Thread by @KevinCate

Rough 2018 TV spending numbers in #flgov primary:

Greene: $13,495,158
Levine: $10,685,644
Graham: $5,402,488
King: $3,877,897
Gillum: $98,490

But not all TV is equal. In gross rating points...

Broadcast TV gross rating points through this week:

Levine: 33,390
Greene: 32,990
King: 21,657
Graham: 9,490
Gillum: 0

What this means is...

Hypothetically, spread over 10 markets imperfectly because markets are different and not everyone is spending in all, the average voter has seen ads by these candidates this many times:

Levine: 33
Greene: 33
King: 21
Graham: 11 (number above was actually 11,417 GRPs)
Gillum: 0

So, if all candidates/commercials were even, the polls should have Levine and Greene tied for first followed by King and Graham.

We know that's not the case. So something else is happening.

The race is setup for a very close four way finish between Gillum, Graham, Levine, and yes, Greene.

I talked a little about the weird TV things very early here:
medium.com/@KevinCate/som…

@fineout points out some spending things here:
findout.typepad.com/the_fine_print…

On the current spends, @GwenGraham is getting far more bang for her buck with a (relatively) low level of GRPs (11,417).

On the TV side, my theory and internal research makes me think when @AndrewGillum gets to a relatively low level of GRPs, he will break through.

And given that he's starting at around 15-20% with zero GRPs, depending on which polls you believe, a reasonable 10-15 point bounce from paid TV gets him to a win number... plus bonus of statewide exposure from increased media attention & inflection points like @BernieSanders....

And by far the most ground game enthusiasm. I'm telling you, @AndrewGillum has a very, very, clear path to the nomination.

Time to get it done.