Thread by @felicitycallard

"The working paper provides the required proof & argument against the flawed valuation method adopted by #USS. Using an appropriate valuation technique, the USS is found to be in surplus as large as £10bn ...": Woon Wong #USSbriefs34 on the phantom deficit medium.com/ussbriefs/indu…

Wong: "many actuarial practices should be reviewed ... [T]here is a need to examine the economics of risk & return from a long term perspective ... given ... low interest rates, de-risking can be suboptimal & extremely expensive" #USSbriefs34 working paper medium.com/ussbriefs/indu…

Wong insists that the #USS valuation can be resolved if there is appropriate time given to it: "say 2 to 3 years of proper research & discussion between all relevant academics, the actuary industry & tPR (of course these include UUK and UCU)" #USSbriefs34

But time is precisely what is being squeezed. UUK in latest briefing paper says: "UUK has emphasised to the USS Trustee the importance of implementing any reforms in as short a period as practicable" academicfreedom.watch/sites/default/…

One of political battle grounds, then, is around *time*. UUK lays out the risk/threat that period of higher contributions (during period of cost-sharing) might result in employer-led rebellion to escape USS medium.com/ussbriefs/stay… #USSbriefs33

The #JEP should insist that enough time be given so as properly to resolve the problems in the approach to #USS valuation. cf. a 'quick fix', rapidly implemented, to minimise period of raised contributions – which won't solve the problems of the valuation approach #OpenUPP2018

All members of #USS should be cognisant of battle over time – of what could be gained if appropriate time is given to resolve problems in approach to valuation, & what is likely to be lost (DB pensions) if minimising period of higher contributions becomes highest/only priority

All members of #USS should be cognisant of the threats that we might well hear – e.g.of 'radical options' needing to be taken that will break up #USS – in the service of insisting that period of higher contributions must be as short as possible academicfreedom.watch/sites/default/…

#USS pension dispute has always been a dispute over time (a fight over futures). Expect this autumn – when #JEP reports & when #USS consults on contribution increases – for the temporal politics to ramp up several notches

Oh, & read this medium.com/ussbriefs/stay… #USSbriefs33 END

P.S. Or you can listen to #USSbriefs33 "Staying Vigilant". Thanks Stan Papoulias for reading it!

https://twitter.com/USSbriefs/status/1017682091323031552

1 We can sort problems w #USS valuation (see @OpenUPP2018 submissions) & keep DB
2 This will likely take a bit of time (several actors incl tPR involved)
3 How many senior university people are fighting for this, rather than cleaving to shortest implementation period possible?