Nate Silver Profile picture
Aug 8, 2018 3 tweets 1 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
I think I'd rather be Colyer than Kobach at this stage in #KSGOV. Down ~850 votes statewide but with the large majority of populous Johnson County left to count, and Colyer is winning there 47-34 so far.
We were debating on the liveblog earlier tonight whether Johnson Co. would be good for Kobach (he's from there) or bad for him (it's affluent and well-educated and not very Trumpy). Looks like the latter theory is the favorite. Still, lots of votes left to count there.
* Maybe not "from" there but launched his career on the Overland Park city council. Anyway, I've spent some time in Johnson Co. and it doesn't seem very Kobach-y to me. But, results are liable to vary a fair bit from town to town and not sure where the vote is in from so far.

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More from @NateSilver538

Oct 7, 2018
Currently, the *average* Senate seat is about 6 points more Republican than the country overall (because smaller-population states happen to be more Republican right now). Adding DC and PR as states would reduce that advantage to about 2 points instead.
But people should be mindful that relatively subtle shifts in demographic coalitions can change which party benefits a lot. Obama's vote share was highly correlated with Clinton's, and yet he *over-performed* in the Electoral College while she uhhh didn't.
But of the various structural changes people are proposing, DC/PR statehood is (i) pretty easy to defend on the merits (ii) relatively easy to do and (iii) goes a fairly long way toward addressing racial & partisan imbalance in the Senate.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 2, 2018
Maybe this is an obvious point, but it seems like Kavanaugh's defenders want to judge his lies/misdirections by the standards of a political or a partisan operative, rather than those of a Supreme Court nominee under oath.
Maybe just make that argument explicitly? Say something like: "Sure, he spins things to his advantage. And I'll concede that there are a few outright lies, if you want to be super literal. But that's to be expected when the stakes are this high, and Democrats have done it too."
Not sure I *agree* with the argument above but I at least find it intellectually coherent. But this defense should acknowledge that 1) this is a big shift in how we judge SCOTUS nominees and 2) it's unusual to have a SCOTUS nominee who thinks & speaks like a partisan operative.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 30, 2018
So far, there are polls on Kavanaugh from YouGov, Ipsos and Change Research. Plus those Upshot/Siena district polls have been in the field. It's a little early to draw conclusions but main themes so far seem to be... (continued...)
1. Overall views on confirmation aren't that much changed, but perhaps a bit worse than Kavanaugh than before (and they weren't too good before)
2. Ford seen as more believable by pluralities of voters.
3. Quite a few undecided voters; people don't have their minds fully made up.
4. Partisans on both sides have much stronger feelings than independents, but some evidence that Democrats rather than Republicans are actually the most activated and have the most intense feelings.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 29, 2018
Something for everyone in this poll but interesting that Democrats are actually more charged up about Supreme Court nominations than Republicans.
We need to see a lot more data and this might look different in 3 weeks. I do think one should be wary of assertions by conservative elites that Kavanaugh will reduce the enthusiasm gap. Maybe? But what unifies conservative elites won't necessarily galvanize the base.*
Read 4 tweets
Sep 19, 2018
Seems fair to say that Democrats' polling is underwhelming in states and districts with large numbers of Hispanic voters. At the same time, polling has sometimes lowballed Democrats' numbers in these areas.
By the same token, Democrats' most impressive polling is probably in the Midwest, which is where Trump beat his polls in 2016.
We could get into a discussion about whether polling error is persistent from year to year. If you missed low on R's in a certain state 2 years ago, are you likely to also do so this year? To a first approximation, the answer is "not necessarily", but it's a complicated question.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 18, 2018
The GOP's least-worst outcome, politically, is probably if Kavanaugh withdraws in advance of the hearing—and it sounds like that's what McConnell would really prefer if he had the choice.
The predicate is that time is precious for the GOP. If Kavanaugh were to withdraw *now*, they just *might* have enough time to confirm someone else before the midterm, or at least establish a foothold for the new nominee before the lame-duck session.
But probably not if Kavanaugh flails around for 2 weeks and *then* is forced to withdraw. I also think expecting to confirm someone in the lame duck session could be hard *if* Democrats win the Senate (~33% chance) and the new nominee hasn't established that foothold pre-Nov. 6.
Read 5 tweets

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