The two biggest revelations in the (highly redacted) #CarterPage FISA warrant applications published today are: (A) the FBI believed that “the Russian government’s efforts [were] being coordinated with Page and perhaps other individuals associated with” Mr. Trump’s campaign,
1/ and that Mr. Page is a Russian agent who “has been collaborating and conspiring with the Russian government”; and
2/ (B) there was an original application and three renewals, the length of the applications growing significantly each time: first 66 pages, then 79 pages, 91 pages and 101 pages, respectively.
3/ To get the three renewals, the government had to show the court that the surveillance had been productive.
4/ The FBI and DOJ fiercely resisted pressure from Congressional Republicans and the WH to publish the materials at all; the fact that it did is unprecedented.
5/ Virtually all of the published material is redacted, and a very large portion of the unredacted materials is confined to matters concerning the Steele dossier. That is clearly a response (and capitulation) to Republican pressure and obsession about Steele.
6/ It would be *very* interesting to know the intel that the surveillance of Page had produced that justified the renewals, but we learn nothing about that. But it is surely there in the unredacted portions of the materials, which grew steadily in length.
7/ Because the DOJ-FBI could not disclose the really important intel, and capitulated to Republican pressure to unredact the material on Steele, the result is 412 pages that provide an opening
8/ for Republicans to claim that the FBI’s Russia investigation was nothing but a political “witch hunt” from the beginning--which is entirely unwarranted.
9/ The bombshell takeaway is that the government has evidence, based on the surveillance of Page over almost a one year period, and probable cause to believe that Carter Page, despite his public denials,
10/ is a Russian agent who has been “collaborating and conspiring with the Russian government,” and that Russian government efforts to undermine and influence the 2016 election were “coordinated with Page and perhaps other individuals associated with” Mr. Trump’s campaign.
11/ #CarterPage is in *big* trouble.

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More from @twoodiac

Oct 9, 2018
One key to getting to the bottom of this is the private-wealth office of Deutsche Bank. @NatashaBertrand
I posted this to Twitter a long time ago. It’s from Yuri Felshtinsky and Vladimir Pribylovsky, The Corporation: Russia and the KGB in the Age of President Putin. Encounter Books. 2008, pp. 40-41 (not available online):
Read 4 tweets
Oct 6, 2018
Let’s try to clear up some confusion here.

We need to be clear about terms like “investigation,” “inquiry,” and “background check.”

Let’s begin with a relatively unloaded term: “inquiry.” 1/16
Here’s the question: Should the INQUIRY re #Kavanaugh have been conducted as a standard FBI BACKGROUND CHECK or as an FBI INVESTIGATION? 2/16
An FBI background check is not the same thing as an FBI investigation (though the former might very well lead to the latter). 3/16
Read 16 tweets
Oct 5, 2018
(THREAD) Collins votes YES, so Kavanaugh’s confirmed.

This is the finale of the confirmation VOTE, but it is NOT the end of the #Kavanaugh ISSUE. 1/14
The FBI “investigation” was a sham, and that makes Collins’ special pleading for her YES vote a sham. It was a sickening performance. 2/14
The fatal weakness of her defense of her vote is that there was no meaningful investigation. Merely seeking corroboration in the form of direct, eyewitness testimony from the participants of the 1 Jul 1982 meeting does not constitute a meaningful investigation. 3/14
Read 14 tweets
Oct 4, 2018
A subjective impression, admittedly, but in the pics and videos I have seen, Senate Rs look grim and worried--even, on occasion, angry.

D claim that this was a cover-up (20+ witnesses not called) is getting traction. No adequate push back from Rs yet.
McConnell saying on the floor that the Senate must vote to confirm b/c “in this country you’re not guilty until proven innocent” has this whole matter so wrong (it’s a job interview, Mitch, not a trial) that he must be feeling a little desperate.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 2, 2018
(THREAD) The predicted early conclusion of the FBI background check on #Kavanaugh that has been reported by Politico and the WSJ is surprising and cause for anxiety and concern, but let’s look try hard to look on the (possibly) bright side. 1/8
We must keep in mind that this investigation is essentially a background check on #Kavanaugh, in light of newly surfaced allegations of belligerent drunkenness and sexual violence alleged against him by Ford and others. 2/8
So this investigation is more about Kavanaugh and his nomination than it is about Ford or any other accusers, and while the FBI does not reach conclusions, it does uncovers facts, and presents those facts to others so they can better reach their own conclusions. 3/8
Read 8 tweets
Oct 1, 2018

1/ Dr Blasey: The party where the assault occurred was attended by Smyth (P.J.), Judge, Kavanaugh, another boy she can’t recall…
2/ Remember: Kavanaugh’s calendar (July 1) has Chris Garrett, her boyfriend at the time (she was at least dating him) at that party.
Read 15 tweets

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