Thread by @GDemacopoulos

I have a few (likely unpopular) thoughts and (likely wrong) predictions about how the #Ukrainian crisis is going to unfold.

1. Like everyone else who has been following this of late, I do suspect that the Ecumenical Patriarch will issue a Tomos of Autocephaly for the Ukrainian Orthodox Church and I suspect that will happen before Christmas.

2. I think the majority of other autocephalous churches will issue statements lamenting the situation and will delay issuing a formal response as to whether or not they recognize an independent Ukrainian Church.

2a. Some will immediately side with the Moscow Patriarchate because that is what they do; some will immediately side with the Ecumenical Patriarchate because that is what they do.

2b. For the first 5 year or so, the Churches to watch will be Serbia, Romania, etc., which have a history of independent and careful thinking. These churches will themselves be concerned about smaller territories within their own jurisdictions that might seek autocephaly.

2c. It is almost certain that everyone except Moscow will recognize Ukrainian autocephaly within 20 years or so (which, in Orthodox terms, is a rather short amount of time).

3. The Moscow Patriarchate has played every aspect of this drama poorly, both with respect to the Ukrainians and with respect to Constantinople.

3a. They thought they could sink the Council in Crete and they failed. They thought they could support a war in Eastern Ukraine without alienating Ukrainian Orthodox and were clearly wrong. They wrongly assumed that the Ecumenical Patriarch would fold under their threats.

4. Once this happens, the Moscow Patriarchate will certainly cease Liturgical recognition of the Ecumenical Patriarch. Although they will be tempted to do so, I do not think that they will break sacramental unity.

4a. If they do break sacramental unity, it will likely backfire against them because it will force the other jurisdictions to join them or not. Almost none of the others will do so.

5. Likely my most controversial prediction--this leads to the end of Patriarch Kyrll's tenure as Patriarch and Metropolitan Hilarion's tenure secretary of external affairs.

5a. It would be difficult to overstate what an embarrassment this entire situation is for them, for the Moscow Patriarchate and for Putin's vision of the Russian Church leading the world.

5b. The loss of Ukraine would constitute 1/3 of their parishes and laity. It would categorically belie their claim to be the leader of the Orthodox world. And it would undercut the entire Russki Mir (Russian World) project.

5c. If it is true that Putin is able to influence the Russian Church on a level on par with Tsars or Byzantine emperors as some have claimed. Then it is certainly true that he will not tolerate this kind of global embarrassment and he will find himself a new Patriarch.