Ben Gretch Profile picture
Aug 17, 2018 33 tweets 12 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
This morning, I called this my favorite stat this year. But then I thought that was an exaggeration. It's my favorite stat for the #Cardinals.

Here's my favorite stat for every other team. #Thread
#Falcons in 2016: 1.57 TDs per FG attempt
2017: 0.85 TDs per FG att
Joe Flacco was 7th in pass atts in 2017, never threw for 300 yds, averaged <200 per game.
Only team to average fewer than 500 pass atts from 2015-17 (way down at 471). Second most QB runs in that span. Pass volume 🔼
McCaffrey: including playoff loss, 26.5 rush yds per game, only 2 rush TDs.

Still broke 20 PPR points in 6 games, in single-digits just 4 times, season low was 7.8 FP. RB receiving is gold.
Per @RotoUnderworld, 9th-highest run ratio despite 7th-lowest average scoring differential
League-low 927 total plays. Were over 1,000 in each of 8 prior seasons.

Play volume 🔼
Josh Gordon: 7.98 YPT on 42 targets with one-third of them graded uncatchable. (Kizer’s 146 uncatchable throws “led” the league. He only threw 476 passes.)
Ezekiel Elliott: League leader in rush yards per game two seasons in a row. Averages 104.6 in 25 career games.
(Alternate note: on/off splits more drastic for Tyron Smith than Zeke, but hard to fit in a tweet.)
Since Manny Sanders came to Denver in 2014, no third DEN passing option has eclipsed a 13% target share for the season.
In 13 games with Keenum, Diggs, Thielen all in the lineup, Rudolph was MIN’s third option at 15%.
Marvin Jones w/ or w/o Kenny Golladay. They earn targets in similar parts of the field - 15.2 aDOT vs. 14.8; next highest Lion: 10.3.
2017 red zone target share leaders:
1. Davante Adams - 37.1%
2. Jimmy Graham - 36.6%
Both had 10 TDs last year, boosting their fantasy finishes. Now they play on the same team.
Watson: 9.3% TD%. Talked about a lot but important for whole team. Game level factors also impacted his small sample:
2017: 487 pass attempts (3rd fewest)
Brissett: 2.9 deep balls per game (2nd fewest among QBs w/ 300+ atts)
527 rush attempts (most by any team since 2014), 4th-highest average differential (game script)
Alex Smith: Second-highest deep ball completion percentage in 2017
Team: Very difficult pass schedule any way you slice that (LAC twice, JAX, LAR, among others)
Keenan Allen: Five 30-plus PPR games in 25 games over last three seasons (plus 29.7 in another). Think what you want about him being a high-floor, low-ceiling player.
Robert Woods: WR18 in PPR PPG, still just 26 y/o, feels like a forgotten man bc he missed four games last year.
holy crap, we're only barely over the halfway mark. downhill from here tho.
Vacated targets and air yards most notable. Stills PPR WR26 last year, going later this year.

But, also, league-low 360 rush attempts last year is notable.
Backs combined for top five in total red zone touches and touches inside the 5:
RB receiving role has really grown in recent years:
In 12 seasons since Brees/Payton came to NO, top 5 in RB targets every year, led league 7 times, led league in both 2016 & 2017.
Also, TDs last year: 23 rush, 23 receiving (had at least double the pass TDs vs rush for 7 consecutive prior years; Brees 🔼)
Shurmur leaned on Dalvin last year, but also a #bad rookie in the past. No concern about Saquon's workload for me:
Robby Anderson: 13th in total air yards in 2017, 26th in 2016
What happened to Amari’s downfield catch rate last year? Positive regression coming, right?
One of only two teams (NYG the other) where no back broke a 60% snap share more than once.

imo, Ajayi’s touches trended up late bc their game scripts did. Don’t see huge upside for him bc of committee.
I worry about opportunity for secondary pieces. Brown and Bell combined to miss 3.5 games last year, but PIT was still extremely concentrated.

% of skill pos. PPR pts accounted for by top two PPR scorers:
PIT: 53.2%
HOU: 49.6%
LAR: 48.1%
LAC: 47.1%
RB targets were heavily influenced by QB last year
RBs: 1 rush TD all season
Graham: 8 of 10 TDs from 6 yards or closer
Mariota’s pass TD rates:
2015: 5.1%
2016: 5.8%
2017: 2.9%
We're finally done with Washington
Chris Thompson: 7.8 yards per touch (tops among RBs with 50+ touches)
Also, TDs on 5.8% of touches (6th among RBs w/ 50+)

(He's also older than you prob realize. Rookie in 2013. Wasn't like a young gun breaking out.)

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