Lion & Unicorn Profile picture
Sep 8, 2018 15 tweets 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
The pro-Corbyn take on a new party/PLP split seems deeply muddled. The repeated charge that the SDP kept Thatcher in power, and that a new party could do the same for today's Tories, contains an unspoken admission that there *is* an electoral constituency for such a party. (1/?)
Even if all of the new party's support came from 2017 Labour voters (a highly unlikely outcome) that would still indicate that a significant minority of Labour's base strongly favours a different leader and a more centre-left platform. (2/?)
The balance of power between Left and Right inside the Labour Party may have shifted dramatically to the former, but the fact remains that Labour is a broad electoral coalition, and that preserving said coalition (in some form) is crucial to Corbyn entering government. (3/?)
There was probably no way of preserving Labour's internal coalition after Corbyn became leader (although L&U suggested one after #GE2017: thelionandunicorn.wordpress.com/2017/06/09/a-g…). But as power lies with the Left, the Left has more levers to limit/repair the damage from a split. (4/?)
Backing (or at least not blocking) de-selection and mandatory re-selection, is not going to limit the extent and vitriol of the coming split - it will hasten and harden it. Similarly, allowing high-profile Left outriders to denounce and goad figures from the Labour Right. (5/?)
(Note: many on Labour's Right have behaved atrociously since 2015, but there is no obvious benefit in engaging aggressively with these critics - it sustains negative stories and so crowds out positive messages. The Left should appear more sinned against than sinning.) (6/?)
If Labour enters government after the next election, it will likely have done so because it has a) avoided a major split, or b) co-ordinated with the new party. These outcomes seem unlikely, but they're made no more likely by the Left's current hostility to the Right. (7/?)
A stable Corbyn govt will depend on some kind of compromise with MPs or parties with a politics currently represented by the so-dubbed 'Blairites' and 'Red Tories'. This compromise is going to be much harder if the Left keeps up its current retaliatory/attacking stance. (8/?)
Regardless of how the Left's approach to splitters and internal critics develops, there's also a strong possibility that a Corbyn govt would need to agree a Westminster pact with the SNP and or the Lib Dems. (9/?)
Whether or not mandatory re-selection or mass de-selections occur, whether or not Labour splitters form a new party, all of Corbyn's most likely paths to power run through compromise with more 'centrist' politicians. (10/?)
The rage inside Labour has probably gone too far, there probably isn't a compromise strategy that could work now. The de/re-selections and likely new party will fatally damage Labour, either by keeping the Tories in power or making a Corbyn government unworkably unstable. (11/?)
And that tragedy is as much of the Left's making as it is of the Right's. Corbynism has had the upper-hand since 2015, and quite evidently so since the failed 2016 'coup' and the subsequent general election result. But that hand has been played divisively and defensively. (12/?)
And at root that's because Corbyn's greatest appeal is also his greatest weakness: he isn't much of a politician. He's never done big tents, and when he does compromise and pragmatism he does them late and awkwardly. (13/?)
In short, the Left aren't going to adopt a conciliatory long-term strategy under Corbyn, Labour will split bitterly, and so a Left govt will either fail or remain a pipe dream. And it won't be the fault of a new SDP. (14/14)
PS: I wish I'd ended this thread as follows: "One likely irony of Labour's coming divorce is that the very people who won't compromise to save the marriage may end up doing so to take the House." Geddit?

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Lion & Unicorn

Lion & Unicorn Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(