Two graphs to illustrate the key take-aways from the #OH12 special election.
First, Balderson's % plotted against Trump's % by county in the district. (The Trump numbers are only from precincts in the 12th dist.) Balderson just a little less than Trump in each county. (Circles ~ to turnout.)
Second turnout in each county plotted against Trump's % in those counties. (Again, only looking at precincts in the 12th dist.) Biggest drop-off in strongest pro-Trump counties.
This is probably not a story of shifting sentiments so much as shifting mobiliziation, interest, enthusiasm, etc.

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More from @cstewartiii

Aug 23, 2018
In the process of writing a paper about the reliability of voter registration statistics in EAVS, I've done a survey of VR/list maint. reports issued by states. Especially good ones are available from Florida, Virginia, and Washington.
Read 4 tweets
Jul 28, 2018
1/7 The cult of the voting machine strikes again.
politico.com/story/2018/07/…
2/7 The security problems that were unearthed during the 2016 election have very little to do with voting machines, but rather, the computer systems that support the administration of elections.
3/7 Many states do need new voting machines, but that’s primarily because they are old and beginning to break down. This article at least credits the fact that many states were already beginning to address the decrepitude of the machines.
Read 7 tweets
May 28, 2018
Thought-provoking article by Nicole Goodman and @leahstokes on the effect of Internet voting on turnout in local Ontario elections: doi.org/10.1017/S00071…
While framed as an article about Internet voting, it might be better to think about it as an article about convenience voting in low-salience elections. It has a lot for friend, foe, and indifferents about Internet and convenience voting to think about.
This article suggests one way how _not_ to implement Internet voting if you care about turnout: require pre-registration. However, that just increases the security concerns.
Read 4 tweets
Apr 19, 2018
Q&A session on the use of the election security funds administered by the @EACgov just finished up. Here are some points addressed. Most are probably obvious, but you never know...
There's an FAQ on the use of the funds here: eac.gov/faq/default.as…
There are some things the money CAN'T be used for: voter registration drives, ballot purchases; get-out-the-vote efforts. Systems that support these efforts, ESPECIALLY the security hardening of voter registration systems, can be supported.
Read 6 tweets

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