Hello from central Ohio. Because our firm worked on Danny O’Connor’s race, some people have asked me what I think will happen tonight. Spoiler alert: I’m not sure. We may win! If we do win, there are a few important reasons why – follow me on a short #OH12 thread. 1/9
First, message discipline. Our campaign’s message was clear--providing a new gen of leadership in DC, treating health care and Soc. Sec. like personal issues, and getting past partisanship. Anyone who saw any of our ads or heard Danny speak would have seen that. #OH12 2/9
As a contrast, GOP was all over the map. This was about Pelosi. Or opioids. Or MS-13. Or maybe we hated seniors. Or maybe all of it! With no shortage of cash, I counted 5 diff GOP ads this week. None felt like had anything to do w/ other 4. Message whiplash. #OH12 3/9
Second, candidate quality still matters. Danny is our strongest salesman. We saw it from day 1. People like him. He’s genuine, he treats voters w/ respect and he doesn’t feel like what they’re used to. We were happy to have him carrying our message day in and day out. #OH12 4/9
On other side, GOP spent millions scraping Troy to 29% in May then promptly put him on milk carton. No press, very little exposure. Kasich threw him under bus on nat’l TV, Trump forgot his name, and we saw why when he told the district’s biggest county to drop dead. #OH12 5/9
Third is widening education gap is very real. Huge discrepancies between col/non-col voters in our surveys. This is best educated district in OH and turnout will likely be low. That’s a good cocktail for Dems. Portends real doom for GOP in places like #IL6, #CO6 in Nov. #OH12 6/9
Fourth–and I’m getting ahead of myself here–is energy/turnout matters. Every poll (internal and otherwise) showed distinct enthus. gap in Dem favor. If we keep this close tonight, it won’t be because we spent more $, it will be because our side was desperate to vote. #OH12 7/9
Trump coming in this weekend may have helped close that gap, we’ll see shortly. This isn’t too different from the other special elections this cycle. Remember, this is not the 23rd or 24th district the Dems need in 2018. It’s closer to the 60th. #OH12 8/9
The fact we’re even watching this district closely tonight is energizing for Dems everywhere. It would be great to win and we very well might – but GOP MUST win comfortably to have any chance of controlling narrative w/ just 91 days til E-Day. Have fun tonight, friends! #OH12 9/9
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