The Crypto Priest Profile picture
Jul 10, 2018 13 tweets 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
I have a question for those of you who used the temporary high inflation in Egypt and the ongoing currency crisis in Argentina as examples of why IMF reforms, or market driven policies are bad for Nigeria.

Where do you think Egypt and Argentina would be now if they had oil?
Now, let me give you another example. Russia.

Russia has market-driven economic policies. They faced two stressors in 2015 - 2016: sharp drop in oil prices and international sanctions because of their annexation of Crimea.

Each one is enough to crush a country.
Russia went into a recession and rebounded sharply. Few countries can survive that and still hold a successful #WorldCup

Ordinary oil price drop and Nigeria is now home to the largest number of poor people in the world. Imagine if we were also hit with sanctions.
So I am here to tell you that if Egypt and Argentina had oil, like we do, we won’t even be seeing their brake lights. They would have been toasts of global investors.

I am not sorry to say this, but we are a bunch of very unserious people.
Ease of doing business and other stories, but Lagos Airport is the most expensive airport for airlines in the world.

What with our leaking roofs and carousels that are only fit for flyers in the 1950s. And air condition that work as the spirit leads.
And some knuckle-heads were boasting that Aunty Kemi is a better Finance Minister than NOI. May mediocrity never be your portion.

Right under Aunty Kemi’s nose, Customs decide what should be banned and what should not be banned. She has no say.
CBN too will come with some lists and Ministry of Agric too will be soon their own. All operating in silos. You try that nonsense with NOI and she would have dragged the hell out of you.
And you know what’s more painful? Once upon a time, we could all go to PPPRA website, bring out calculator and calculate how much subsidy Nigeria is paying at every point in time. Now, that information has turned to gold.

Take FOI to beg them to provide info, na voice mail.
Now nobody knows how much subsidy we pay. They now call it under-recovery. We are fighting corruption but there is zero transparency.

Oh, monies have been retrieved from soak away and people are dropping money at CBN. Oya show us the money, voice mail.
Meanwhile, the most corrupt administration in Nigeria showed workings. They came out and told us exactly how much subsidy Nigeria was paying and we all filed out to Ojota.

The cleanest Government came, raised fuel prices and we don’t know how much subsidy we are paying.
Oh. Forgive my manners. We don’t pay subsidy anymore.

So I am here to tell you that if you think we are doing well, we only have oil to thank. Otherwise, we would have been in the mould of Congo.
And lastly, I am here to imagine a Nigeria, flourishing like Egypt with the oil. Then use your imagination and stop selling yourself short and take your Government to task.

Stop accepting mediocrity as the norm. We are better than this. Selah.
Erratum: the last sentence should read, “Where do you think Egypt and Argentina would be now if they had oil, like we do?”

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More from @knightofdelta

Aug 27, 2018
GDP growth 1.5% for Q2 2018, a drop from 1.95% in Q1. This is not good. One would have thought that low inflation and relatively higher oil prices would have given us a push.

Meanwhile Oil GDP contracted by over 3%. This is what we are building our economy upon.
The funniest thing is that the sectors the Government have insisted on subsidizing by all means - industry and agric - both contracted.

Meanwhile the sector that has come under the heaviest regulatory pressure and messy business environment surged: Services sector.
When are we going to trash this nonsense that we must produce what we eat? Given our unusual environment - poor infrastructure - th services sector should be highly encouraged. But no.

We want to do agric without roads and manufacture without electricity.
Read 10 tweets
Aug 19, 2018
Seeing what happened to Yinka Ayefele, today will be a good day to do this thread. Nigeria is a just a portfolio country.

Will be back later in the evening.
Light reading. Nigeria is a portfolio country...…
I spoke with one boss during my last trip to Lagos. He invested massively in a logistics company. He’s barely keeping the company afloat, three years down the line.

He told me with deep regret that if he had known he would have just bought treasury bills.

Portfolio country.
Read 15 tweets
Aug 12, 2018
Time for the thread I promised.

I answered tons of questions in my DM because many of them were highly specific. Unfortunately, I couldn’t spend more time talking with each individual.
Went through all the requests and the most common issue I noticed was that people are struggling with expenses and debt.

Like I said earlier there is too much emphasis on big ticket expenses and investments in the personal finance space.
And there is this notion that you can invest (or worse still, trade) your way into covering your expenses.

We don’t talk about the defensive aspect of personal finances enough and it is clearly showing. It is not glamorous enough.
Read 26 tweets
Jul 25, 2018
Finally, we have entered that conundrum at such an inopportune time. Inflation is below the long term rate, fx reserves are high, fx rate is stable, yet the economic engine is stuttering. (Thread)
CBN is now sending mixed signals because it has reached its wits end. It is keeping MPR is high because it has to assure foreign investors that they can still get high yields on their investments.

Meanwhile, it has slowed down OMO issuance thus keeping systemic liquidity high.
Now, with such high systemic liquidity, any slight surge in inflation and investors will pull down the fx reserves.

So CBN is banking on inflation staying low. But for how long? The month on month figures are not looking too good.
Read 26 tweets
Jul 10, 2018
I have tweeted so much this morning. But I still have one last thread boiling in me and it has to do with NYSC.

If you are about to go for your NYSC or currently doing one, gather around. I will be back in the evening when my day job is done.
So now, I have time. This is my advice to those of you who will are currently serving or will go for service in the next two years.

This is an advice from someone who completed their own youth service exactly 9 years and 9 months ago. I will tweet from my personal experience.
After 10 years of working, I can now categorically say that you can only be fulfilled if you are the best or one of the best in your field.

This is not about the money. If you are so good at what you do that you cannot be ignored, the money will come. Peep my bio.
Read 18 tweets
Jul 1, 2018
The next government that will take over after this one may find themselves in a very big economic mess if things continue as they are.

I am very concerned about what I see. A thread.
Let’s start from the costs.

This Govt seem to be hiring on all cylinders. Into parastatals that are cost centers with zero to next to nothing revenue in return. The NASS is also raising their own budgetary allocations.

End game: over-bloated recurrent expenses.
We suffered in the last few years as economic ground to a halt and cost rose. Attributions include higher fuel costs with poor electricity. Many thought economy was being reset. Wrong

Subsidy is back and badder. Pilgrimage and fertilizer subsidy all intact. What are the returns?
Read 24 tweets

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