Thread by @ThimontJack

Before the #whitepaper we thought amdts from Tory Remainers would be the big story this week on the #Brexit bills

Instead, after number of govt resignations, all eyes are on Brexiteer amdts to #CustomsBill

But what do they mean & what are some of the other amdts? 1/

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1018811384287686656

ERG amdts
-prevent govt from collecting taxes/duties for territory without reciprocity
-NI can't be in separate customs territory to GB
-have to pass Act of Parl to participate in customs union
-remove powers to govern VAT of goods from territory if in a customs union with it 2/

1st is most difficult for govt as it goes against the govts customs proposal which would require the UK to collect tariffs on behalf of the EU

More info here: instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/pms…

Other 3 are compatible with govt policy but would prevent movement to a softer #Brexit 3/

Labour frontbench will not vote with ERG (although a couple of Labour rebels might!) but number of Tory MPs who vote against govt will give an idea of how many might be willing to vote against withdrawal agreement in October... maths is tight in the House so all votes count! 4/

Beyond ERG drama, Tory remainers have tabled an amdt to make remaining in the EU customs union a negotiating objective of govt

The experience of #EUWithdrawalBill showed lack of willing amongst these MPs to vote against govt & this is not Labour frontbench policy so... 5/

Don't expect a govt defeat there.

Worth pointing out that other Tory remainer amdts - which added sunset clauses to some of the powers given to ministers in the bill - have been picked up by the govt and tabled by the Chancellor

So Tory remainers have been successful there 6/

Labour frontbench have tabled their own amdts:

2 address making securing tariff-free access, and full access to 'internal market', of EU negotiating objectives

Others address parliamentary scrutiny of regulations made under Act

But unlikely to have votes for any of these 7/

SNP have also tabled lots of amdts - some of which address similar issues to Labour e.g. parliamentary scrutiny - and others address the role of Scottish Parliament/ministers giving consent to some of the regulations made under the bill

Again, unlikely to have the votes 8/

IMPORTANT REMINDER: although there are over 100 new clauses/amdts (some of which are from the govt) not all of these will actually be debated - the Speaker decides and they don't have a huge amount of time to debate - 3rd reading vote expected c.10pm 9/

Essentially:

-don't expect govt defeats on the amdts but look out for number of rebels

-do expect govt to try and appease its Brexiteer backbenchers to try and get them back on board, they will be thinking about crucial votes in October...

/END

UPDATE apparently the govt has accepted all four ERG amdts - this appears to make the govts Facilitated Customs Arrangement impossible...