John Bull Profile picture
Jul 5, 2018 17 tweets 5 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Okay. This needs a thread. It relies on a mis-understanding of the causes of the issues. BUT ALSO gives a fascinating bit of insight into Grayling himself.

Let's talk about how Grayling's weird obsession with never being wrong is screwing the DfT... #thameslink #rail #london /1
So firstly: the practicalities. This is the thread that triggered this. Read it first: short version is that DfT blew their chance to revoke GTR on performance back in April. By trying to be clever and fucking it up. /2
Now moving on to the "incompetence" charge. The problem is that the premise is flawed. Because it relies entirely on Grayling's insistence that the timetable is the SOLE responsibility of GTR, Network Rail and... well... anyone who isn't him. /3
And here you have to imagine the Jedi ghost of Dr Beeching standing behind Grayling saying:

"Chris, you'll find that many things in life depend on a certain point of view." /4
And this is where Grayling's weird psychology enters the picture - because he CANNOT accept that he's done anything wrong here. It's just not in his makeup. My understanding is that he was exactly like this at Justice too. @BarristerSecret /5
Hence why the incompetence argument is viable in Grayling's head - because the DfT CAN'T be at fault (in any way) from his point of view. Because if they are then so is he.

But the EVIDENCE is firmly that the DfT bear some of the responsibility here. /6
We've written about that a lot. Read it here. But broadly they were involved in the miscasting of numbers, didn't spot issues they should have spotted, and then didn't make a prompt decision when problems appeared. /7 londonreconnections.com/2018/holy-grai…
So in Grayling's head the incompetence charge is fine. The DfT aren't at fault and he "doesn't run the railways" (hence that piece of mental gymnastics).

But Grayling's head isn't the court of law. Law courts like evidence. And a charge of incompetence will take down DfT too /8
BUT WAIT THERE'S MORE!

(because of course there is. this whole thing is like a fucking clown car) /9
The TIMING of Grayling's incompetence statement was really interesting, because - if you follow rail franchising - you'll have spotted that the DfT seem to be making noises that they WON'T be announcing the SE Franchise award in August. /10
This pricked our ears at @lonrec so we've been digging into why for a little while now. Because - obviously - our working theory was that it was a political thing.

If our sources are correct, however, then we're WRONG.

It's because the DfT screwed up the numbers on THAT too /11
Basically, it seems like one of the bid teams found some MAJOR flaws in the DfT info and modelling. This was provided to all those bidding on which to base their timetables and pricing.

Sound familiar? /12
NOW ACTUALLY THIS ISN'T A PROBLEM. Because:

1) It was caught
2) The last direct award was long enough to cover the resulting delay

The PROBLEM for the DfT (and Grayling) is... /13
...the bid team that caught the problem with the DfT's data (and warned them about it) was...

Govia.

So, how do you make a 'your guys are shit' charge stick when the SAME people have just STOPPED you REPEATING the Thameslink mistake on SouthEastern? /14
Now as far as we can tell, Govia broke the news to the DfT just before Grayling's weird statement about incompetence. So it came just after another major challenge to his world view. which is... interesting.

Let's call it the 'Curious Incident of the SoS at Bid Time' /15
It's entirely reflective of the underlying issue here though. There are MANY good people, trying to do good work, at the DfT. But they are INCREASINGLY being hampered by a SoS who seems more dedicated to his own sense of self worth than helping them do their jobs properly. /16
Anyway. Hope that helps. You can find our detailed coverage of this whole debacle on our website. Key bits here:

londonreconnections.com/2018/holy-grai
londonreconnections.com/2018/the-cicad

If you like what we do (we're volunteers!) you can find our patreon here:

patreon.com/lonrec/ /end

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More from @garius

Oct 5, 2018
Okay. History time!

You've probably seen photos of Commonwealth war cemeteries, with rows of white graves. They're heartbreaking images.

What you DON'T see are the thousands of small, tragic stories on each gravestone.

So I'm going to share some with you here. /1 #history #WW1
These stories exist because although every stone is similar, family members were able to pay to have a small, custom inscription made on each stone.

Which is why on Pvt J Low's grave you'll find this desperately sad inscription:

"Until we meet again. Mother." /2
Of course, the ABSENCE of anything is even sadder. Too often you'll see the nine saddest words in the English language:

"A soldier of the Great War. Known only unto God"

Those words appear when we know a body is there but not who. It was Rudyard Kipling who came up with them /3
Read 23 tweets
Sep 18, 2018
Nah. Because there's something ELSE the original Predator got right and which pretty much every sequel has screwed up.

HUMAN DRAMA isn't the core plot of original Predator. THE HUNT is. /1
Predator is very cleverly written to SUGGEST that human drama is the plot (the rescue, Dillon's actions, Anna's capture) but actually they're all micro-plots.

That is, they're narrative devices that combine to further the ACTUAL plot - which is 'the Predator is on a hunt'/2
That adds to the horror and tension, because not only are the characters not able to beat the Predator, but they also AREN'T in control of the plot. They're passengers. /3
Read 22 tweets
Aug 31, 2018
So continuing last night's brief historical diversion, let's talk Admiral Bertram Ramsay. Logistical genius, Naval commander of both Dunkirk and Normandy and the most important British naval hero you've probably never heard of /1
Ramsay was a Londoner (paging @LondonHistorian) who had been a solid destroyer captain in the Dover patrol in WW1. By 1938 he'd retired, but the rapid expansion of the Admiralty in 1938 meant they needed (command) bums on seats, so they started asking old officers to help out /2
It was Churchill himself who persuaded Ramsay to put on his uniform again, and he was given a temporary commission as a Vice-Admiral. Not because anyone thought he was OMG AMAZEBALLS (although he was well regarded), but because they needed someone to run stuff at Dover. /3
Read 18 tweets
Aug 15, 2018
GRAYLING BINGO TIME!

Drink if you have "set up an enquiry" on your card.
Drink if you have "it was only a small amount of routes"
Drink if you have "unions are the problem"
Read 4 tweets
Jul 22, 2018
Okay kids, it's time! The Conservative prospects have ALL done their ConHome interviews. So our last chance to see their (often) weird views on transport before the party spin machine tells them to focus on dogwhistle racism.

SO LETS GO ON A MONORAIL HUNT! /1
Now I know it's not yet 11am, but that DOESN'T mean this isn't a drinking game. So the normal rules apply. Even if all you have to hand is tea, you have to drink when someone says:

1) financial blackhole
2) driverless
3) strikes
4) something about how they love driving /2
Ready? Cool beans. So lets start with Andrew Rosindell, current MP for Romford.

Things you should know about Andy for context:

- Loves Brexit
- Loves the Union Jack
- Wants the BBC to play the national anthem each day
- Not a big fan of equality and/or gay marriage /3
Read 51 tweets
Jul 5, 2018
Okay. Scanning through mentions. Lots of questions about the "15th July Timetable"

So let's take a look at what that really means (vs how it's being 'sold' in some quarters) #thameslink #rail #london /1
So let's get one thing straight up front:

The July timetable ISN'T about providing more services overall.

It's about formalising one that frees up GTR to resume driver training again, with the LEAST risk of disruption. /2
So if you think (or have been told) that it means you're getting YOUR train back: well... sorry. probably not.

If it's not in the timetable already (even if it's always showing 'CANCELLED') then you probably ain't getting it back /3
Read 15 tweets

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