New Foreign Secretary @Jeremy_Hunt is in Paris to discuss Brexit & bilateral relations. Can he expect any favours? (mini thread)
1. The good news: France values UK relationship – ally in Middle East, Africa, UN and NATO & partner on intelligence, counter-terrorism. Discussions take place at bilateral level, so largely unaffected by Brexit.
2. The flip-side: France clear that Brexit negotiations are led by the EU. Its position hasn’t changed: UK cannot expect same benefits or preferential treatment. UK-EU trade will inevitably be weaker.
3. Some empathy: France understands Brexit complexity & domestic constraints – but surprised at how long it has taken UK gov to publish White Paper on future UK-EU deal.
4... Speaking of: White Paper is a welcome contribution, but still seen as cherry-picking. Understand that UK looking to defend its own interests, but EU must do the same.
5. One for all & all for one: confused about UK approach to negotiations: Commission not 1 player among 28; it negotiates on behalf of all 27. "EU is united on Brexit"
6. Power of interests: no secret that some in France see Brexit as an opportunity. French Foreign Minister Le Drian to Japanese businesses earlier this year: “UK will be out of EU; we would welcome you in France”
7. No Brexit breakthrough: want to avoid no deal but also Brexit not a priority – social cohesion, labour reforms, security, EU reform, Russia, Middle East, Africa, US are. Plus, negotiations led by EU Commission. END.
1. Different priorities for different MS: EU position will be outcome of careful internal negotiations (MS x gets this, MS y gets that)
2. EU inflexibility is its strength: "we can't really budge on this issue because of internal compromises". Also one of the reasons why EU is so successful at getting what it wants out of trade negotiations..
Listening to David Davis @RUSI_org and I am none the wiser. But some takeaways below:
1. A reminder that the UK wants special relationship with EU (due to shared history, shared challenges, collective security). White Paper will put forward practical solutions how this can be achieved.
2. But.. those practical solutions have yet to be approved by UK Cabinet. Unclear when White Paper will be published. No solution on 'backstop' before October EU Council.
Very interesting, but I doubt EU would accept. Why? (Thread)
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1. Concern is not really about standards: EU expects the UK to diverge – otherwise what is the point of leaving the SM & CU?
2. It’s about how you manage divergence: EU has a sophisticated system to monitor compliance and enforce common standards (why? See this by @nick_gutteridge : goo.gl/3x4KF1).
One year of President Macron – what have we learnt? Short thread.
1. The Liberal Champion: he sees multilateralism and cooperation as key to solving global problems; many see him as the liberal champion par excellence. Global attention helped by relative absence of other players: UK (Brexit); Germany (until recently in coalition talks); Trump
2. The Traveller: continually on the move (30+ trips in his first year in office, compared to just 25 for President Hollande).