Thread by @garius

Okay. Scanning through mentions. Lots of questions about the "15th July Timetable"

So let's take a look at what that really means (vs how it's being 'sold' in some quarters) #thameslink #rail #london /1

So let's get one thing straight up front:

The July timetable ISN'T about providing more services overall.

It's about formalising one that frees up GTR to resume driver training again, with the LEAST risk of disruption. /2

So if you think (or have been told) that it means you're getting YOUR train back: well... sorry. probably not.

If it's not in the timetable already (even if it's always showing 'CANCELLED') then you probably ain't getting it back /3

ALTHOUGH SLIGHT ADDENDUM TO THAT...

...I will be interested to see if Grayling has finally spotted that he cancelled the only train that gets @grantshapps to work on time 😉 /4

If it IS showing as CANCELLED (or is being cancelled a lot) then you MAY get a more reliable service.

This is because what GTR have been doing is looking at where the reliability issues are being caused by not having enough drivers available at a specific place or time /5

So, places, say, where they THOUGHT that they could 'budget' three drivers to run a reliable service but have instead discovered - when the timetable landed in anger - that they actually needed four. /8

Since the timetable launch, GTR have been trying to mitigate those situations by pulling drivers (and driving instructors) out of training to plug that gap. But that couldn't last forever. Because it just perpetuates the problem /7

Now they'll solve it (or try to) by REDUCING driver commitment elsewhere to plug that gap more permanently instead.

But, as you'll have spotted, that's a zero sum game. So if you like travelling off peak, I've got some bad news for you... /8

...you're probably gonna have less options.

Because driver availability is a fixed number - defined by number of people, what they're trained for/on and how many hours they can work.

So to firm up the peaks, they'll have to withdraw service elsewhere. /9

So if you're a Thameslink user, don't let anyone tell you that this timetable is 100% going to make your life better. It isn't.

AT BEST it's going to make your life more predictable (which is no bad thing). /10

AT WORST, you may find that you have less services than you have now - even if (currently) some of those services have a habit of often only existing on paper. /11

PLEASE NOTE THOUGH that Southern is actually running pretty well now (relative to how Southern ALWAYS runs!) so don't expect to see many changes at all there. /12

The real purpose / benefit for GTR here is that it allows them to try and move off a reactive, war footing and start taking steps to FINALLY plug the gaps long term.

THAT'S when we'll finally start to see if the new timetable is genuinely achievable after all /13

My other recent twitter threads on Thameslink are here:

On 'stripping the franchise' (not gonna happen)

https://twitter.com/garius/status/1014495685310402562

On Grayling's weird obsession with being 'right' (which is screwing the DfT)

https://twitter.com/garius/status/1014793954766852096

/14

And as per, you can find our detailed coverage of this whole debacle on @lonrec. Key bits here:

londonreconnections.com/2018/holy-grai… …
londonreconnections.com/2018/the-cicad… …

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patreon.com/lonrec/ /end