Thread on why the Obama Economy™ was a dead man walking, and why that has quickly changed, thanks to deregulation and the Tax Bill.
Check this out: Small Business Confidence at Highest Point in 15 Year History of the Poll. 👇

Some context:

15 Years Ago:
- 2003, market was just getting back on its feet from Dot Com Bubble
- 2007, Great Recession
- 2010, Dodd-Frank (DF) passed, stifling community banks and inhibiting small-business loans
- 2018, DF rollback begins, championed by President Trump
The rollback of DF is crucial for the success of our economy. This is now a bipartisan position.
DF disproportionately impacted community banks. These small banks are the biggest drivers of growth in the economy through small business lending. The consolidation that has occurred in banking as a direct result of DF harms consumers.

The actual economy knows how disastrous this legislation has been. According to small business owners, one of the top 10 problems facing small business owners has been Unreasonable Government Regulations. This is not a small sample size.

Note what the #1 challenge facing small business is. Also note that the NFIB produces this report roughly every four years. Can you think of another piece of Obama-era legislation that was passed that directly impacted health insurance costs??? 🤔
So, we have established over-regulation produced a strangle hold on the economy. But time and time again, the lefties shout about how great the economy was. Here is how to counteract their untenable positions.
The left most often cites the unemployment rate as the most striking measure of the health of the economy. Do people have jobs or not? Well, yes and no.

The unemployment rate was decreasing throughout the course of Obama's two terms, but that is only part of the picture.
I prefer these two measures infinitely more than the unemployment rate.

To the uninitiated: The government's official definition of unemployment excludes those who are no longer seeking employment, but do wish to be employed. This data set only shows up in the Labor Force stats.
As you can see, despite the economy facing the worst recession in 80 years, the labor force continued to grow. But look at the Labor Force Participation Rate. A swift nose dive ensued, indeed to record lows.

Want to know where else these stats are reflected? Welfare Benefits.
Here is Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program participation from 1969 to 2016. Notice the sharp and persistent rise in those claiming benefits during Obama's presidency.
Let's add a little bit more context. If unemployment is decreasing, but benefits claims increasing, how else would that be reflected in the data? Perhaps we need to examine part-time employment numbers?

Again, we see a sharp and persistent rise in part-time employment.
Folks, the Obama economy was a joke. Record numbers of people who wanted a job, but had simply given up. There were no opportunities, there was no GDP growth, there was only $85B/month for 1st tier lenders to prop up the stock market.
Here's the performance of the Dow Jones under Obama and the GDP growth rates.

The Dow tripled while the GDP struggled to grow at 2% consistently. You mean to tell me these numbers are even marginally correlated? Yeah right.
But a new era has dawned. Trumponomics has taken the American economy by storm, and we are experiencing rapid growth.

2Q18 GDP growth revised up to 4.2%.
Consumer spending is rising, thanks to the Tax Bill.
Record corporate earnings, thanks to the Tax Bill.
And finally, wages at their highest levels since 2008. All of this despite labor force participation still being low.…
Trump has taken the shackles off the U.S. economy, and everyone is being lifted.

Voters are taking notice.…
Guys, there is no #BlueWave2018. The economy is the ultimate determining factor behind whether the incumbent party sees victory in the polls.
Push this data far and wide. Show how Trump is making a meaningful impact on the bank accounts of all Americans, even those lefties who hate him.

And VOTE in November.

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More from @Pharaoh03143129

Sep 3, 2018
The (likely) possibility of the yield curve inverting within the next couple of months cannot be viewed as the rock-solid indicator of economic recession that it has been in the past.
A couple of reasons why:

1. The Fed bought trillions of dollars of U.S. debt following the Financial Crisis in an effort to keep long-term rates low
2. The Fed is now raising short-term rates in an effort to flatten the curve and normalize rates
This artificial manipulation of the markets through trillions of dollars of bond buying means we must also manipulate our view towards the indicator in light of the change in context.
Read 11 tweets

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