There are many ostensibly politically sophisticated climate activists who think the way to move the GOP into a better place on climate policy is to never discuss climate change or climate science. This is maddening self delusion. <THREAD> axios.com/newsletters/ax…#axiosgenerate
1/ The battle over climate science is the battle that wins (or loses) the war. Denialisms know this in their bones. Why don't climate realists? And increasing Republican awareness of the scientific consensus DOES move them. Now, the lit review. climatechangecommunication.org/wp-content/upl…
13/ Long ago, Republican pollster Frank Lunz told the GOP exactly this--If you lose on the science, you lose the political fight against climate action. If you muddy up the science, you win. The science fight is pretty much everything. motherjones.com/files/LuntzRes…
14/ Republicans are never going to be tricked into shutting down coal, oil, and eventually, natural gas industries with happy talk abt clean air and jobs. Only by making the case that warming represents an existential risk to the planet, the economy, and our kids will they move.
15/ A heavy lift, sure, but that's what's required. Dodging these issues might make for an easier conversation, but it is a conversation that goes nowhere (policy-wise).
16/ While confrontation over climate science and policy within the GOP might appear hopeless, political scientist David Karol argues some reason for hope. But the fight can't be won if activists decide to not fight in the first place. <END> niskanencenter.org/wp-content/upl…
"DENIALISTS know this in their bones." Damned Twitter auto-correct!
Addendum--"We find that corrections from Republicans speaking against their partisan interest are most likely to persuade respondents to acknowledge and agree with the scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change." That's why we do what we do. link.springer.com/article/10.100…
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A group of self-appointed ideological policemen have petitioned @PostOpinions to quit identifying opinion writer @JRubinBlogger as a conservative. This is a teachable moment, so let’s dig in to this to make some larger and more important points. <THREAD> dailywire.com/news/36687/con…
1/ Consider the list of indictments they’ve offered. How in the hell does a commitment to limited government, free enterprise, and a robust national defense (the core commitments of modern conservatism) inform how she or anyone else should think about ...
2/ ... Trump’s misogyny, the Ford-Kavanaugh accusations, our declining standing in the world (being laughed at around the world, after all, is something Donald Trump repeatedly thundered about when HE was running for president), or Republican electoral fortunes going forward?
To those on the right worked into a lather about how it's not "conservative" to address climate related damages and risks to future generations via taxing or regulating GhG emissions, Sen. Barry Goldwater ("Mr. Conservative") has this to say in "The Consciernce of a Majority."
And if any of the self-appointed guardians of the conservative gospel doubt that these sentiments were a deep part of Goldwater's thinking (even if not always perfectly upheld in the political arena), they would be well-advised to read this first. jstor.org/stable/2576448…
Now, I care not one whit if acting against climate change comports with contemporary understanding of the conservative gospel. I care far more about whether acting comports with what we know about the science of climate change and the risks it poses to our future. Facts>Ideology.
The political landscape within the Democratic and Republican parties is not what you think it is, at least according to Prof. Larry Bartels of "Democracy for Realists" fame. In a new paper, he blows away a lot of conventional wisdom. <LONG THREAD>
1/ Bartels' paper examines a November 2017 YouGov survey of 2,000 people, all of whom were originally interviewed in 2015 and 2016 as part of YouGov's 2016 Cooperative Campaign Analysis Project. vanderbilt.edu/csdi/includes/…
2/ He considers 43 data points re social views, policy preferences, and feelings about politically salient groups. He then constructs two summary dimensions reflecting the major bases of disagreement between and within the two parties: Limited Government and Cultural Conservatism
This is increasingly the conventional narrative. It is wrong on several critical points. So let’s discuss. <THREAD> axios.com/newsletters/ax…
1/ Party orthodoxy has hardly changed at all under Trump. For instance, anti-immigration sentiment dominated pro-immigration sentiment in the pages of conservative publications and over the air-waves of right-wing TV and radio for more than a decade now.
2/ Likewise, anti-globalism (manifested in fears that Americans were being ripped off in trade deals and burdened by grasping international free-riders) has been in the GOP since Goldwater. Longstanding anti-UN sentiment means something more and has very deep roots.
The libertarian-to-Nazi feeder system for the alt-right is becoming an all-too-common tale. Libertarians should think very hard about why that is <THREAD> nytimes.com/2017/11/25/us/…