Josh Wolfe Profile picture
Sep 9, 2018 3 tweets 1 min read Read on X
1/ If only TECH (high-speed cameras + line and net sensors) were used #UsOpenFinal Women Championship would’ve been only about the PLAYERS, their skill, their luck, their errors...
2/ Instead it was CONTEST of HUMAN misjudgment—not CONTEST of skill

HUMAN ref misjudged/overreacted to human communication (Serena, coach)

...triggered HUMAN defense (Serena) + protest of human (ref) misjudgment

...Serena protest was deemed overreaction + punished by human ref
3/ NO reason TODAY for a chair umpire.

As Buffett said of newspapers. If the internet existed first, newspapers wouldn’t.

If technology (high-speed cameras + net & line sensors) existed first, tennis umpires wouldn’t.

Obsolescent.

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More from @wolfejosh

Oct 8, 2018
1/ Observation on “Personal space”.

(It is better to first make OBSERVATIONS over PREDICTIONS—to see what is over what may be)

Already widely appreciated:

technology allows us to be at once MORE connected to those far away...
2/ And also to be LESS connected to those immediately close to us...
3/ It allows us to experience shared AUDIO with no regard to personal physical space in a large group...
Read 6 tweets
Oct 6, 2018
1/There is a (self-referential) paradox I will call 'satisfying frustration' or 'frustrating satisfaction' ––

––of the class of problems that we KNOW we will never KNOW...
2/ The Golbach Conjecture (of knowing if all even #'s are the sum of 2 primes) thus far tested up to 400,000,000,000,000...
3/ The frustration of applying a halting program and testing it a 'Turing Halting' on itself...
Read 4 tweets
Oct 4, 2018
1/ At @sfiscience annual meeting on RISK in NYC.

Pantheon of practicioner geniuses gathered.

First up:
-Bill Miller @B3_MillerValue
-Cliff Asness @CliffordAsness
-Bethany McLean @bethanymac12
-Marty Liebowitz (Vice Chair, Morgan Stanley)
2/ @CliffordAsness:

Two most dangerous words in risk: "worst case"

Cliff is saying always ask with skepticism someone with certainty then was the alleged worst case before that worst case. The worst case isn't the worst case til...the worst case.
3/ Key risks
Bill @B3_MillerValue
Benign market in bonds. They're (perceived safe) but may be horribly risky & could see them go to 6% in next few years.

Bethany @bethanymac12
Could be pension funds reaching for yield with low yielding 'safe asseta' + investing more in PE / HFs
Read 8 tweets
Sep 30, 2018
1/ Here's example where I had thesis & my partners questioned market structure

Decade-long thesis in F&F (flavors + fragrances) had us seeking biotech-like compound discovery for new or substitute flavors

But IFF, Firmemich, Givaudon have oligopoly—

—Why $ exits are too small
2/ Technologically we will no doubt have companies doing cool discovery + new processes & partnerships with Coke, Pepsi, Nestle, Cadbury, etc as market seeks less sugar, salt substitutes, “natural” flavors etc.

But what is good for consumers ain’t always great for investors...
3/ Instincts and intuitions (in the form of conjecture and hypothesis) meet skepticism and “outside views” (in form of criticism).

Grateful Lux has culture of intellectually honest and intellectually sparring partners to help us “trend to truth”...
Read 4 tweets
Sep 23, 2018
Here are 3 brilliant things
(all connected in cool way)

1/ FIRST: This article on how evolution left us ill-equipped for modernity

The title “Only human, after all” triggered a memory...
ft.com/content/0df233…
2/ The phrase “Only human, after all”—

—for most triggers Rag’n’Bone Man (2016)


—for me triggers lyric from few-hit wonder Level42 (33 yrs ago + launch of New Wave)
‘And it's not so wrong, we're ONLY HUMAN AFTER ALL”


which...->
3/ Which triggers
—-peer newwave sound by Tears for Fears (original video here)...


—-but WAY better cult-classic vid scene from 1 of my top movies* ‘Donnie Darko’


*Point Break
Things to Do in Denver...
So I Married Axe Murderer;
Read 4 tweets
Sep 23, 2018
1/ Several measure of markets— (relied on by global investors and policy makers)
—are showing curious signs.

Take the “Fed Model”:
bond yields move in line with earnings yield (inverse P/E).

If bond yields📈 stocks📉 to provide a higher yield to compete with bonds....
2/ YET:
US bond yields are up recently (+should drive USD higher, attracting inflows)—
while US stocks are at peaks (and USD got weaker)

Since the .com bust the Fed Model proved questionable...
3/ Rising rates ought be bad for US equities (adding to interest expense, burden to service debts, raise more cash, etc)

Indeed bond yields 📈on employment data which implied future inflation—which implied higher yields + higher interest rates + stocks 📉

Meanwhile...
Read 6 tweets

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