forward was blunted by events such as leap backwards in Osun, a problematic strike action, and a return to bad old habits by a bus company.
On 25 September, @cenbank governor, Godwin Emefiele, said that he was optimistic the regulator would resolve the dispute in a way that will ensure that “everybody will be happy.”

We think this is a belated attempt at reassuring waning investor sentiment towards the country.
A day earlier, @SBGroup, one of four banks @cenbank alleged helped @MTNNG illegally repatriate $8.1 billion, said the regulator may review a decision to penalise its West African unit.
Read 27 tweets
Aug 31, 2018
Aso Rock picked on the bankers of the opposition in a busy week that also saw it acting coy on personal civil liberties and rolling the carpet for two of the EU’s most powerful leaders. All these occurred while cocoa simply could not find its way to the country’s main ports.
@officialEFCC’s interest in @ZenithBank’s transactions involving @riversstategov signals a willingness on the part of @MBuhari's administration to focus on the latter given its pre-eminence in the political architecture of the opposition @OfficialPDPNig.
@riversstategov has emerged as the hub and financial nerve centre of @OfficialPDPNig – a position that has seen its governor, @Gov_Wike, as one of the most important figures within the party's ranks, if not its most influential kingmaker.
Read 19 tweets
Jul 20, 2018
President Obasanjo once called maintaining Nigeria Airways (NAL) irresponsible. Six years later, one of his successors, despite a petition from former NAL employees appealing for ₦45 billion in severance pay, is shopping the world for an investor for a proposed national carrier.
Between a ferocious fight over revenue sharing, and ignoring the obvious on Boko Haram, bad ideas seem to die slowly, such that it has almost obscured the recognition Nigeria’s music industry got from the world’s largest music label.
The latest #BokoHaram attacks don't suggest a resurgence of the group so much as they demonstrate its resilience, capacity for strategic hibernation and stealth.

They also indicate that the financing with which it procures weapons and its recruitment remain largely uninhibited.
Read 27 tweets
Jun 6, 2018
Yesterday, a rare joint session of both houses of @nassnigeria met and issued resolutions that has set it on a collision course with @AsoRock, and holds important political and economic consequences for #Nigeria as it stares down the barrel of #election2019.
The tension between the 2 most important arms of the FG, both controlled by @OfficialAPCNg, has endured through the tenure of @MBuhari's administration and is consequential for the party, for the wider political state of the country and in driving economic policy.
Federal lawmakers, in passing a vote of confidence in the principal officers of @NGRSenate and @HouseNGR, condemned the “systematic harassment and humiliation by @AsoRock of perceived political opponents, people with contrary opinions including legislators and the judiciary,”
Read 24 tweets
Jun 1, 2018
The needle shifted a little further into the red zone with concerns over an expanded security vote chest, an import rate hike bound to affect fuel prices, talk of water colonies, and the CBN’s continued fixation on forex.
The glue that holds up the inefficient political system in #Nigeria, and skews it against both the will of the people and a level playing field for better candidates to emerge, is the existence of slush funds that warp campaign funding.
Security votes rank high up in upholding this system.

When the existence of the security votes is taken along with the abysmal security situation across the country, the irony is not lost on observers.
Read 17 tweets
Mar 12, 2018
The Egmont Group, an international body of 155 Financial Intelligence Units that provides a platform for the secure exchange of expertise and financial intelligence, meets from today, March 12, 2018, until Thursday, March 15.
A deadline to Nigeria to separate its National Financial Intelligence Unit from the EFCC lapsed yesterday, without Nigeria enacting a law that would have done so. The likely outcome of the Egmont Group’s meeting will be Nigeria’s expulsion from the group.
In July 2017, @EGFIU lost patience with #Nigeria and suspended the NFIU because of @officialEFCC's habit of leaking sensitive financial intelligence to the media.

@officialEFCC had also refused to cooperate in efforts to grant the NFIU operational independence.
Read 19 tweets

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