Glen O'Hara Profile picture
Jul 12, 2018 9 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Okay, we've got far enough now that we can see No. 10's #Brexit strategy. /Thread
It's basically to bring things to a head as late as humanly possible - December to late January. At that stage they will squeeze Tory rebels with (among Euroenthusiasts) 'it's this or chaos' and (among Eurosceptics) 'it's this or no Brexit at all'.
Early signs - this will help with the pro-Europeans. Will probably work there. With the Eurosceptics? You can squeeze them, but probably not below 20-30, surely.
That means No. 10 desperately needs the DUP (early signs - onside); and about 20 Labour MPs. That's the bullseye we're zeroing in on IMHO.
Can they get them? Not without some more softening. But TMay will have to do that anyway. She might be able to. Dunno.
If she can't, she can push one vote, lose it, then go again with the cliff edge even closer. Will prob shake a few more from the tree.
Would be wise for #Labour Front Bench at that stage to decide and publish exactly what they want (assuming they are able). Politically, easiest way to split Tories and look reasonable in the country.
If they get stuck just saying 'no', and they lose a chunk of MPs who basically panic at No Deal, bloodletting could be pretty awful on their side.
Basically, the winter looks like political hand-to-hand in the trenches. If you don't like post-watershed stuff, look away now. Rampant speculation ends. /END

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Glen O'Hara

Glen O'Hara Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @gsoh31

Sep 25, 2018
So now a @UKLabour split looks almost inevitable, time to look at some of its contours.
(1) How many? I think there's a big number here: 24. That's the number of MPs that in alliance with the Lib Dems would pass SNP and become third party in HoC. Get guaranteed Qs at PMQs.
(2) How? Five or six more peeling away and going indy means nowt. An attempted New Party, perhaps as part of the Lib Dems' reforms, might mean a lot more.
Read 8 tweets
Apr 17, 2018
Okay, since we're debating anti-semitism again, let's have a quick run-through of what #Labour might have done, and what they have done.
Have they announced a specific speech by the Leader, or Deputy Leader, admitting mistakes in the past, and laying out a *specific* policy agenda to tackle the problem? No.
Have they admitted that, while of course one finds AS in lots of places, there is a *particular variant* of the curse on the Left, which is insidiously worming its way into the party's DNA? No.
Read 15 tweets
Apr 16, 2018
On why #SyriaStrikes are such fertile ground for Russia. 👇
The Kremlin is an adversary that thrives on confusion, uncertainty, doubt. Syria is a complex battlefield - peculiarly fertile for dispute and disinformation. Stumbled on it by chance, but pleased to have done so.
So: have the v small number of US/UK/FR airstrikes against the regime degraded and disrupted its WMD capability? Unclear. Maybe. Scattering assets prob deepest effect.
Read 9 tweets
Oct 4, 2017
Maybe #Labour people feel smug after the Tories' self-indulgent misery-fest. They shouldn't. Theirs was a state too.
A load of people gathering for a self-congratulatory slap on each others' backs, having achieved the square root of jack nothing.
Come back when you've halved child poverty or created the National Parks. Until then, take a good look at yourselves and your smuggery.
Read 16 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!


0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy


3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!