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In today's edition of "The GRU don't need no stinkin' tradecraft", which is becoming a #counterintelligence tradition, we have the UK charging of the 2 GRU officers who carried out the Skripal attack. Here's the timeline assembled by Scotland Yard. /1 news.met.police.uk/news/counter-t…
This thread by @BBCDomC lays out the movements and footage described the Met in a very digestible thread. I highly recommend taking a look at it for reference alongside the Met's dry recitation of same. /2
https://twitter.com/BBCDomC/status/1037305083015442432
The amount of detail and evidence the Met amassed about these officers' (Petrov & Boshirov) movements recalls the exposure of the Mossad operation that killed Mahmoud Al-Mabhouh in Dubai. This feels very much like that, which should embarrass the GRU. /3 spiegel.de/international/…
PM May's statement in Parliament on did a lot in few words. She tied the individuals to the GRU, said the op would've had to be approved at senior levels outside of GRU (echoing the language re: Putin in the Litvinenko Inquiry), & brought in Interpol. /4 bbc.co.uk/news/uk-454214…
NYT's coverage expanded further on May's remarks, which put this case in the broader context of the GRU's high profile operational successes & failures that have usually been blown by bad luck and worse OPSEC. /5 nytimes.com/2018/09/05/wor…
As I've said, the GRU is probably the subject of mixed feelings in the Kremlin right now. Unlike some of the other GRU OPSEC failures I've talked about, Putin had to know this attack would come back to Russia/GRU/the Kremlin. The choice of weapon & target made that inevitable. /6
But the fact that the GRU officers are getting publicly raked over the coals the way the Mossad operators involved in the Al-Mabhouh hit were does make the GRU look less than competent - which to Putin makes Russia look less than competent. He hates that. /7
Other outlets have already been able to dig up even more on Petrov & Boshirov, including the use of passports in those names throughout Europe. The West & the press now get to dissect two GRU officers at will, twisting the knife ad nauseam. /8
https://twitter.com/LincolnPigman/status/1037371966590799872
Remember that Putin is a Chekist: he served in the KGB's First & Second Chief Directorates, was FSB Director from 1998-1999, and his favorite service these days is the FSB. As a Chekist, he was professionally shaped in a culture that derided and looked down on the GRU. /9
Therefore, this litany of GRU screw-ups or blown operations speaks to Putin's innately held biases against the GRU and runs counter to the GRU's narrative of "Look how well we've done in Ukraine and Syria and the US election!". It's all grist for the FSB's mill. /10
All that said, this case is less likely to earn Putin's ire than other failures (like the Mueller indictments or Montenegro) because given the brazenness of the operation Putin would've known and accepted this was all possible if not likely. But still not great timing for GRU /11
What's now more than likely is that, in order to save face, Putin's apparatus will lionize these officers the same way that Litvinenko's killers were. The idea that we might see these guys in the Duma isn't really off the mark. /12
https://twitter.com/lennutrajektoor/status/1037304550598881280
Privately, I am less sure that the GRU as an organization will benefit from this. I think overall, this is another bruise for the boys in the Aquarium and the FSB will probably try to take advantage of that. Time will tell how bad of a bruise it really is. /13~
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