Luke Cooper Profile picture
Jul 21, 2018 9 tweets 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
So here’s my response to @AyoCaesar on #newsnight:

- I respect this position but it’s very difficult to see a scenario that the far right can’t profit from.
- So if we break these scenarios down then they all look beneficial to the far right: /1
—— (a) Soft Brexit gives them the betrayal narrative they crave. We’ve already seen an electoral bounce for UKIP over the govt’s new soft Brexit policy (at a time when Ukip is obviously making a turn to the fascist street movement). /2
—— (b) Hard Brexit offers a clear route to “no brexit” but we’d all be playing with fire if we saw it in these terms. The economic dislocation and political crisis it would ignite would be huge gift to far right.
—— (c) Given the other two scenarios offer a clear path for the advance of the radical right. It doesn’t seem plausible to use that as an argument against a democratic route out of Brexit position a la a #peoplesvote /4
I do accept though that there are no good options. This week’s polling evidence that shows the strength of support for a no deal Brexit (33% on first preferences alone!) does complicate the #peoplesvote demand as no serious government could put this on the ballot paper /5
On the other hand, the same poll showed the paucity of support for soft Brexit (just 17%) which clearly undermines the current Labour position. After all, the latter has always been explicitly based on an electoral calculation /6
In this situation, Corbyn supporters like ourselves do, I think, need to recognise the power of @TomBaldwin66’s point re leading, not following.
Finally, against a bad set of options, the most desirable outcome is surely the one laid out by @paulmasonnews: that Labour should offer a referendum on a deal it negotiates once in power. /8
This would allow the party to respect the vote but also be honest that a negotiated soft Brexit isn’t as good as the current deal aka membership. /8

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More from @lukecooper100

Aug 10, 2018
Long Brexit survey from YouGov with some interesting findings. Full results well worth looking at. It confirms the now standard pattern of a consistent Remain lead but with a still stubbornly high Leave vote (53 vs 47%). However... /1…
There is a big decline in support for a 'no deal Brexit' which now stands at 27% (down from 38% in the poll from the earlier in the month) /2
This suggests the extremely negative economic implications of 'no deal' are beginning to cut through to parts of the Leave electorate /3
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