Aashish Chandorkar Profile picture
Jul 21, 2018 8 tweets 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
A lot of analysis since yesterday's #NoConfidenceMotion has been made in the media. Lot of focus on RaGa hug and wink and how he has come of age yet again.

Key points related to alliances however not that prominently discussed. A short thread.
First, Congress inability to stitch a Mahagathbandhan on the floor of the House.

In the run up to the #NoConfidenceMotion, Sonia Gandhi had herself expressed confidence in numbers. In reality, Congress couldn't get its own MPs and allies to attend.

What's more bizarre, the seniormost Congress MP Kamal Nath actually rubbished and mocked the #NoConfidenceMotion on camera.

Even assuming that some Congress and its supporting MPs didn't attend the Lok Sabha session despite the whips issued, the difference between potential and actual votes (145 and 126) is quite large. Quite likely there was cross voting on the floor.
Secondly, the @narendramodi govt got 325 votes despite Shiv Sena abstaining. A bunch of AIADMK MPs voted for the govt. TRS, BJD abstained despite being vocal critics.

Despite media going gaga over Mahagathbandhan, it was BJP which pulled off a much better alliance strategy.
Thirdly, PM @narendramodi spoke in fair detail about the insults Congress has meted out to Pranab da, Kaka Pawar and ex PM Devegowda.

This theme may continue in the campaign where the PM will tell their supporters how their leaders are choosing power over personal insults.
Regional leaders derive their political capital from regional pride. Kowtowing to Congress despite being insulted in the past will get linked to regional pride being attacked.

This is the cost BJP will impose over potential Mahagathbandhan partners.
All three points demonstrate that the #NoConfidenceMotion was a complete political washout for the opposition. BJP came out stronger not just in terms of votes, but also in terms alliance narrative.

But real political calculation has never been as important as a hug and a wink.

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