There's a chance that Republicans cooperating on a Trump impeachment is just #NeverTrump fantasy. But there's also a chance the polls keep slipping and the GOP decides they're better off trying to run Pence in 2020.

The question is, what's the baseline below which he can't fall?
Trump fans will assess it high, but introspection is a lousy substitute for data.

However, the same warning applies to #NeverTrump folks.
However, with the caveat that this is highly speculative and pretty unlikely: what happens if the GOP goes to Trump and says "We're getting ready to impeach you. You wanna resign, or you want us to take you out?"

I suspect Trump holds on until the bitter end.

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More from @asymmetricinfo

Oct 6, 2018
Okay, y'all, my beloved Yankees are having ... let us call it a slow start to this playoff series. We're going to get it back, of course, and crush our historic enemies into fine, red-and-white dust. But in the meantime, I'm breathing deeply and focusing on my happy place.
This seems like a good time to tweetstorm my most recent two--and I hope, final--columns on The Kavanaugh Saga.……

I think there are a few things that tie them together.
The first is just the obvious: basically all of the left who read my coverage of Kavanaugh assumed that this was a crypto-brief for confirming him. It wasn't. Right up until the end, I was emailing with other folks on the right saying I didn't know. That's still where I am.
Read 20 tweets
Oct 5, 2018
Collins starts ripping into the people who promulgated the "outlandish" Swetnick allegation. Which comports with something that I've observed: the sense that media & Democrats had prejudged the case radicalized a lot of moderate Republicans who had been dubious about nomination.
A lot of people are responding with some version of "If moderate Republicans are so delicate and fickle, to heck with them." I've stripped out the profanity and the vulgar suggestions about things I could do to myself because this is a family twitter feed.
In fact, I have great sympathy with this argument; I don't think that confirming Kavanaugh to "own the libs" is a good idea. On many levels it's a very bad idea, starting with personal morality and ending with what it does to our civic fabric.
Read 5 tweets
Oct 3, 2018
A number of people have asked me what I think of the NYTimes omnibus on Trump's inheritance.

In no particular order:
1) Almost everyone seems to be missing that this was tax arbitrage, not tax evasion. He was converting estate taxed money into income-taxed income. The size of the net benefit is somewhat uncertain because the conversion lost the benefits of tax deferral until death.
2) How much of it was illegal, and how much of it was just "Stuff we don't think should be legal" is unclear to me, because I Am Not a Tax Lawyer". Complicated by the fact that the tax rules changed massively in 1986.
Read 5 tweets
Oct 1, 2018
Cosign. People are manufacturing statements that he never drank, or got drunk, then beating the snot out of their strawman. He tried to frame his drinking in the best possible light, but he didn't lie about it, and no, that's not perjury. Temperament & partisanship are real q's.
Also, I'm more than willing to believe that he lied about dumb phrases in his yearbook. But those bro-tastic phrases were--however awful--not even approaching corroboration that he's a rapist.
My college boyfriend who punched me, maybe intentionally, and verbally abused me from Day 3 of our relationship, was an ostentatious feminist. And the brotastic football player I dated after him was the one who convinced me I'd been abused. Public affect is not private behavior.
Read 6 tweets
Sep 30, 2018
It's Sunday morning. Let's do a forensic dive into the question of Mark Judge's employment at the Potomac Village Safeway in 1982, which for some reason, the FBI is apparently not authorized to investigate. Let's talk about why, and how much, it matters.
Why does it matter? Because Ford testified that she had seen Mark Judge six to eight weeks after the attack, when he was working in that Safeway.…
That gives us a timeframe. According to Mark Judge's memoir, which we will assume for the nonce is accurate (not a great assumption, but all we've got for now), he worked there for "a few weeks" to earn money for football camp. Football camp started August 23rd, 1982.
Read 16 tweets
Sep 28, 2018
Okay, my new column on the Kavanaugh debacle is up:…

I'm going to lay out my position first, which is that this nomination should be held for at least a time-limited FBI investigation.

And then I'm going to detail how badly Democrats handled this.
Mitchell's questioning yesterday raised a few small questions about Ford's story. But it raised immense and infuriating questions about the cynical ways Democrats managed this.

It is now simply untenable to argue that this was not a strategic leak to try to delay past midterms.
Dianne Feinstein helped Ford get a lawyer, and doesn't give her Republican counterparts a heads up that they might have a problem?

Okay, they say "She asked for confidentiality."

Fine. Democrats are the ones who breached that confidentiality.
Read 21 tweets

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