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A look at battery cost declines and why so many people thought there would never be an affordable #EV
When $TSLA launched the Model S this is what the cost decline for lithium-ion batteries looked like.
Analysts and forecasting agencies figured batteries were a mature technology and had reached a price floor.
Analysts and forecasting agencies figured batteries were a mature technology and had reached a price floor.
But, for manufactured goods, cost decline forecasts shouldn't be time based or made by dragging forward historic declines. Wright's Law is relatively robust and states that for every cumulative doubling in production, there's a fixed percent cost decline
So if a technology is adopted by a new industry/application, a cumulative doubling in production can occur much faster than it has in the past. For batteries that new application was electric cars.
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