Thread by @DanielaGabor

In early July, I expressed serious doubts that #IMF SBA program in Argentina is going to stay on track for long. The program, I argued, 'assumes that fiscal & monetary tightening will restore investor confidence, but ignores the tightening of global liquidity conditions'.

https://twitter.com/TomasLukin/status/1026297663069671425

here we are, six weeks later, and #IMF announces that it will revise the terms of its SBA with Argentina ' In consideration of the more adverse international market conditions, which had not been fully anticipated in the original program' imf.org/en/News/Articl…

I also said in my interview with @pagina12 that I expected
1. Argentina to renegotiate terms of IMF agreement ✔️
2. New agreement to ask for more monetary & fiscal austerity (Lagarde's 'strong' policies) ✔️
3. The new agreement to test limits of socially acceptable✔️

this, I should add, does not come as a surprise to anyone who has lived through IMF conditionality. It is the modus operandi.

the Argentina peso story is not exactly making the case for Turkey to turn to IMF ft.com/content/3dfe39…

that #IMF feeling when your star pupil does everything you ask and is doing worse than Turkey.

https://twitter.com/ReutersJamie/status/1035063474769018880

now we know what 'strong' monetary policy means - Argentina hikes interest rates to 60%, peso in freefall

https://twitter.com/ReutersJamie/status/1035163427759640576

#Argentina peso collapse an instructive example that local currency securities markets + open capital accounts does not make for resilient finance #globafinancialcycle

https://twitter.com/MilwaukeeBonds/status/1035168017657802752

in other good news, #Argentina is about to name as Economy Minister someone who thinks government finances are the same as household finances.