1/7 Decision to expand Frontex mandate is not new. It basically resembles decision to establish EBCG & MFF proposal (€ 21bn for Frontex & Border Management Fund)
2/7 Idea of 'controlled centres' appears as continuation of hotspot system. Unclear how human rights safeguards & detention are handled. Also: EASO/EUAA lack mandate to process asylum claims. 'Rapid & secure' processing would have to be done by MS
3/7 Controversial 'disembarkation centres' raise questions:
- no third country agreed to host centres. A deal could lead to more border controls & come with big price tag
- if not enough resettlement places are available, there is no incentive for migrants to use centres...
4/7... instead it could play into hands of smugglers & force migrants to cross Mediterranean
- centres could further legitimise Libyan coastguard
- proposed management by IOM&UNHCR requires more funding
5/7 On CEAS there is little progress. Restrictive harmonisation of norms & standards mainly aim at preventing secondary movement. But differences btw national asylum systems & anti/immigrant sentiments will continue to make some MS more attractive than others
6/7 As long as no compromise is found on CEAS, bilateral agreements remain a pragmatic option. 'Coalition of the willing' could legitimise Merkel's attempt to forge European solution amid domestic power struggle