Thread by @aliasvaughn

1. Manafort is INDEED in talks with prosecutors (MEANING MUELLER bc HE is the prosecutor in this case) about a possible plea deal. BLOOP, people. BLOOP!

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1039666889633488898

2. Two people familiar with the matter "cautioned that the negotiations may not result in a deal with special counsel Robert Mueller". Naturally, bc there won't be a deal unless Manafort sings like the birdiest birdie that has ever sung.

3. "But the discussions indicate a possible shift in strategy for Manafort" No kidding. When the prospect of the rest of his life in prison materialized, Manafort finally saw that oopsie, he was cornered and if he ever wanted to enjoy life again? Best to talk to Mueller, stat.

4. WaPo says: "The specifics of Manafort’s current negotiations with prosecutors were unclear, including whether he would provide any information about the president." Manafort can deliver both Pence and Trump. I don't think Mueller settles for anything less than "ALL OF IT".

5. 5. The other aspect of this is that Manafort & his lawyers at this point KNOW that a pardon is POINTLESS, bc Manafort will be nailed with state charges and spend the rest of his life in jail regardless. Hence why, as we've always said, his ONLY real option is flipping.

6. Trump, in his immense ignorance of the law (read: obstruction and witness tampering), praised Manafort for "not breaking" and "not making stories up to make a deal." NO ONE can make stuff up to get a deal, Dondon. Bc JAIL. Clearly Manafort prefers freedom to Trump's approval.

7. This is the key point for many, that people don't seem to fully grasp: most of these people don't have anything to gain from a pardon, bc state charges will anyway send them to jail. And this is exactly why Mueller has been coordinating with NY State AG from the start.

8. Not to forget we also have SDNY in the mix now, bc Mueller and Rosenstein branched out the Cohen investigation to them. And SDNY, Mueller and NY AG have been directly cooperating and coordinating. Bc of the double jeopardy rule, they don't take risks.

9. So understand this once and for all: the reason why NY State AG wants this double jeopardy rule to be removed is bc they can avoid coordinating with FBI on who brings which charges. BUT IF the rule stays, they will simply go on as they always did.Bring charges by coordinating.

10. The other interesting thing about this plea deal negotiations report, is that while Mueller's spox Peter Carr NEVER comments, in this case Manafort's spox isn't commenting either. Neither are Paulie's lawyers. Meaning: clearly true and can't comment, bc negotiations.

11. The essential point here is this: there is NO WAY Mueller even ENTERS a negotiating stage with Manafort unless FULL cooperation is on the table. This is BIG news bc we're talking about an actual plea deal and COOPERATION, not a simple guilty plea, that wouldn't happen.

12. Mueller has overwhelming evidence against Manafort for the DC trial, so he has ZERO interest in letting him just plead guilty so his sentence can be shortened. He can nail him for maximum time. These are plea deal negotiations as in a COOPERATION agreement.

13. What the cooperation might involve, we can't know, but Manafort PICKED Pence and tricked Trump into meeting with him for longer so that he would ensure his VP seat. So he FOR SURE can deliver Pence. Would that be enough for Mueller, going from bottom to top? Maybe.

14. The thing is, Manfort can also deliver Trump and he can do so bc of the MONEY trail, bc he was the one talking to certain players *cough* Deripaska *cough* who are Putin's money people. So why would Mueller settle for "just Pence"? That might be one of the negotiating points.

15. Mueller is the boss here, he's a million steps ahead of everyone & he knows exactly what he's doing. So if there is a plea deal? We may not find out about the COOPERATION part in full or at all, bc they can seal that, but rest assured that no cooperation, no deal for Paulie.

16. Mueller also doesn't necessarily NEED Manafort, bc he may already have enough evidence. But the fact negotiations are on, suggests that Manfort may have intel that others don't have OR that he may be a key witness to events that Mueller needs further corroboration for.

17. Buckle up, because if Manafort flips? L'enfant orange is going to throw THE biggest tantrum we've seen yet. Or.. maybe this is what's been reported to him among other things, and that's why we've seen the latest crazy. Either way: #MuellerIsComing /END