Huw Sayer #Writer Profile picture
Jul 7, 2018 11 tweets 5 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
1/11 It now seems there are only two ways to interpret May’s #Brexit strategy.

The first is the Optimistic assumption that she still thinks (logically if not emotionally) ‘Remain’ was the only rational choice when Leave offered no coherent choice.
2/11 Her long forgotten but excellent speech on why she would vote Remain is still our best guide to that line of thinking.…
3/11 If so, we can take at face value her apparent aim to manoeuvre towards the softest #Brexit possible.

She will deliver a ‘political’ Brexit but not an ‘economic’ one.

Our loss of political influence is just the (heavy) price we have to pay.
4/11 This Optimistic assumption makes sense when you look at her choice for DExEU.

If she’d wanted someone to grasp the detail and devise a credible hard #Brexit plan, she would have chosen Gove.

You might not like him but he is not as prone to bellicose blather as Davis.
5/11 The choice of Davis almost guaranteed that the UK would not develop an extreme (yet possibly workable) #Brexit plan in the time available.

In this Optimistic scenario, May set Davis up to fail (and he seems happy to have played the stooge).
6/11 If this Optimistic assumption is correct, then May is aiming for an #EEA/#EFTA style deal.

But she knows she could only force through through party and parliament at the last minute.

Hence her rush to trigger A50 with no plan and to delay forging cabinet consensus.
7/11 The alternative Pessimistic assumption is that May has drunk the #Brexit Kool-Aid and is now a Beleaver.

That seems to be so if you read her letter to Conservative MPs today.…
8/11 This letter is full of English exceptionalism.

The #EU must ‘shift to a third model’ to accommodate our wishes (ignoring the aims of the 27 other sovereign nations).

And we will step up preparations for a ruinous ‘no deal’ #Brexit. (As if that is remotely convincing.)
9/11 May must know that her proposals are (broadly) a non-starter for the #EU27.

Their position has been clear and consistent all along – they will not undermine the Single Market.

May’s proposals appear to do just that – and so cannot be intended to be taken seriously.
10/11 In that case, we might conclude that May and the UK cabinet:

>are setting up the negotiations to fail
>will blame the EU for not giving us our cake
>have chosen to crash-out 29/03/19 as policy not accident.

This would explain why #Brexit Ultras remain on side for now.
11/11 On that Pessimistic assumption, May is in fact fooling Remain ministers and MPs so as to cling to power until 03/19.

They are either stooges or now agree with the #Brexit Ultra end game.

Either way, things don’t bode well for the UK and our standing in the world.


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