Pieter de Wilde Profile picture
Aug 8, 2018 13 tweets 6 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Getting Member States involved in #Brexit negotiations will not help the #UK. It will most likely fuel domestic politicization of Brexit in #EU27 countries. This will be detrimental to UK interests.
UK #Brexit strategists and commentators as diverse as @Jeremy_Hunt, @CER_Grant , @anandMenon1 and @fromTGA warn about the dangers of No Deal for British public opinion and call on #EU27 member states to get involved.

The British people will hate the EU for a generation, they warn.

The idea/hope is that MS governments will be more willing to give in to British demands. I think this is a flawed argument that overlooks the dynamics of politicization.
With the exception of #Ireland, Brexit has not ruffled many feathers beyond elite circles in the #EU27 so far. Media coverage portrays Brexit as a 'remote conflict': within the UK and between the UK and @MichelBarnier.
That will change if one of two conditions is met.
1) when Brexit 'hits home': domestic GDP growth damage, jobs lost, rights lost. The harder Brexit, the stronger this effect, with No Deal as extreme.
2) when Heads of State or Prime Ministers get involved. Media always cover intergovernmental negotiations in the EU more than anything else. Prime Ministers are like a red flag for journalists.
The more MS government leaders get involved in Brexit, the more media coverage there will be in #EU27. More media coverage provides a broader stage for the opp to pressure gov to defend the national interest.
This 'national interest' will be opposed to the British interest, for the sake of articulating conflict, generating more media coverage, generating pressure on the national government. Thinking Europeans are overall more rational than the British is sadly mistaken.
Such politicization will be detrimental to the UK, because the EU's success in framing and steering Brexit negotiations until now is at least as remarkable as the UK government's failure to do so.
.@MichelBarnier et al have successfully created the following narrative:
1. The UK is leaving against our wishes (any damage is the UK's fault).
2. We have offered several options (the UK must chose one of them).
3. All these options are reasonable and logical (others are not).
The success of this narrative means Brexit is seen as selfish. "Britain is unwilling to take its responsibility. It wants to have its cake and eat it too. It is deserting us and simultaneously trying to rip us off. Our PM must defend us against the British." That will be the tone
Expect @thierrybaudet to demand that @MinPres sails up the Thames again like it is 1667 in retaliation for all the damage that Brexit is doing to Dutch interests. That from Britain's close European allies.
The politicization that comes with No Deal or @EUCouncil involvement in Brexit negotiations is more likely to be like the current Irish debate (pretty anti-English), than some kind of rational demand that the EU gives the UK what it wants.

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