#JSM2018 Don Rubin as Yoda, care of Jorg Dreschler
#JSM2018 Don Rubin talking about developing multiple Imputation on organization and industry codes at Census. Codes written on 3x5 cards, not computer readable cards, so hard to do anything with it
#JSM2018 Rubin Prediction is different from inference. Be sensitive to what your loss function is.
#JSM2018 Rubin One of the things that has changed over the years is not having to apologize for turning everything into random variables.
#JSM2018 Raghu does a great job of putting together a phony dataset for simulation that doesn’t look like a phony dataset.
#JSM2018 Rubin telling stories of what Cochran told him that Fisher said to him about bad allocations of randomized designs
#JSM2018 Rubin what really exists are Data values, models are wrong. So need to worry about predicting real data values.
#JSM2018 Rubin: Fisher got the wrong answers for intermediate outcomes. Why? Because he hated Neyman and refused to use his notation.
#JSM2018 Rubin Is now 5 minutes past session time ending and the audience is hanging on every word
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#JSM2018 Tobias Schmidt Looking at interviewer experience and interview duration
#JSM2018 Schmidt In this survey, duration linked to interviewer salaries.
#JSM2018 Schmidt Looking at interviewer experience over the course of survey and respondent experience within survey and experience over repeated surveys. Looking in particular at experience within panel survey for both Iers and Rs
#JSM2018 Wuyts Interested in within-survey workload. Use call history data and interview time data. Some Measure workload by fixed measures of experience and interview order cumulated over the field period. They use actual number of cases assigned at time t in field period
#JSM2018 Wuyts Use Paradata to create new measures of interview workload, based on sample units assigned on given day
#JSM2018 Rebecca Powell from @RTI_Intl talking about an experiment on Add Health shifting from interviewer administered to self administered survey
#JSM2018 Powell moved to a 55 self-administered survey from 90 minutes interviewer administered. Worried about response burden with this length of self-admin survey. Randomized n=7600 into either full 55 minute survey or 2 modules- one 35 minutes then 20 minutes.
#JSM2018 Powell Could select to continue on the web. In paper, had to first complete module A, then sent module B. Cover letters told about modules in the incentive part, but not up front. $55 incentive total in each condition
#JSM2018 The brilliant Susan Murphy is this year’s Fisher Lecture award recipient!
#JSM2018 Murphy Lab does sequential experimentation in improving health. Some for companies.
#JSM2018 Murphy Experimentation and continual optimization is key. How do we use learning as an experiment is put into the field to improve outcomes for individuals? Mobile interventions are key here. Intervention may be either a push intervention or pull intervention
#JSM2018 Next up Hubert Hamer from NASS talking about NASS Small Area Estimation
#JSM2018 Hamer NASS has Agriculture Loss Coverage County Option program. Payments triggered based on county crop revenue falling below program guarantee. NASS surveys used to make this decision, along with other data
#JSM2018 Hamer Program paid out $3.7 billion on 2016. Small changes can affect payments
#JSM2018 Peter Miller appearing as a Northwestern University emeritus professor, providing comments on the CNSTAT reports
#JSM2018 Miller Survey paradigm vs multiple data source paradigm. Surveys may become irrelevant b/c they are slow, not granular, not nimble, costly, not sustainable
#JSM2018 Miller Multiple Data sources require new: methods, computing resources, privacy protections, training, data quality frameworks. Not cheap. What does this give us?