Jojo Pasion Malig Profile picture
Sep 11, 2018 15 tweets 8 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
More relevant than a conversation between someone and his lawyer: #Mangkhut has gone super on JTWC's category of typhoons.
Super Typhoon #Mangkhut, which is expected to hit extreme north Luzon this weekend, is currently packing max winds of 250 kph and 305 kph gusts, based on JTWC's 1-minute readings.
JTWC expects Super Typhoon #Mangkhut to continue its explosive intensification in 36 hours, reaching max winds of 277 kph and 333 kph gusts before slightly weakening as it nears northern Luzon.
Yes, I did knots to kph conversions thrice to make sure: #Mangkhut will have max sustained winds of 277 kph and 333 kph gusts at peak intensity, according to the US Navy and Air Force's Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
How strong is #Mangkhut compared to Yolanda/Haiyan? The latter had the one-minute sustained winds of 315 kph before landfall, per JTWC records.
PAGASA will have lower figures, because it uses 10-minute readings like Japan's weather bureau. We'll see if Mangkhut will reach 220 kph winds on PAGASA's readings that will see it declared locally as a super typhoon.
It will be a close shave for Cagayan and Ilocos Norte, per JMA forecast. But even without making landfall, Mangkhut's wide rain bands and strong winds will whip northern Luzon.
Latest forecasts of both PAGASA and JTWC as of Wednesday afternoon show #Mangkhut/Ompong possibly making landfall over northern Cagayan.
PAGASA says #Mangkhut/#OmpongPH may trigger 6-meter high storm surges (daluyong) in coastal areas in the path of the typhoon, particularly in Cagayan and Isabela, by Friday and Saturday.

Visual reference on storm surge heights:
JMA forecast also shows #Mangkhut | #OmpongPH making at least one landfall over Cagayan province.
Latest JTWC forecast says #OmpongPH | #Mangkhut has reached peak intensity; 278kph max sustained winds and 333kph gusts in 1-minute readings.
JTWC forecast says Ompong/Mangkhut will sustain current peak intensity for several hours before slightly weakening as it approaches Luzon.

Unless there's an eyewall replacement cycle before landfall, then all bets are off.
150 knots is roughly the takeoff speed of an Airbus A380.
Typhoon #OmpongPH / #Mangkhut and Metro Manila on a Wednesday night. /via Japan's Himawari 8 satellite.
JTWC says #OmpongPH / #Mangkhut intensified again, now packing 287 kph winds, 352 kph gusts in 1-minute readings.

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