Thread by @WylieNewmark

A #counterintelligence thread in the sense that I'm analyzing a foreign intelligence situation: I've been reading some very interesting analyses on the #Zakharchenko assassination and it's gotten me thinking about how this incident may or may not relate to FSB's role in Donbas /1

The first analysis I found useful was from @MarkGaleotti, and it emphasizes that it is doubtful that #Zakharchenko's death is move the situation towards peace. He mentions Dmitry Trapeznikov and Denis Pushilin as possible successors. /2
themoscowtimes.com/articles/war-p…

This article mentioned the thread I'm going to be pulling on here: the fact that #Zakharchenko and Alexander Timofeev, Z's tax minister sidekick who was injured in the blast, orchestrated the takeover of major illegal economies in Donbas - putting targets on their backs. /3

The second analysis comes from the @CarnegieRussia, with a larger focus on #Zakharchenko's role within his "generation" of Donbas separatist leaders and suggested that his most likely successor is SBU officer-turned-separatist Alexander Khodakovsky. /4 carnegie.ru/commentary/771…

The author emphasizes this would parallel the fact that in 2017 the then-leader of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR; the twin to #Zakharchenko's Donetsk's People's Republic/DNR) was replaced by another SBU officer-turned-separatist, Leonid Pasechnik. /5

This author suggested that if Khodakovsky does take over DNR, it could signal that Russia might try and push for reintegration of the western regions into Ukraine to distort whole-of-country elections with a stronger pro-Russian voting bloc. Interesting theory, but I doubt it. /6

The use of former Ukrainian security officials in leadership roles makes sense from both a practical standpoint (ex., they are operators) and a political one (ex., they have more potential cachet with Ukrainians). The best proxies are those with as much legitimacy as possible /7

Again in that article, it is noted how #Zakharchenko & Timofeev (Z&T)'s control of illegal trade in the area may have earned them hostile attention because they were viewed as being too powerful and greedy. /8

For what its worth, @WarsawInstitute has attributed Pasechnik's rise in LNR to an FSB victory over the GRU for dominance of regional influence and direction. It describes FSB as since then being the leading Russian "curator" in the region. /9 warsawinstitute.org/donbass-coup-d…

The piece also describes how Putin's adviser Vladislav Surkov has aligned with GRU to push the strategy of returning a largely autonomous (but heavily Russian influenced) Donbas to Ukraine, in order to be able to influence Ukraine as a whole through that "autonomous region". /10

This is contrasted with the FSB's view of how to handle Donbas: don't return an inch of territory, unite the DNR and the LNR, and then use the new united entity to harass and destabilize Ukraine. The ascent of Pasechnik was a win for the FSB and it's regional policies. /11

This brings me to the third analysis: that from @meduza_en. Here, the idea of Z&T having earned themselves the black spot is the "second theory" presented and is well-explained. This was also the first to mention Serhiy Kurchenko... /12 meduza.io/en/feature/201…

The Meduza piece emphasizes Kurchenko's role as the Russian end of illegal trade in the region. He's a wealthy Ukrainian oligarch hiding from a post-Yanukovych arrest warrant, under sanctions, highly security conscious and connected to the FSB. /13 theins.ru/korrupciya/494…

The Warsaw Institute claims Kurchenko got the ball rolling the putsch in the LNR that enabled Pasechnik's rise there by complaining to the FSB that the then-leader of the LNR (who had Surkov & GRU backing) was "taxing exports" too highly. /14 warsawinstitute.org/fsb-cheka-2-0/

So, from all of these pieces, a possible narrative emerges around FSB interests. Kurchenko had reason to want both Z&T dead because of their control over DNR trade and the FSB may have a charismatic former SBU officer in the wings amidst the DNR leadership. /15

(FWIW I don't know if Alexander Khodakovsky is tied to the FSB, but considering how riddled with FSB assets SBU was under Yanukovych, it would not surprise me. Also, a number of SBU officials have aligned themselves with the FSB since Maidan. /16) wsj.com/articles/how-s…

So, the goal of killing #Zakharchenko becomes twofold: secure higher profits from illegal trade via Kurchenko (who cuts FSB in for patronage & protection) + attempt to get things in motion to bring DNR closer to the LNR leadership model backed by the FSB at the expense of GRU /17

This would be a coup for the FSB in financial terms and political terms, particular in terms of dominance over Donbas proxies while the GRU is still recovering from the LNR putsch in 2017 and is more focused on Syria. But at the end of the day, who knows? /18

I like this theory because it accommodates a lot of the moving parts and speaks to my own views about the FSB's activities in the region. That said, some other theories about the assassination are very valid and I'm admittedly newer to Donbas politics. So, grain of salt here /19~

Addendum: for tactical details on the actual assassination, I highly recommend this massive thread.

https://twitter.com/lennutrajektoor/status/1036151288101306368